tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post544875519791286023..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Non-Predictions 2012 - CommoditiesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89326326272799432752012-01-23T15:09:41.926+00:002012-01-23T15:09:41.926+00:00Claus, that particular knife has emasculated a num...Claus, that particular knife has emasculated a number of BSD. Interesting though as it looks like a squeeze, and does indicate that there may be a lot of active shorts in NG rather than total disinterest.<br /><br />Something on Spain:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/3688910/01/12/Hay-27000millones-de-deuda-oculta-en-los-entes-publicos.html" rel="nofollow"> Spain's Regions and Their Debt </a><br /><br />My Spanish isn't fantastico, but I did understand "Un modelo insostenible". The implication of a lot of what we have read on the topic is that Spain is now playing the game of "pass the parcel" between the regions and the central government, only when you unwrap the last layer there isn't actually any cash inside. Real debt levels may turn out to be "muy grande", but "que sera, sera".Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37981885816634195152012-01-23T14:53:23.294+00:002012-01-23T14:53:23.294+00:00CHK announcement causing a bit of a bounce. I thin...CHK announcement causing a bit of a bounce. I think more talk than substance personally. At least for the moment.Patrikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15584778738602345809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68503165011175562182012-01-23T14:09:25.828+00:002012-01-23T14:09:25.828+00:00I am wondering on the catalyst here ... just a dec...I am wondering on the catalyst here ... just a decent short squeeze or is the announcement by CHK to reduce production a sign of things to come for the major producers. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7201569725988641332012-01-23T13:20:26.909+00:002012-01-23T13:20:26.909+00:00So, how many of you BSD caught that NG1 knife ... ...So, how many of you BSD caught that NG1 knife ... ? <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51590166538541986132012-01-22T23:01:31.791+00:002012-01-22T23:01:31.791+00:00Oil price movements - I would go for your third pr...Oil price movements - I would go for your third prediction: ECB-driven deflation, double dip, $90 oil - maybe also due to easing of oil supply; Libya opening up the tap...eveningstarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21165540032881633192012-01-21T19:32:28.496+00:002012-01-21T19:32:28.496+00:00Something off the top, sir? Or just short back and...Something off the top, sir? Or just short back and sides?<br /><br /><a href="http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/12/01/BV_GRBZZCT0112_VF.html" rel="nofollow"> Haircut Calculator </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89095957502138213912012-01-21T16:43:00.919+00:002012-01-21T16:43:00.919+00:00Sell 5yr USD/JPY vol, put it in a box and don'...Sell 5yr USD/JPY vol, put it in a box and don't look again for 4years and 364 days. This has to be the answer.Kerpalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16412710436874270595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58937358923561391862012-01-20T21:22:12.216+00:002012-01-20T21:22:12.216+00:00Sitting here does spoos collapse
watching bonds wi...Sitting here does spoos collapse<br />watching bonds wither away<br />pulling my hair as time lapse<br />the west coast may find a way<br />the markets samsara never stops<br />overcrowded the herd may flop<br />oh no spoos at the close pop<br />sit here watch ever realms mop.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69464296959788158592012-01-20T21:19:17.437+00:002012-01-20T21:19:17.437+00:00Great explanation but there's always a way to ...Great explanation but there's always a way to go with copper. Platinum will always be there just like gold and silver and it will definitely go up.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.cashforgoldleprechaun.com" rel="nofollow">cash for platinum</a>ahnnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04734082191753937494noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30413721379953836512012-01-20T18:34:58.505+00:002012-01-20T18:34:58.505+00:00See the silly rally continue.
Don't short it.
...See the silly rally continue.<br />Don't short it.<br />Enjoy watching your longs appreciate.<br />Sell some junk you wanted to unload.<br />Watch for sectors of weakness.<br />Try out a few small hedges, if you must.<br />Ignore the media.<br />Smile, you are making money.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11870463422621708332012-01-20T17:50:13.066+00:002012-01-20T17:50:13.066+00:00trend followers unite..equites cant even pull back...trend followers unite..equites cant even pull back from this 2 week run, wow! either this is a vicious head fake or this year we are going to up 20% in SPX<br /><br />wheres 'c to argue with meabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54499769984619067382012-01-20T15:16:32.869+00:002012-01-20T15:16:32.869+00:00FTSE, CAC, DAX all flat as a pancake. This is the ...FTSE, CAC, DAX all flat as a pancake. This is the hardest part...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg" rel="nofollow"> The Waiting </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85372869770968190162012-01-20T12:42:23.022+00:002012-01-20T12:42:23.022+00:00The trendfollowers in yet?..The trendfollowers in yet?..Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75202413707779594222012-01-20T03:42:12.908+00:002012-01-20T03:42:12.908+00:00A few notes on Greece and Portugal that confirms w...A few notes on Greece and Portugal that confirms what TMM suspected about the declining market for sovereign CDS as the end game approaches.<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/19/840851/greek-lessons-for-portugal/" rel="nofollow"> Greece, Portugal and CDS </a><br /><br />Take your profits and move on to the next PIIG in line seems to be the modus operandi....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84724986973895087732012-01-19T19:10:58.672+00:002012-01-19T19:10:58.672+00:00I am not convinced copper is going nowhere. Chine...I am not convinced copper is going nowhere. Chinese inventories are rising, property prices are falling, and Australian employment is falling. European QE will probably help for a while but I'm looking to sell higher levels.SJMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15536893532840370319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5194879538542433732012-01-19T18:57:19.101+00:002012-01-19T18:57:19.101+00:00Patrik, great notes on the intricacies of the vol ...Patrik, great notes on the intricacies of the vol argument. I agree w this sentiment for the most part, while higher realized vol is likely I'm not sure there is enough 'value' sitting around.willemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53619093835084204892012-01-19T17:51:45.182+00:002012-01-19T17:51:45.182+00:00Technicals department has noted:
DAX closed at 3 ...Technicals department has noted:<br /><br />DAX closed at 3 month high, at late October levels. Resistance overhead:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DAX?countrycode=DX" rel="nofollow"> DAX 3-month chart </a><br /><br />This is perhaps THE chart to watch.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38784984999091085452012-01-19T16:36:16.419+00:002012-01-19T16:36:16.419+00:00Off-topic.
Ambrose has noticed another falling k...Off-topic. <br /><br />Ambrose has noticed another falling knife, Italian M3, is descending even more rapidly than Berlusconi's trousers at a Bunga Bunga party: <br /><br /><a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014296/the-euro-is-pushing-italy-into-depression/" rel="nofollow"> Italian M3 Cliff Diving </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32972140539326316812012-01-19T16:28:22.884+00:002012-01-19T16:28:22.884+00:00Natty gas defies rational analysis, but not gravit...Natty gas defies rational analysis, but not gravity. Take a look at the 5y chart. Now as Crocodile Dundee said:<br /><br />"THAT'S A KNIFE"<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/UNG/charts?countryCode=US&submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=12&freq=1&comp=Enter%20Symbol(s)%3A&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=aaaaa~0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013" rel="nofollow"> UNG: The Ultimate Falling Knife </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67757725008525720982012-01-19T15:05:54.271+00:002012-01-19T15:05:54.271+00:00Out of curiosity,how about NG? It's (US contra...Out of curiosity,how about NG? It's (US contract) down 33% from a month ago, at about decade low. I'd have thought that at this price it should be pretty economic to LNG to Europe from the US - possibly better economics and definitely much better politics than building a pipeline from Russia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68239666153110263812012-01-19T11:44:20.226+00:002012-01-19T11:44:20.226+00:00Reposting my comment lost at the end of the race a...Reposting my comment lost at the end of the race against the machine...<br /><br />With your non prediction on UK10s, upside risk in energy, and Merve likely to be the most proactive of the big 4, isnt owning the UK breakevens a cleaner play than shorting the nominals?Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41447557241821124562012-01-19T11:21:53.793+00:002012-01-19T11:21:53.793+00:00I like platinum. It is as close to win-win in comm...I like platinum. It is as close to win-win in commodities space, as in the bear case of deflationary recession centre banks will just QE to ad infinitum. Bull case is self explanationary.<br /><br />Add HUGE political risk residing in South Africa and the upside could see XPT @ $2000 easily.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55563442206995327412012-01-19T10:54:38.068+00:002012-01-19T10:54:38.068+00:00WTI vols at 23%? yes, I'd buy that, but the im...WTI vols at 23%? yes, I'd buy that, but the implieds you'd look at with front ATM vols around 29% and a contango making it 33% in june and decent smile on top of that you're looking at more like 36% for 10-15d straddles. That's a lot less obvious when fixed contract (not 1st nearby) average realized vols over a 6 month period for the dec11 contract came in around 35-36% (covering the US downgrade period and strong comeback). Not obvious either way to me at the moment.Patrikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15584778738602345809noreply@blogger.com