tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post50685258702229634..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Mr T: I Predict PainMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13221271605543555292011-03-04T22:44:03.983+00:002011-03-04T22:44:03.983+00:00Martinghoul - thanks I'll take a look.
cpmpp...Martinghoul - thanks I'll take a look.<br /><br />cpmppi - thanks also, I've emailed you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10638913851439752282011-03-04T13:09:04.233+00:002011-03-04T13:09:04.233+00:00Anon
In addition to the literature, you might wan...Anon<br /><br />In addition to the literature, you might wanna look at this here site:<br />http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/fedfunds/index.cfmMartinghoulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11108374660189830062011-03-04T12:14:35.378+00:002011-03-04T12:14:35.378+00:00Anon @ 11:56am,
There are several technical issue...Anon @ 11:56am,<br /><br />There are several technical issues around this that are far beyond the scope of a comment here. Suffice to say, the Fed Funds futures are easier to get rate expectations from. If you are particularly interested in this, send my an email at cpmppi at gmail dot com and I will send u some literature.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />cpmppicpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31519333225897970542011-03-04T11:56:58.461+00:002011-03-04T11:56:58.461+00:00Great blog. Have a question on rate hike expectati...Great blog. Have a question on rate hike expectations if anyone can help, from an interested amateur perspective trying to understand/learn a bit more. <br /><br />The US 3 month futures seem to imply a hike in November this year (just using simple interpolation of [100-price-libor] as I guess that's where they have to converge), but the US 1 month fed fund futures seem to imply a hike in feb/march 2012 (again a simple interpolation, but depending which month used and subject to exact date of the announcement).<br /><br />So am I missing something obvious, like variations in the difference between libor and the fed funds rate, or other market technicalities, or just far more complicated to work out even a rough estimate than that – i.e. without getting into option probabilities (which was the only thing I could find on the topic when googling? Thanks for any input.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37156920101352844282011-03-04T00:16:02.786+00:002011-03-04T00:16:02.786+00:00The Irish new govt has alot to do with this "...The Irish new govt has alot to do with this "quantum jump" - it's the german sado-maso way of saying: "zee, Mr kenny, 5.9% iz ok, cherman 10yr will soon be yielding 4%, we zuvver zoogether". but its too soon to short the idiots of 2008, there are too many hft algos in the forex market and now, its risk-on time becoz "Trichet" and "Vigilance" has been detected by the artificial intelligence algos in numerous press releases from reuters.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14981357414735620122011-03-03T23:51:03.879+00:002011-03-03T23:51:03.879+00:00ECB's assumption that the Euro capital markets...ECB's assumption that the Euro capital markets exculding the PIGS are performing well, is like looking at inflation numbers excluding those that has gone up more than others.Carry Traderhttp://theintrinsicvalue.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47386017690719389112011-03-03T23:29:22.432+00:002011-03-03T23:29:22.432+00:00Thanks Nemo, I don't often get micro but nothi...Thanks Nemo, I don't often get micro but nothing would surprise me. I did hear about a UK domiciled company on the verge of bankruptcy recently who changed their name to include "rare earths something or other" in the title and the stock price immediately rallied 200% (can't recall the company). <br /><br />At anon 4.27pm. Yes I have trouble sleeping sometimes, but I am based in a small city state just south of Malaysia so it was midnight not 3am ;)Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42579819460962853702011-03-03T19:24:39.200+00:002011-03-03T19:24:39.200+00:00Is anybody but fx traders seriously buying Trichet...Is anybody but fx traders seriously buying Trichet's nonsense? Looks like the big losers from rising rates tightened against the bund today.<br /><br />On a related knife-catching front, a little calculation I make that I pretend tells me how married investors are to their positions recently hit an all time low for the bund future (among others of the ilk). Typically a few weeks of lag.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74935598659951956272011-03-03T18:59:10.645+00:002011-03-03T18:59:10.645+00:00Skippy, we have just realized that Canada's #3...Skippy, we have just realized that Canada's #3 batsman Zubin Surkari (fine player, btw) is the young man once given out "timed out" when playing a 20/20 against us for Toronto CC b/c he was on the khazi and wasn't able to get his pads on in time after we took a couple of quick wickets..... there were some expletives.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72105857931773625502011-03-03T17:57:01.560+00:002011-03-03T17:57:01.560+00:00TMM: As regards policy rules, have a look at EONIA...TMM: As regards policy rules, have a look at EONIA or the min. bid rate vs the unemployment gap using OECD's NAIRU. Cheers and thanks for a super blog. /oCockadoodledoohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08658921138352027771noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72676555632062577022011-03-03T16:49:23.682+00:002011-03-03T16:49:23.682+00:00And I'm joining cpmppi down the pub for a thur...And I'm joining cpmppi down the pub for a thursday special consolation bevvy. TMM will have sore heads tomorrow.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21355436333409525362011-03-03T16:29:33.416+00:002011-03-03T16:29:33.416+00:00Skippy, Blimey, they get up early in Australia don...Skippy, Blimey, they get up early in Australia don't they - it's only 3am out there, isn't it? Come to think of it, that goes for all the other Asian commenters - what are you guys doing up so late?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51700076772322975512011-03-03T16:19:20.494+00:002011-03-03T16:19:20.494+00:00Yeah,
I'm starting to wonder whether this is s...Yeah,<br />I'm starting to wonder whether this is starting to look a bit like Feb 1994 given the surprise, with rate hike fears leading to a risk aversion event. Of course, to look at Spooz you wouldn't think that...<br /><br />Right, after today's drubbing I'm off to the pub.<br /><br />cpmppicpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89570126400624194792011-03-03T16:07:03.224+00:002011-03-03T16:07:03.224+00:00Show me a hole in the ground and I'll show you...Show me a hole in the ground and I'll show you an Excellent Adventure in Rare Earth Mining. Presence of spivs always an indicator of incipient toppiness. <br /><br />Hope Asian sentiment keeps re-pumping FXI and EEM, Skippy, so that I can serially short them over and over, it's delivered big twice already! Saffers looking good in the WC, Skippy. ABDV is in ominous form.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54929978722137404842011-03-03T15:58:27.965+00:002011-03-03T15:58:27.965+00:00Skippy viz commods out here - mate, I have some st...Skippy viz commods out here - mate, I have some stories.If you think public markets are nuts you have no idea what supposedly big and smart funds are doing viz a viz paying up for el crappo rare earth deposits with spivvy promoters.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52217971660714224562011-03-03T15:54:34.974+00:002011-03-03T15:54:34.974+00:00This is just unbelievably stupid.... I don't e...This is just unbelievably stupid.... I don't even trade Euribors for a living but this makes me think that we are in for a policy error (tightening) followed by a sovereign crisis (covered many, many times on this blog) followed by god knows what (sovereign default shitshow followed by run on European banking system?). I would love the Ber-nank to exit QE2 and even raise rates to normalize capital markets but this is just absolutely insane. <br /><br />Seriously re-evaluating everything of a risk-on nature I own right now.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64007103077704602502011-03-03T15:51:45.551+00:002011-03-03T15:51:45.551+00:00LB, I hear you. I suspect another peripheral event...LB, I hear you. I suspect another peripheral event will prevent Mr.T from action. <br /><br />I have detected a few similar articles recently as well a nd suspect that sentiment is reaching an extreme similar to November 2009and November 2010.<br /><br />I also still sense a strong belief out here in Asia in DGDF. Despite the recent equity outflows, the belief in all things EM/Asia and commodities is still very strong among Asian investors.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43368207305630903092011-03-03T15:41:49.856+00:002011-03-03T15:41:49.856+00:00You got the call on 5y UST spot on, TMM.
Nice one...You got the call on 5y UST spot on, TMM. <br />Nice one!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24347396094409617172011-03-03T15:24:21.953+00:002011-03-03T15:24:21.953+00:00You were brave today.."ouch".
I'm fa...You were brave today.."ouch".<br />I'm far too much the coward to call Mt T looking at the context we're currently in.<br />I wouldn't try to call King next week either.Events move on and King may well have had to move on with them.No doubt he won't wis to have ,but soemetimes we all have to do things we don't wish to and that may well be where King is now.<br />Let me put it this way,it's so hard to call I wouldn't bet against it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30886128518635679512011-03-03T15:17:29.280+00:002011-03-03T15:17:29.280+00:00Skippy, see you at the World Cup, mate.
Surely, T...Skippy, see you at the World Cup, mate.<br /><br />Surely, Tricky was simply pulling off yet another ECB masterpiece of jawboning today. They MAY raise rates. In other news, PIIGS may fly.<br /><br />We also have this bollox hitting the news stands today in Noo Yawk, straphangers were eagerly learning of the dollar's demise, prompting LB to ponder once more the relationship between sentiment extremes and market turns:<br /><br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703313304576132170181013248.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read" rel="nofollow"> Dollar's Reign Ending? </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9632360573867860782011-03-03T15:11:49.252+00:002011-03-03T15:11:49.252+00:00Was reviewing the relationship between European co...Was reviewing the relationship between European core inflation and Oil today. At best oil impacts core with a very long lag, at worst there is no relationship at all. Clearly the July 2008 rate hike by the ECB may be one of the biggest policy errors in history. But it did not stop a sharp rise in the EUR and European short rates leading into the annocement (and JCT believing that he did the right thing). Still, I am very sympathetic to a long dollar position. JCT's policy error may end up being the gift that keeps on giving. <br /><br />Off to the sub-continent next week to see some cricket. What a fantastic match last night ;) <br /><br />I know, I know. The burnt stumps still reside in England..Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68835442714520120732011-03-03T15:05:20.000+00:002011-03-03T15:05:20.000+00:00I am surprised too. But what do I know? If ECB i...I am surprised too. But what do I know? If ECB is determined to screw EUR short this morning, it apparently succeeded. Now, what could push Irish to default, if they ever go that far?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52662740574174130052011-03-03T15:00:23.576+00:002011-03-03T15:00:23.576+00:00We recommend TMM repair to the local hostelry for ...We recommend TMM repair to the local hostelry for an Irish Car Bomb (for the uninitiated, a Bailey's dumped in a pint of Guinness). It will all look better after that. <br /><br />Big figuritis setting in again, a run at 1.40 in the cards, in spite of signs of life in US employment?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10470275437724248802011-03-03T14:42:23.936+00:002011-03-03T14:42:23.936+00:00pigs ahoy!pigs ahoy!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com