tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post542875323134301304..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Hunting flamingos...and turkeys.Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81429379034601112552015-12-11T12:56:11.580+00:002015-12-11T12:56:11.580+00:00"I think US taxpayers are about to become pro..."I think US taxpayers are about to become proud owners of junk bonds whether they like it or not!"<br /><br />Amen ... QE4 has corporate bonds written all over it. :)<br />CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7150957402130853432015-12-11T12:53:04.874+00:002015-12-11T12:53:04.874+00:00CV - yes indeed the dominoes seem to be lining up ...CV - yes indeed the dominoes seem to be lining up - as usual equities will be the last ones to get the memo, with yellen a close second. That said, probably a good time to remind oneself of the rhymes, not repeats, wisdom. I'm not sure the contagion this time carries the quality described by Jules in Pulp Fiction as 'super fried TNT' - for one, no one is actively short that stuff, so its primarily a liquidation event with carryover effects into ending the M&A and buyback game.<br />Endgame? I think US taxpayers are about to become proud owners of junk bonds whether they like it or not!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83993512898942900922015-12-11T06:56:04.926+00:002015-12-11T06:56:04.926+00:00Wow @ that Acrossthecurve piece on Third Avenue .....Wow @ that Acrossthecurve piece on Third Avenue ... this is exactly how I imagined it would go from bad to worse! Hmm ... BNP 2007 moment indeed, or what? CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12692674195104840152015-12-11T05:54:48.302+00:002015-12-11T05:54:48.302+00:00MM, can you do a post on the actual mechanics of t...MM, can you do a post on the actual mechanics of the Fed hiking and what the hell is actually going to happen? It seems like the assumption that is all going to go smoothly is the biggest flamingo of allsharpe_mindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04938383068642163217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39484366223970281302015-12-11T05:30:46.346+00:002015-12-11T05:30:46.346+00:00a few thoughts on my fav topic copied from interne...a few thoughts on my fav topic copied from internet<br /><br />Share buybacks by U.S. non-financial companies reached a record $520 billion in the most recent reporting year. A Reuters analysis of 3,300 non-financial companies found that together, buybacks and dividends have surpassed total capital expenditures and are more than double research and development spending.<br /><br />There’s been an over-focus on buybacks and raising EPS to hit share option targets, and we know that those are concentrated in the hands of the few, and that the few is in the top 1 percent,” said James Montier, a member of the asset allocation team at global investment firm GMO in London, which manages more than $100 billion in assets.<br /><br />The introduction of performance targets has been a driver of surging executive pay, helping to widen the gap between the richest in America and the rest of the country. Median CEO pay among companies in the S&P 500 increased to a record $10.3 million last year, up from $8.6 million in 2010, according to data firm Equilar.<br /><br />At those levels, CEOs last year were paid 303 times what workers in their industries earned, compared with a ratio of 59 times in 1989, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based nonprofit.<br /><br />WEALTH EXTRACTION by a happy few - is all that American society has to offer today. The rest can smoke their legalized doobie for ignorance is blissNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27328830844483356732015-12-11T01:24:20.509+00:002015-12-11T01:24:20.509+00:00LB: How can tax loss selling and liquidation in t...LB: How can tax loss selling and liquidation in the next three weeks give us our Santa rally? Or will it be referred to as the Yellen rally this year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32334731316962191422015-12-10T23:13:13.335+00:002015-12-10T23:13:13.335+00:00Acrossthecurve is a classic of simple blogging. Sh...Acrossthecurve is a classic of simple blogging. Short and to the point. No frills. Little verbal flatulence. Lots of insight. <br />John Jansen is a Prince among bloggers, like our own MM. LB has learned a lot from that blog over the years.<br /><br />Tax loss selling and liquidation are going to be important themes in the next three weeks. All the most hated stuff of 2015 is about to become even less popular as the portfolio purges begin. Of course, one man's trash is another man's treasure.<br /><br />Dumpster divers, bargain shoppers and Knife Catchers, start your engines and prepare to don The Kevlar....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6631575886063813392015-12-10T22:31:37.462+00:002015-12-10T22:31:37.462+00:00Smash the rallies, sell the closes.
Acrossthecurv...Smash the rallies, sell the closes.<br /><br />Acrossthecurve, on of my other fave blogs from 2008:<br /><br />http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=24157<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78079036233010081432015-12-10T20:42:38.638+00:002015-12-10T20:42:38.638+00:00MM that has to be one of my favourite ever posts o...MM that has to be one of my favourite ever posts of yours<br />Flamingo hunters laugh in the face of fundamentals - too trueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7131475884679656872015-12-10T20:27:54.357+00:002015-12-10T20:27:54.357+00:00MM, I stand corrected ! Yes, puzzling the ozzie em...MM, I stand corrected ! Yes, puzzling the ozzie employment strength. Still I think the risk:reward for short aud:cad is good here, it could go to 1.02 at a maximum by my estimation (although I could prove to be wrong) and the profit target is to 0.8 in the next 18 months. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36027755765389547572015-12-10T17:04:49.764+00:002015-12-10T17:04:49.764+00:00@Booger,
Be careful of CAD here, if it goes like ...@Booger,<br /><br />Be careful of CAD here, if it goes like the past 3 years, you are in major trouble.<br /><br />Regarding FANG, I am not comfortable shorting these high-flyers, too much risk and there could be some shocking positive news to screw the shorts. I only heard some rumors so I am not going to repeat here because it is not credible. <br /><br />However, I like the idea of long oil and GDX. Also, I wonder if somenone knew how to predict or monitor CHK's bankrupcy risk. I believe that it could cause some major risk events in the market.<br /><br />Nice post MM and very nice comments, as usual.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77957868112359628592015-12-10T15:29:46.492+00:002015-12-10T15:29:46.492+00:00Is a US yield curve flattener a Flamingo?Is a US yield curve flattener a Flamingo?DownWithTheBeanCountersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42854350451579259102015-12-10T15:17:16.535+00:002015-12-10T15:17:16.535+00:00Short FANG!? Brave lot the MM commentariat! I have...Short FANG!? Brave lot the MM commentariat! I have no skin in this game, but I hope you nail it to be honest! <br /><br />Gold is interesting because it is just about the only uncorrelated asset in a world where CBs have pushed up stocks and bonds in unison. If we get another a Taper Tantrum redux (yields up, stocks down), I expect gold to do quite well. Other than that ... success can also be determined what you do NOT own. <br /><br />1) No FANGs, biotech and healthcare ... check. <br />2) No corporate debt, all stock holdings 0% debt to equity (almost!) ... check<br />3) No energy exposure ... check <br /><br />Now, I will of course admit a little bit of EM exposure which kind means 2) and 3) are wrong, but it is all very minor. <br /><br />I generally sympathise a little bit more with the shorts here ... not sure, it will work in Q1 though. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53007706764896315262015-12-10T13:25:29.908+00:002015-12-10T13:25:29.908+00:00nice call on XLY Anon 1:00pm. I think the move in ...nice call on XLY Anon 1:00pm. I think the move in AMZN can easily give back some, only up 140% YTD while the rest of retail is getting sloshed. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88084041569454455292015-12-10T13:11:04.384+00:002015-12-10T13:11:04.384+00:00In regards to Mr. Gave's article the quote sho...In regards to Mr. Gave's article the quote should be,"We make money the old-fashioned way...We earn it" Old-fashioned does have a bit more cachet, doesn't it?<br /><br />In regards to the stupidity or not of today's market, there is now just a bit too much highfallutin' looking down of one's superior investing nose at the now suddenly unwashed mass of less brainy investors who are now exhibiting lemming behaviour. Oh, really? There weren't lemmings in the ZIRP-era?<br /><br />It is much more simple than that...peeps rightly recongized that ZIRP would push money out of traditional sites and relatively more into equities. It is perfectly rational behavior to take some risk off the table now. Why are you an oaf if you do?<br /><br />As I understand it markets used to be forward looking...and that didn't mean looking for the next day's CNBC headlines.Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10047144796008659292015-12-10T13:04:16.105+00:002015-12-10T13:04:16.105+00:00Wow Anon, I agree with just about all of that. Lo...Wow Anon, I agree with just about all of that. Love the GDX chart btwMacro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90344493224019306222015-12-10T13:00:29.659+00:002015-12-10T13:00:29.659+00:00MM- in terms of flamingo hunting these are what i ...MM- in terms of flamingo hunting these are what i have put on over the past few days:<br /><br />1. Short NDX- puts spreads<br />2. Short FANG- mainly buying mar 20d puts on FB AMZN and nflx( this has had incredible momemtum but if it turns will go a long way) not NFlX failed breakout this week<br /><br />3. short xly(10% weight in amzn) but vol and skew looking incredibly cheap<br />4.spx short call spreads long puts ...<br />5. I am back in the long estx short spy camp post draghi flush...not sure going to work straight away but has come off a good way and yes ecb disappointed but is still in very easy mode( so yes implicitly short euro i guess which is counter to your hunt for stops)<br /><br />6.long some gdx which looks like bottoming - will add on break higher. <br />7. long small crude<br /> book is long weekly upside spy calls as stops<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69753019898376123032015-12-10T12:46:52.147+00:002015-12-10T12:46:52.147+00:00Biotech looks broken, as the health care sector in...Biotech looks broken, as the health care sector in general seems to have rolled over with the anniversary of Obamacare pressuring the insurers and hospitals, and a rotation out of defensive growth HealthCare sector. I like it longer term, but when the trend is down, watch out<br /><br />Also maybe not immediately but my pehaps sometime in 2016 US 5 year breaks above 1.8%, (a great range trading level, look at the chart) and if its accompanied by wage pressure, that will hurt IG the mostabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59948955441973174062015-12-10T12:28:09.529+00:002015-12-10T12:28:09.529+00:00@ Anon 12.13 IN times of turmoil, I always love h...@ Anon 12.13 IN times of turmoil, I always love having low delta USD/JPY puts in the book just in case, particularly when USD/JPY is near its highs. This week's meltdown was pretty unsurprising, and the break of the 50 + 200 days would argue a retest of the old range. Not as flamingo-y as euro IMO, put still ripe for the hunt. Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8306054905016876882015-12-10T12:25:31.233+00:002015-12-10T12:25:31.233+00:00@ Booger, the NZD move had zero to do with Aussie ...@ Booger, the NZD move had zero to do with Aussie employment, as it was several hours before the AUD number. Speaking of which, while the monthly print may not be believable when taken at face value, they dynamic has clearly changed, as the more or less straight up "price action" in unemployment has been replaced by rounded top + reversal.<br /><br />Easy policy kicking in? Probably. A more credible government improving sentiment? Possibly. A switch from mining to services? Evidently. Either way, this is not your very-slightly-older-brother's labour market. Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44654652376406368042015-12-10T12:24:50.840+00:002015-12-10T12:24:50.840+00:00The old flamingo trade. Fundamentals and valuation...The old flamingo trade. Fundamentals and valuation will ultimately drive stock returns in the long-run, but heading into 2016, it’s crucial to acknowledge the likelihood for severe moves based on:<br /><br />policy, <br />policy expectations, <br />sentiment,<br />positioning<br /><br /><a href="http://crackerjackfinance.com/2015/12/policy-driven-markets-are-treacherous/" rel="nofollow">Policy Driven Markets are Treacherous</a>Crackerjack Financehttp://www.crackerjackfinance.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5144967668824945762015-12-10T12:13:27.549+00:002015-12-10T12:13:27.549+00:00Hi MMCom(munity)
Can we talk about the Yen? Lots ...Hi MMCom(munity)<br /><br />Can we talk about the Yen? Lots of headlines about oil but Yen strength is something tooAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9370833638727296182015-12-10T11:55:46.493+00:002015-12-10T11:55:46.493+00:00MM nice post - would much appreciate it if you pos...MM nice post - would much appreciate it if you post a link to the year end trade survey you had conducted earlier at your convenience - I tried searching the brute force way but clearly don't have the right keywords.<br />I agree on the NDX being an interesting one into year end, in that banks have peddled it coke-like to momo chasing clients for the last two months. An out of the blue 2 std deviation selloff in apple, google, and Facebook would create quite the bee-swarm one suspects.<br />Nico thanks for sharing that article - re-inforces my belief that if/when algos stop acting bullishly and go the other way they will basically be outright banned - people who think technology only marches forward clearly never read history.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77662892992820692642015-12-10T11:53:25.049+00:002015-12-10T11:53:25.049+00:00Great post, Nico, I would mostly agree but not wit...Great post, Nico, I would mostly agree but not with the conclusion: "As a result, I cannot remember a time when less thinking has ever been done in the financial markets, which is why I find today’s financial markets infinitely boring."<br /><br />All these non-thinking trend followers, indexers and Fed second-guessers make a great market for value-style fundamental stock picking - over the long term, which hardly anyone is still able to bear.Gnome of Zurichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63948091337605180982015-12-10T11:31:24.488+00:002015-12-10T11:31:24.488+00:00MM, the nzd was a blowback from blowout aud employ...MM, the nzd was a blowback from blowout aud employment data. Either the Australian economy is smoking and ready for a rate rise (hard to believe) or it is just a freaky but temporary period of strong employment growth. Also a bit of sell the news after the recent ECB experience I suspect. <br /><br />Something I watch, aud.cad is reaching excellent levels to sell, 0.99 today. Either the Australian economy is decoupling from resources or this is a temporary aberration. In the next 2 years the outlook for oil is probably a lot better than iron ore in terms of relative pricing. The oils are taking it in the guts now but I suspect it will bounce sooner than ore, where the supply issues are arguably worse. Boogernoreply@blogger.com