tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5055585370439411919..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Eurogroup English Dictionary (EED)Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47551964177898807802013-04-03T17:53:20.766+01:002013-04-03T17:53:20.766+01:00All going a bit pear-shaped today. Innit?All going a bit pear-shaped today. Innit?Saul Bolloxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78494521410457290032013-04-03T16:22:06.382+01:002013-04-03T16:22:06.382+01:00C Says
A day for Irish jokes is it?
How about thi...C Says<br /><br />A day for Irish jokes is it?<br />How about this then.<br /><br />http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-most-insane-chart-ever-irish-mortgage-arrears/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58395317027242079102013-04-03T15:55:09.362+01:002013-04-03T15:55:09.362+01:00Btw, the web site that Shall Not Be Named couldn&#...Btw, the web site that Shall Not Be Named couldn't help pointing out that the number of US construction jobs created was.... 0, and we repeat that here. This seems a relatively small number considering the "burgeoning recovery" in the "vibrant" US housing sector, as discussed here on several occasions. <br /><br />Which goes to show you can't always tell what's going on in the country from watching tree fellas (Irish builder joke) doing a teardown next door for some bloke who does insider trading, (sorry, that's "information arbitrage") for SAC.<br /><br />Speaking of which, wouldn't it be good for markets and national mood if Someone Really Big went away for cheating and did a decent stretch in the pokey?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62167940003470054822013-04-03T15:13:41.769+01:002013-04-03T15:13:41.769+01:00ADP was a bit light. ISM services declining, with ...ADP was a bit light. ISM services declining, with the employment component notably weak, a data point of some considerable importance since the US does more servicing than manufacturing these days.<br /><br />I don’t have anything of great macro significance to offer today {insert sarcastic commentary here}, except to say that this is the typical seasonal jobs pattern that we have seen emerge over the last 3-4 Aprils, and that modest market declines have begun soon afterwards (Spring Dip), followed by some kind of “event-driven” (i.e blamed on Europe) major sell-off later in the summer (June Swoon).<br /><br /> am a bit irritated by the AUD. With China still tightening to control inflation, we expect to see AUDUSD and AUDJPY reverse hard before long. Skippy, thanks for comments.<br /><br />We only have a few more trading days before Alcoa (so beaten down that it is likely to be irrelevant) and then the more meaningful Q1 earnings begin. Before that we get a NFP number on Friday that could be anywhere between 125-175k. As usual, 200k the euphoria number.<br /><br />As I write this, dodgy US beta (homebuilders, NFLX, skanky biotech) may just be beginning to form a line behind the woodshed, and the 10y is back to 1,83%. It's been a while since we had a good puke. Will Mr Market wait for Friday or get it over with early and then JBTFD?<br /><br />The media have been selling the idea that a major sell-off can’t happen in a period of continuous QE. That concept is about to be tested. Watch out momo monkeys, Mr Margin has you on speed dial.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45018677255254381042013-04-03T10:43:32.138+01:002013-04-03T10:43:32.138+01:00C Says
oh hello.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...C Says<br /><br />oh hello.<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-02/money-funds-meet-zero-yields-by-breaking-buck-taboo-euro-credit.html<br /><br />Not exactly a direct replica of days of old,but we have not read anything about this taboo since 2008.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19624279319517625502013-04-03T07:56:10.865+01:002013-04-03T07:56:10.865+01:00From a pure price perspective the AUD direction ma...From a pure price perspective the AUD direction may be resolved very soon. The consolidation (wedge/triangle) pattern since the end of 2010 is either a nice continuation pattern - with a final break out to 1.18? Or the start of a material downward correction? <br /><br />In my humble opinion, The price action in commodities and defensive leadership within equities suggests to me the odds are with the latter. As you noted the other day, Mr. Bond and Dr. Copper are not exactly screaming "strong global growth"Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35516853991991147562013-04-03T07:40:36.896+01:002013-04-03T07:40:36.896+01:00LB,
On AUDUSD and CADUSD, the diveregence betwee...LB, <br /><br />On AUDUSD and CADUSD, the diveregence between them and key commodity prices is curious. My understanding is that the FX piss takers ("reserve managers") still find the "relative" carry (and AAA)attractive. <br /><br />I had a meeting with a board member of an Asian CB last year (probably the biggest piss taker of them all) who bemoaned other regional CBs managing their reserves like macro hedge funds. In the same breath he was talking about buying more Australian bonds.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58114065442480812262013-04-02T23:27:52.335+01:002013-04-02T23:27:52.335+01:00C Says
Add this to your list the transports failed...C Says<br />Add this to your list the transports failed to confirm that up day and indeed the BP was down on the SP and the NYSE.Only the NAS went the the other way.<br />Without meaning it as being of any interest to day traders I think US equity is now in broad shorting territory for a topping range.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56526240012388975262013-04-02T19:41:17.539+01:002013-04-02T19:41:17.539+01:00Nice collection of charts here and a summary of mo...Nice collection of charts here and a summary of most of what we have reviewed here on a regular basis, i.e. the divergence of FX and credit trends from equities. In fact, many "risk" proxies like EURJPY and EMB are declining even as the SPX continues to grind higher. <br /><br />We have seen this kind of action before, a kind of "macro disconnect", along with peaks in P/E multiples, during past Aprils of the ZIRP era. Seasonality, QE style.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/Bonds-and-Currencies-Still-Not-On/4/2/2013/id/49026?Mod=MKTW" rel="nofollow"> Bonds and Currencies Still Not On Board </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77449475010658592332013-04-02T15:29:00.434+01:002013-04-02T15:29:00.434+01:00EURJPY below 120 support. Carry monkey is tired.EURJPY below 120 support. Carry monkey is tired.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56732106745354528922013-04-02T15:27:42.693+01:002013-04-02T15:27:42.693+01:00thanks @rossmor, good stuff, I visit with those na...thanks @rossmor, good stuff, I visit with those nattering nabobs of negativity on a regular basis... Hussman is a great read and very smart, but has made so many bad calls in the last year or so.<br /><br />Well, earnings don't matter today, for sure. Silly Season in full swing. Announcement upcoming from TSLA, and Elon gave the shorts a nice going over this week with Cold Steel, now he is going to power the new car with Musk Oil, or is it Snake Oil?<br /><br />Best time to short? After a monster squeeze to a blow off top. Nobody left to buy.<br /><br />Pets.com market again today. I expect to see a Pets Social Media IPO at any moment. Doggy Dating? Feline Friends? Hamster Home? Hello? No, I'm sorry, Richard Gere, it's just a joke....<br /><br />"The Original" made a good call on EURUSD the other day, at least short term. European data so miserable it almost has to get better b/c it can't get worse?<br /><br />Does anyone have any idea why AUDUSD and CADUSD are up here, instead of down there, a lot lower? Miners and energy very weak on slower demand and massive supply.<br /><br />US jobs report bingo starts tomorrow with ADP. Eyes Down.... Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60119049306013602082013-04-02T13:58:49.638+01:002013-04-02T13:58:49.638+01:00C says'
Sarris is gone.Such is the power of th...C says'<br />Sarris is gone.Such is the power of the church in Cyprus.Politically and then economically it could get very interesting there if the church agitates for an exit.Lot of influence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89954511721049172202013-04-02T11:29:56.228+01:002013-04-02T11:29:56.228+01:00Just to show no bias I should have added UK was no...Just to show no bias I should have added UK was no better than the two "stars".<br />Austerity is clearly working.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63399551738845156222013-04-02T11:27:23.820+01:002013-04-02T11:27:23.820+01:00C Says
Dynamics of this week are shaped by a bank ...C Says<br />Dynamics of this week are shaped by a bank hol Mon whereby 1st day of a new week/month/quarter for reinvesting div's also falls into the shortened week containing a couple of central bank meetings. This favours the longs initially for obvious reasons.I don't read anything more to it than that.<br /><br />Europe PMI's are uniformly bad.It's just a question of which one's are the worst. Step up Italy,Spain and Ireland with the first two accelerating downhill and Ireland taking a step back. France and Germany relative stars of the show,please do get the irony.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40896824461005954842013-04-02T05:07:35.493+01:002013-04-02T05:07:35.493+01:00Great vacation might be your dream. Travel to Bali...Great vacation might be your dream. Travel to Bali is not always expensive as there are many international flights providing special rates for early bird booking. There are also many selection of <a href="http://www.kuta-bali.com" rel="nofollow">Kuta hotels</a> offering special discount rates including <a href="http://www.seminyakbalihotels.com" rel="nofollow">Seminyak villas</a> and budget <a href="http://www.jakarta-hotels.net" rel="nofollow">Bali accommodation</a>Johaneshttp://www.seminyakhotelsbali.net/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72016362675187384412013-04-02T01:12:08.177+01:002013-04-02T01:12:08.177+01:00Whammer,
de nada
anon 11:42, aka rossmorguy lolWhammer,<br />de nada<br />anon 11:42, aka rossmorguy lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83483287761486410202013-04-02T00:48:28.975+01:002013-04-02T00:48:28.975+01:00LB, sorry to deluge you with unsolicited info but ...LB, sorry to deluge you with unsolicited info but you might get a kick out of this, regarding US housing.<br /><br />http://www.acting-man.com/?p=22396<br /><br />Cheers, rossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7791567180696169832013-04-01T23:47:58.272+01:002013-04-01T23:47:58.272+01:00egywwms390LB, I have no doubt you're familiar ...egywwms390LB, I have no doubt you're familiar with this man's work. But he is all over your concerns regarding earnings. This is his latest brilliant piece, poor guy.<br /><br />http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130401.htm<br /><br />Cheers, rossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76968171441469336752013-04-01T19:53:28.363+01:002013-04-01T19:53:28.363+01:00I was hoping to read something crazy on April Fool...I was hoping to read something crazy on April Fool's Day about a bizarre banking crisis in the small island of San Seriffe, where the banking system is 800% of GDP, along with the hapless attempts of the EU to solve it by haircutting small Seriffian depositors and offering them shares in the Bank of San Seriffe, followed by useless Dutch bureaucrats pouring gasoline on the fire, while in the background, a bearded man feeds $85B EVERY MONTH into the financial system in order to ensure crony capitalism remains dominant in the USA.<br /><br />But it has already happened....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51841529287838089982013-04-01T18:40:11.266+01:002013-04-01T18:40:11.266+01:00Thanks for that, Anon at 11:42 AM.Thanks for that, Anon at 11:42 AM.Whammerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13321677204508267915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28751286000826984832013-04-01T17:34:05.443+01:002013-04-01T17:34:05.443+01:00LB
Wrt the Yen,
Wave 4, 38.2% retracement. Then ...LB<br /><br />Wrt the Yen,<br /><br />Wave 4, 38.2% retracement. Then a move to 100. Maybe. I'm not much of an elliotician. Ben has taken their hero behind the woodshed for some cold steel several times. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59549147232816334872013-04-01T16:10:19.273+01:002013-04-01T16:10:19.273+01:00Any April Fool entries? David Bianco of the newly ...Any April Fool entries? David Bianco of the newly renamed Deutsche Reichsbank may have been pushing his luck a bit here, it is April 1st...<br /><br /><a href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/01/april-dip-in-stocks-is-unlikely-according-to-deutsche-bank/" rel="nofollow"> April Dip Unlikely - David Bianco </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-849373889979084572013-04-01T15:35:36.988+01:002013-04-01T15:35:36.988+01:00Weak ISM number. We almost had a normal market the...Weak ISM number. We almost had a normal market there for a few seconds.... wait, there's an announcement on the PA:<br /><br />"We apologize for the brief jolt of economic reality that some of you may have just experienced. We will now begin a regularly scheduled POMO maneuever, after which we will absorb the Q2 fund flows from 401k plans. Please replace your rally caps and party hats. There is no cause for alarm..."<br /><br />Quiz Time:<br /><br />Short Yen/Long Nikkei is....?<br /><br />A. Taking a breather.<br />B. So ov-uh.<br />C. Executing a wicked Fibonacci retracement.<br />D. Giving Momo Monkeys a bad morning.<br />E. DXJ - last month's ETF du jour?<br /><br />LB is on the other side of this trade for now, believing that (C) is the correct answer.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65072693572747276502013-04-01T15:01:55.681+01:002013-04-01T15:01:55.681+01:00rossmor guy:
It's good to know at least a few...rossmor guy:<br /><br />It's good to know at least a few people read my drivel. In the present, LB thinks that the truest expression of Fed fighting would be to short the long end - while the Fed is buying and probably will be buying for some time. That to me is the epitome of futility, the ultimate Widowmaker™ (see TMM's glossary of terms). <br /><br />As for equities, there are times when it appears as though SPX is simply a linear function of liquidity, but there are also these things called earnings that have been known to intercede at times... now, if we are talking about housing, my point is that is in fact now a very flat business with a tremendous ability to tell porkies about how well it is doing. The transmission mechanism between POMOs and home prices seems to be inefficient at best.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39162756907775002102013-04-01T12:41:45.438+01:002013-04-01T12:41:45.438+01:00C Says
Working Capital = Govt ReservesC Says<br /><br />Working Capital = Govt ReservesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com