tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5180326455807840261..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Was that a sign of life? Or just a death twitch...?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6630624828624518542010-07-15T12:10:50.769+01:002010-07-15T12:10:50.769+01:00FX: thanks for the report link! It needs a small m...FX: thanks for the report link! It needs a small modification - ".pdf" must be added to the end, like so: ...July2010.pdf<br /><br />Thanks also to cpmppi and others for keeping this blog up - it is definitely one of the best and most informative blogs around today.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14660450545990726984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78785331089589618152010-07-15T03:44:08.789+01:002010-07-15T03:44:08.789+01:00Not sure the first one printed, so I broke it up.
...Not sure the first one printed, so I broke it up.<br /><br />https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads/pdf/com/<br /><br />research/special_reports/<br /><br />WhatReallyDrivesGrowthintheIndustrialSector_July2010.pdfUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65227178384772996692010-07-15T03:42:11.575+01:002010-07-15T03:42:11.575+01:00TMM,
Well, I found this interesting.
https://www...TMM,<br /><br />Well, I found this interesting.<br /><br />https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads/pdf/com/research/special_reports/WhatReallyDrivesGrowthintheIndustrialSector_July2010.pdf<br /><br />Not an expert in this angle of analysis but,If I had the resources I'd overlay Japan - USA interest rates over this period.<br /><br />Lets face it , everyone loves to chase yield,in one form or another.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3873460317780992322010-07-14T21:07:05.414+01:002010-07-14T21:07:05.414+01:00i guess a complimentary way to think about is shor...i guess a complimentary way to think about is short-life capex vs long-life capex .. with no final demand in sight firms do not invest in things with long shelf life .. but only in short-life things like software etc which does not create too much employment .. <br /><br />the mere fact that corporates are cash rich is very deflationary indeed ..Denizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05596239346331323448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70941906143964688802010-07-14T19:02:00.588+01:002010-07-14T19:02:00.588+01:00k1: There are any number of flamingoes out there r...k1: There are any number of flamingoes out there right now, but the GOLDEN FLAMINGO seems to stand out from the flock at the moment. Unless Bernanke announces that dollar bills are now flowing out of his arse it's hard to see what could possibly drive that market higher. The Euro hedging seems to have abated, for one thing.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55733057351175401252010-07-14T17:38:47.610+01:002010-07-14T17:38:47.610+01:00LB- it would appear that high yield bonds are appr...LB- it would appear that high yield bonds are approaching the levels of our last discussion. Might it be time to load up the flamingo gun again?k1https://www.blogger.com/profile/09225280954749523413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77465820994738727502010-07-14T15:58:55.182+01:002010-07-14T15:58:55.182+01:00Bob,
Normally that would be the case, but this is...Bob,<br /><br />Normally that would be the case, but this is a case of corporates updating their own (out of date) infrastructure - one group of corporates creating demand for the goods of another group of corporates. No need for final demand there, though I accept that there is only so much updating that you can do without customers stepping up and buying.<br /><br />I am definitely skeptical of the idea that China et al can fill the void or decouple, though their FAI numbers have clearly roofed it over the past few years (and especially last year).<br /><br />Cheers,<br />cpmppicpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75555452453901082672010-07-14T14:53:04.725+01:002010-07-14T14:53:04.725+01:00A squall in the China sea will sink all boats.... ...A squall in the China sea will sink all boats.... or at least cause more than a few of the leaky ones to take on water. Then again, the Baltic Dry suggests that most of the ships are in port.<br /><br />US corporate cash levels are indeed high, which is a plus for US corporate bonds in what is likely to be a slow growth environment. We are now getting to the flat part of what Soros described as the inverted square root sign recovery, after the inventory rebuild. So it's likely that they will simply hold the cash for later M&A activity, no?Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57155878435573518402010-07-14T14:25:07.006+01:002010-07-14T14:25:07.006+01:00It isn't clear to me how there can be strong c...It isn't clear to me how there can be strong capex growth without strong final demand growth. And final demand growth in the West will be anemic at best. <br /><br />One explanation is that China, the rest of Asia and the commodity producers decouple (personally, I don't believe it.) But if that happens, isn't it likely most of the capex occurs in China and the rest of Asia?Bob Stewarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14820206605014400382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32656089970910330502010-07-14T13:41:42.707+01:002010-07-14T13:41:42.707+01:00Игры рынка,
Yes, I think that is a good point, an...Игры рынка,<br /><br />Yes, I think that is a good point, and that recycling has largely financed fiscal deficits. As far as markets decoupling from macro, I am not smart enough to have an opinion. Perhaps there is some other factor at play...<br /><br />Cheers,<br />cpmppicpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49759015374417417812010-07-14T13:19:57.885+01:002010-07-14T13:19:57.885+01:00btw, low capital formation is the result of outsou...btw, low capital formation is the result of outsourcing. Another by-product of outsourcing is the so popular these days theme of corporate cash balances. Well, the bottom line is that this cash has been financialized and recycled into the "capital" markets. And these markets are now decoupled from broad macro.<br /><br />Just a thought which is teasing meИгры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66003712627080388082010-07-14T13:06:09.655+01:002010-07-14T13:06:09.655+01:00Hi Игры рынка,
Yes, sorry, I was using the expres...Hi Игры рынка,<br /><br />Yes, sorry, I was using the expression as a generic example of having to understand both sides rather than anything Yen-specific.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />cpmppicpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23297705447918876492010-07-14T12:50:01.423+01:002010-07-14T12:50:01.423+01:00Yen has been strong because it has been deflating ...Yen has been strong because it has been deflating vs USD for several decades now. We live in fiat world and the question is who is more fiat relative to each other.Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.com