tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5654350228580136714..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Hot prices, cold earningsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13530794047386941682016-03-12T02:48:04.875+00:002016-03-12T02:48:04.875+00:00Any reccos on basic reading on patterns - head/sho...Any reccos on basic reading on patterns - head/shoulder or the base as mentioned above for GDXplatterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14792783857348465463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80797282141767901452016-03-09T08:30:33.794+00:002016-03-09T08:30:33.794+00:00@Anon 9:43PM Frankly I think the biggest twat here...@Anon 9:43PM Frankly I think the biggest twat here is you. Goodbye troll.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10628172553153121952016-03-08T23:04:40.994+00:002016-03-08T23:04:40.994+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26474972276563805862016-03-08T21:43:49.896+00:002016-03-08T21:43:49.896+00:00jbtfd said...
anon 1:12 - I just hope for you... jbtfd said...<br /><br /> anon 1:12 - I just hope for your p&l's sake you haven't been short equities and commodities for the past few weeks.<br /><br /> Saying all that, I'd love a pullback in spx so I can buy more before we get higher prices.<br /><br />Well, isn't that stupid? Why do you need a pullback? Is your buying model dependent on stocks taking a step back before they go two steps forward? Why not just buy 24/7? You'd make more money that way! <br /><br />Or you could be 12 years old, and as someone has already mentioned, a twat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30783838303661404642016-03-08T21:16:15.358+00:002016-03-08T21:16:15.358+00:00Anon 4.35 - at least jbtfd had the decency to only...Anon 4.35 - at least jbtfd had the decency to only crow once things had zoomed.<br /> In your case, I think you've got your screen upside down. <br /><br />LB- there we go my old son.. metals cracked first. watching copper as ever. Oil really hung in much longer than I was expecting all morning. But finally . creeeeak the whole lot did the roll over Beethoven. <br /><br />Now it's much harder to call but bias should be more down at least for next few days. momo models have driven much of this and the thing with algos is they don't fill in sentiment surveys. Though of course everyone tries to guess how they feel thru futures positioning surveys. <br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1497747910344562962016-03-08T19:24:57.560+00:002016-03-08T19:24:57.560+00:00In my previous comment, I left out an important wo...In my previous comment, I left out an important word: As an aside, Target2 <b>imbalances</b> continue seemingly...<br /><br />EuroCrisisMonitor has good data on Target2. MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7726625107882266472016-03-08T19:21:32.338+00:002016-03-08T19:21:32.338+00:00So someone help me out - what are the realistic op...So someone help me out - what are the realistic options in front of Draghi this week? I can't seem to find a good summary. What would shock and awe entail? What assets would be targeted? <br /><br />As an aside, Target2 continue seemingly unabated in Euroland. As long as the economies of Northern Europe are more productive, these balances will continue to accrue. This seems like a long term problem....MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8290336263862397952016-03-08T17:56:19.645+00:002016-03-08T17:56:19.645+00:00That's an awfully odd comment when stocks are ...That's an awfully odd comment when stocks are down on the day and the year. But I don't want to feed the trolls, particularly ones so pisspoor at basic math. Please consider those types of comments superfluous to further discussions, oh dipbuyers of the world.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23521924286416952442016-03-08T17:11:33.235+00:002016-03-08T17:11:33.235+00:00Once again buyers step up and bid up equities. Fol...Once again buyers step up and bid up equities. Folks there's a pattern here: if the day ends in "y" and it's the US session, expect equities to rally ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3929435627656423612016-03-08T16:15:10.383+00:002016-03-08T16:15:10.383+00:00Adam Richmond, of Morgan Stanley:
The voracious a...Adam Richmond, of Morgan Stanley:<br /><br />The voracious appetite for corporate bonds is now highly concentrated in the Investment Grade space. Only $21B of HY corporates have been sold so far this year, and the last 6 months of 2015 tallied a paltry $92B<br /><br />Gross leverage at Investment Grade companies is back at decade’s highs<br /><br />EBITDA growth excluding energy was a modest 4% in Q4 of 2015. Including energy it was negative. It will get harder for companies to pile on more debt if their EBITDA growth does not accelerate<br /><br />Cash to Debt is also declining, although it remains above pre and post crisis levels. But the behemoth cash hoarders – Apple (AAPL), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), etc – do tend to skew the averages, and without those companies, the Cash to Debt ratio would look quite different<br /><br />Interest coverage is still very healthy at 10.8x, but it too is dropping<br /><br />This from Morgan Stanley...<br /><br />Buybacks for Q4 of last year were down 10% Y/Y and flat for 2015 as a whole.<br /><br />And this from Morningstar...<br /><br />Commercial Mortgage Back Securities of pre-crisis vintage. This is the worst CMBS paper out there. According to Morningstar, some $155B of CMBS coming due this year and the next will be paid off at 50 to 60 cents on the dollar.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26928875004659662502016-03-08T16:05:58.076+00:002016-03-08T16:05:58.076+00:00Fundamentals and the market parted ways back in 20...Fundamentals and the market parted ways back in 2013...<br /><br />http://imgur.com/czxBeXVAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55151999327867415192016-03-08T15:32:06.047+00:002016-03-08T15:32:06.047+00:00Vale & Fortescue tie up probably the reason fo...Vale & Fortescue tie up probably the reason for massive iron ore spike. In fairness it is a pretty big move and should stabilize prices at the 40-50 level, but 60 is just too high, IMO but that doesnt mean it cant go a bit higher in the near term.<br /><br />What we have seen though is a lot of new equity issuance from oil co's that was readily embraced and HY inflows. So there is NEW money coming into commodities even though I do agree with Currie's analysis that the cleanse isnt done. But if money flows it, its self fulfilling ( at least for now)<br /><br />* Week ended March 2 marked the highest weekly HY fund inflows on record of $4.967b, surpassing $4.2b in Oct. 2011<br /> New issues are trading well<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80755829029666185402016-03-08T15:23:01.786+00:002016-03-08T15:23:01.786+00:00ditto MM - plus, even going back further in histor...ditto MM - plus, even going back further in history, their record at nailing inflection points in the commodity super-cycle is not stellar either. Who can forget the calls by Currie and co., for crude to 'head to $200 and stay there' back in summer of 2008 - they were only proven wrong by $100 in short order.<br />And this is the crew thats the gold standard for calls on commodities, by the way….washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70037189367917540482016-03-08T14:45:19.124+00:002016-03-08T14:45:19.124+00:00Well, if the performance of their top trades is an...Well, if the performance of their top trades is anything to go by, it's a one-way ticket to the moon for commods, I guess...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82406188205232766312016-03-08T14:37:37.935+00:002016-03-08T14:37:37.935+00:00And then we get this today...
"Goldman Sachs...And then we get this today...<br /><br />"Goldman Sachs says commodity rally is unlikely to last<br /><br />The most influential bank in commodity markets believes the recent rally is unlikely to last and prices will reverse unless there is a sustained improvement in demand led by China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials<br /><br />In a series of reports published on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said the 20-month commodity rout had further to run and prices needed to remain lower for longer to rebalance markets that are still groaning under the weight of plentiful supplies.<br /><br />The Walls Street bank reserved its most bearish comments, however, for industrial metals, advising investors in another report to take positions betting against aluminium and copper prices, which it forecasts as falling 18-20 per cent during the next year"<br /><br /><br />They have a point on oil as inventories are still growing. Prices must drop at some point to clear.<br /><br />But appreciate ECB shock and awe has another run to go<br /> <br /><br />TraderJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17870637335405087110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59656465157243029122016-03-08T14:16:55.985+00:002016-03-08T14:16:55.985+00:00anon 1:12 - I just hope for your p&l's sak...anon 1:12 - I just hope for your p&l's sake you haven't been short equities and commodities for the past few weeks.<br /><br />Saying all that, I'd love a pullback in spx so I can buy more before we get higher prices.jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76471971490329296052016-03-08T13:31:13.160+00:002016-03-08T13:31:13.160+00:00Looks like a good price to take a seat and dependi...Looks like a good price to take a seat and depending on your persuasion, gamble on Draghi delivering "the asset" (QE expansion). After the disappointment last time, I would be surprised if he didn't over-deliver. <br /><br />The extent of the commodity based short covering surprised me: everything from iron ore squeeze, to petrobas to even Seadrill up over 100% on a day. I guess trash can really bounce when compacted!Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60080959465848797812016-03-08T13:12:55.160+00:002016-03-08T13:12:55.160+00:00No, you're right, we're clearly in a bull ...No, you're right, we're clearly in a bull market.<br /><br />1) SPX down on the year<br />2) Europe and Japan down on the year<br />3) China down on the year<br />4) Oil down on the year<br />5) Earnings fallingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38608161759186332482016-03-08T13:06:13.873+00:002016-03-08T13:06:13.873+00:00Folks, we're in a bear market. Common signs of...Folks, we're in a bear market. Common signs of a bear market: <br />1. stocks go up every day<br />2. when stocks temporarily drop they reverse on massive momentum gaining 50-100bps in mins<br />3. commodities goes up every day<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43692709406183350822016-03-08T12:50:35.390+00:002016-03-08T12:50:35.390+00:00Nah - that was my fault, I forgot to lockup the CB...Nah - that was my fault, I forgot to lockup the CB pen and Yellen & Greenie got out and were fighting over my keyboard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11661713005467758642016-03-08T12:48:40.547+00:002016-03-08T12:48:40.547+00:00Nah, pretty sure that was the illuminati, ramping ...Nah, pretty sure that was the illuminati, ramping just before they immanetise the eschaton.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21219236035740581272016-03-08T12:11:47.986+00:002016-03-08T12:11:47.986+00:00CB was just in the market. Dax up +100 in a couple...CB was just in the market. Dax up +100 in a couple of minutes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15343023830209494692016-03-08T09:22:13.550+00:002016-03-08T09:22:13.550+00:00According to the WSJ, the trailing p/e on the Russ...According to the WSJ, the trailing p/e on the Russell has ballooned to 687 in the recent rally amidst falling earnings. That never looks good.<br /><br />(do we believe it?)<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html<br /><br />Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.com