tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5643320647543937792..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: H is for HawkMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66215772351835457382019-12-10T10:20:30.656+00:002019-12-10T10:20:30.656+00:00nice post Thx UFABET คาสิโนฟรีเครดิตnice post Thx <a href="https://www.ufa345.com///" rel="nofollow">UFABET คาสิโนฟรีเครดิต</a>Pornhubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15787149435008093547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79995586921839267972016-12-16T09:30:24.663+00:002016-12-16T09:30:24.663+00:00@anon 2:06 I agree. She's a stupid c*nt totall...@anon 2:06 I agree. She's a stupid c*nt totally unfit for the position. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37559701710735552222016-12-16T05:00:47.781+00:002016-12-16T05:00:47.781+00:00China has dropped to #2 holder of UST behind Japan...China has dropped to #2 holder of UST behind Japan<br /><br />next are Ireland, Cayman islands, Brazil, Switzerland, Luxembourg, UK, Taiwan and HKNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91872032556962484672016-12-16T03:06:09.130+00:002016-12-16T03:06:09.130+00:00She is raising rates, because within the context o...She is raising rates, because within the context of her liberal and scholarly moral and intellectual compass it is finally the right thing to do. I used to admire Greenspan, until I read his book. Bernanke may have saved the global economy, but he just couldn't quit saving it. Yellen is no better, nor worse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39929308018211366882016-12-16T02:24:56.217+00:002016-12-16T02:24:56.217+00:00but something has changed over the last year, i...but something has changed over the last year, i've pointed at Libor many times for it was completely ignored<br /><br />Libor rates have spiked an alarming 600%, moving from 16 basis points all the way up to 92 basis points - a seven-year highNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45255301054452179862016-12-16T02:06:04.159+00:002016-12-16T02:06:04.159+00:00Does it seem more likely that the US macroeconomy ...Does it seem more likely that the US macroeconomy is running so much hotter than hot, as compared to earlier this year? Or that Yellen has a personal grudge against Trump for saying mean things and basically saying her job as chairman is over when her tenure is up.<br /><br />The simplest answer is more often correct than not. Nothing has changed, and she is raising rates and future rate expectations in the hope that she can crash the economy shortly after Trump inherits credit/responsibility for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68711987179275088622016-12-15T21:17:31.857+00:002016-12-15T21:17:31.857+00:00Since Sep 30, GS is up 50%, BAC also - 100bn mkt c...Since Sep 30, GS is up 50%, BAC also - 100bn mkt cap added there.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44715375465883066252016-12-15T21:14:03.157+00:002016-12-15T21:14:03.157+00:00johno
USDCAD last January is a good example to de...johno<br /><br />USDCAD last January is a good example to debrief, i didn't remember you were part of it too, i would have told you to stay put! I shorted 1.39, 1.40 and 1.41 and still did not look brilliant when it hit 1.46 and MM was calling further up. But it was a strong conviction on both a 'philosophical' take on Canada (the country, the security, the infrastructures, the investment possibilies etc) after a fairytale Christmas holiday there, and a very technical view on oversold oil complex that stretched to oversold currencies for oil producers. It worked.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58519494338357756992016-12-15T21:13:23.180+00:002016-12-15T21:13:23.180+00:00One question on trading strategy: IWM has outperfo...One question on trading strategy: IWM has outperform QQQ since the election. If I believe that it is going to reverse to historical norm and QQQ will outperform IWM for the next few weeks. What is the best trading strategy here? Call QQQ and put IWM at the same time? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4484872113340152192016-12-15T21:07:16.746+00:002016-12-15T21:07:16.746+00:00anon 8:38
put options? please. Read yesterday'...anon 8:38<br /><br />put options? please. Read yesterday's posts.<br /><br />i am not touching European banks, it was a formidable campaign on the short side, now the momentum is strongly on rebuilding valuations but im not comfortable picking up that kind of zombies especially knowing that Greece will be Greece forever. Last July Europe started to outperform the US (so your rv would work). Try to read July posts, i said there was no more point shorting EZ banks at EM compressed valuations. If you're trading EZ banks don't get greedy, next year will be more of the same, Europe crisis etc at least the FX people see that clearly, the EUR is toast.<br /><br />a better example for picking up jettisoned zombies would be miners last January. Miners do a tangible job with tangible assets, not the fantasy world with no accounting whatsoever and unlimited license to cheat and rely on political liaisons, that are banks worldwide.<br /><br /><br />johno<br /><br />if you miss the first leg down, it might be excrutiatingly uncomfortable to engage knowing the history of signature V shaped bounces on Spoos. So far if you miss the first leg, you have just missed it all! To elaborate further on last January, how exactly would you short AFTER the crack, after the first gap. The market trades down extremely fast, as you know.<br /><br />It is terribly tough to short against trend, before cracks. I am not suggesting this to anyone unless you are glued to a screen. You'd have to follow the Spoos almost around the clock for dips may happen overnight, this is not healthy living.<br /><br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28028831539791400682016-12-15T20:55:43.643+00:002016-12-15T20:55:43.643+00:00Interesting to hear your take on trading, Nico. It...Interesting to hear your take on trading, Nico. It works for you, perhaps because you have such conviction. I never have that conviction, so if I try betting on a reversal before it's begun, I get stopped. I try again, stopped. And again, stopped. By then, my stops have added up and I sideline myself (two days later, the Bank of Canada surprises hawkishly, oil bottoms and USDCAD nicely trends from 1.46 to 1.25 in 3 months and I miss it all, to give you one example this year of me making that mistake). My own answer is to wait for the market to crack first, and then press it. Accepting that I'll miss that first gap, but not letting that keep me from getting involved. For anyone who trades without Nico's conviction (which is me, at least), "building" a position against trend is psychologically deadly. All my biggest drawdowns trading macro are where I didn't wait wait for the catalyst/crack in the market, but fought the trend, thinking I could pick the spot where the market would reverse.<br />So, unless you can have Nico's conviction and his method to risk manage that conviction, be careful.johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60652227357540742052016-12-15T20:38:20.465+00:002016-12-15T20:38:20.465+00:00Nico, why are you befriending your positions? it&...Nico, why are you befriending your positions? it's about making money, profiting, not being a prophet.<br /><br />you'd have done far better with some puts, even if the vol was high, would have taken you out gently (just like how in macro hedge funds how drawdowns are supposed to be used ... tangent ... this makes the average macro/CTA category look like a long straddle position to allocators btw, ie long vol, and at a philosophical level, starts to explain some of the horrendous average macro hf performance in the qe era)<br /><br />humbly I think you could do trade construction much better, eg 95-90% of moneyness put spreads, puts on the low vol etfs, etc ... maybe your next posts can be more questions instead of thinly-veiled anxiety<br /><br />liquidity dynamics matter, but so does newsflow and the common knowledge game (ie read ben hunt at salient), positioning, seasonals, and long term valuation<br /><br />some of those things are improving for equities or still positive for equities, even if the second derivative has turned in others<br /><br />are you sure about european banks for instance? sx7e futures might be a nice (consensus -- maybe macro hf but not yet real-money consensus) long against the us if you are so pessimistic, rv often a bit more cleaner than punting<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83698506705168586752016-12-15T20:27:13.716+00:002016-12-15T20:27:13.716+00:00Anomymous at 3.07, just to be that guy: the only y...Anomymous at 3.07, just to be that guy: the only years in the past twenty (!) when JDSU have shown profit are 1996, 2011 and 2013. Otherwise I agree.Vasastannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47360239967153262642016-12-15T20:13:29.238+00:002016-12-15T20:13:29.238+00:00Abee
a bit of thoughs about markets and shorting...Abee <br /><br />a bit of thoughs about markets and shorting, sorry for the long post. Im already short here as you may know 2210/2225/2250 clips for 2228 average. To me the FOMC change to agressive regime was a no brainer and i wanted to be positioned before - even if expiry combined with Santa is the most supportive environment at work evert year against bears<br /><br />Last year i waited prudently that December pass and January gapped and traded hard down. I had no position and it was the most miserable time of my life. It might surprise you that one only suffers mentally if an identified trade setup has been missed because of hesitation in other words when one's caution keeps one from making money.<br /><br />I do not suffer mentally when i'm in a position and losing, because i follow a hard conviction. It has been repeatedly written here that you are either short too soon, or not short at all. This beast of a Spoo market is making sure of one thing: that the lift will go down empty, just like it did on last January 4th gap down. There is no way in hell one could comfortably 'short the hole' on January 4th, it looked like equity flows would fill that gap. We froze and waited for a higher entry and missed a formidable leg.<br /><br />You can be sure not many bears will be positioned this time again. Fed goes full hawk, you short and market stops you the next day? You might not try again, especially when the whole industry of leeches is celebrating printing DowJones 20000 Tshirts. I want to look back and say 'it was hard but i did the right thing'. To be short at a all time high, just when Fed confirms that it is agressively reversing the monetary policy that saved the equity markets and helped it more than triple in 7 years. Equities went up on POMO/QE only, this was the game. So what now? The Trump trade has become a cult, so powerful that followers think the Trump economy can overcome rising rates and a bond meltdown. <br /><br />1) It has been mentioned that rising rates nuke auto loans, then student loans, mortgages and more importantly, leveraged balance sheets. You need to remember US corporations have leveraged their balance sheets up to their eyeballs to keep up with earning growth expectation.<br /><br />2) the bond meltdown itself jeopardises financial stability, i've written at lengths that the bond market became a game for speculators who will stop sell on the way down. Their leverage is the same European banks had on Greek bonds, to the tune of x30. There are a lot of people incurring horrible losses as we speak and while bond holders wait until expiry, the speculators will be stopped out and exacerbate the bout.<br /><br />Do you know what is the most remarkable thing that was said yesterday? That Yellen would be forced to raise rates even higher if Trump insisted on fiscal stimulus. 'You move, I move". In one's reasonable mind, you would think that Yellen killed the Trump rally right there.<br /><br /><br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39641769072177014342016-12-15T20:13:16.080+00:002016-12-15T20:13:16.080+00:00Do you know what is the most remarkable thing that...Do you know what is the most remarkable thing that was said yesterday? That Yellen would be forced to raise rates even higher than announced if Trump insisted on fiscal stimulus. 'You move, I move". In one's reasonable mind, you would think that Yellen killed the Trump rally right there.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74331124542215873312016-12-15T18:35:04.210+00:002016-12-15T18:35:04.210+00:00Check out the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker to f...Check out the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker to find a sign of wage pressure. ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76652110312957689442016-12-15T16:42:18.962+00:002016-12-15T16:42:18.962+00:00stevie, is that you?stevie, is that you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66722225004250083982016-12-15T16:32:07.086+00:002016-12-15T16:32:07.086+00:00Funny how all the short-sellers who were crowing s...Funny how all the short-sellers who were crowing so loudly yesterday have now disappeared and gone quiet. Such is the world of retail trading, where 99% of guys like nico & pals blow their account.<br /><br />Much as I'd love to show you lads how it's done in the real world, my advice to the perma-bears is best summed up in the quote from Glengarry Glen Ross: "follow my advice and fire your fucking ass because a loser is a loser." <br /><br />Ciao.BuYsToCknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62446619874439629272016-12-15T16:11:15.347+00:002016-12-15T16:11:15.347+00:00Buy financials and sell STUD was the trade of the ...Buy financials and sell STUD was the trade of the year, but you needed some patience and balls to pull it off. Selling equities up here feels like same thing, you know it makes sense, but everyone is unsure of timing, and if you got into the trade too early, you get beaten up mentally by the grind offside. <br /><br />So how to trade it. Nico you love the short side, any thoughts?<br /><br />S&P high beta index is probably the one to watch. Look for a reversal signal, similar to what we got in Jan/Feb with the "Short Momentum" this year, IMO<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66559159666034025692016-12-15T16:07:04.072+00:002016-12-15T16:07:04.072+00:00Nico, Dow is up over 100pts since the open. Why no...Nico, Dow is up over 100pts since the open. Why not size sell it with ur friends? We could do with a nice short squeeze to smash up thru 20k ;)BuYsToCkSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17716334235345680042016-12-15T16:03:53.953+00:002016-12-15T16:03:53.953+00:00@abee was referring to the trend not the level - t...@abee was referring to the trend not the level - they've all flattened quite a bit last 6 weeks, and the move has accelerated somewhat last few days - 10/30 is in 27 bps (from 86 to 59) since 10/31 - given the 2 year is around 1.3, the market is pricing in around 3 hikes when the fed is promising 6 - there is no way that happens, but if the long end selloff keeps de-celarating and the front decides to price in a couple more hikes we will start cutting it close - frankly I think if it weren't for BoJ and ECB the yield curve would absolutely be inverted by now - of course one of those things I can say but can't prove.<br />Given that move in slope, its a little odd that financials are leading us - NIMs (as simplistic as that measure is) are coming in but buy banks because they've recaptured Washington DC? Hmmm… I must have missed the part where they'd ever gone away!<br />and @anon 3:07 - touche!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3056433872095894942016-12-15T15:48:48.200+00:002016-12-15T15:48:48.200+00:00Equities moving higher again today (just as we sai...Equities moving higher again today (just as we said yesterday), bit of a no-brainer really. Shame most of you missed it - you can bring a horse to water...<br /><br />Fully agree with the comments above about the Fed being a political animal (pro-democrat). Also agree with the bonds down, stocks up view. Saying that, if bonds do recover, stocks will go up anyway haha.<br />BuYsToCkSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17809807528438620172016-12-15T15:36:26.961+00:002016-12-15T15:36:26.961+00:00Two observations. Re the dots, I concluded some ti...Two observations. Re the dots, I concluded some time ago that Yellen is about the 5th lowest dot. So she hasn't moved and she's still expecting only two hikes next year. Perhaps explains her dismissive comments about the movement in the dots yesterday.<br /><br />Second observation regards xccy basis in JPY which washed mentioned. Funny thing is the basis is tightening in the short end and widening in the 5y and longer end. Anyone who can shed light on that?<br /><br />My remarks the other day about there being no "levels" notwithstanding, EURUSD just broke the low of its range ...<br /><br />People see DB arguing that higher rates will be good as people don't have to save as hard? Unorthodox position .. maybe makes more sense in a country where people save in the first place, like Japan. Views on that?<br /><br />If Trump wants to get re-elected, he should regulate tech, starting with driverless cars. Think of all the employment in driving cars/trucks, not to mention middle class American manhood's deep affinity for driving. Some kids in California want to tell Joe average that computers can driver better than him, and that he should get off the road for everyone's sake (while making billions off this)? And bye-bye all those high-paying truck driver jobs? Forget it. Trump should iron fist this, very publicly. "Too much change too fast." The middle class would love it. They'd go bananas for it. Boost their male egos and boost their sense of economic security. And higher interest rates would make retirement seemingly viable again for people outside of the public sector. Again, plays to economic security, which is the issue on which the Democrats really lost (though they're too close-minded to see it, still looking for Russian hacking explanations, blaming Comey, blaming fake news, etc.).<br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47442750556444190522016-12-15T15:35:43.392+00:002016-12-15T15:35:43.392+00:00I agree with Nico and that the yield climb should ...I agree with Nico and that the yield climb should continue well into the Q2 next year. Those who think that the economy cannot handle a 4.00% 10yr are probably the same who are buying equities where Shiller's p/e CAPE ratio is at a euphoric 28.<br /><br />Imho, the risk to the bond bear trade is a stock market correction not the economy slowing down. Wouldn't be surprised if stocks roll over come Jan 20th! ('TINA' is not interminable.)JMTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91802415584697295442016-12-15T15:25:28.441+00:002016-12-15T15:25:28.441+00:00Hmm can look at it in forward space for seeing how...Hmm can look at it in forward space for seeing how close to inversion, eg 3y fwd 2y vs 3y10y<br /><br />Does this mean that the neo-Fisherites were right?? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com