tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5037873780540288571..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Would you believe it?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4585841176081154672008-03-17T18:24:00.000+00:002008-03-17T18:24:00.000+00:00Well yeah....and if Martians came down and bid $10...Well yeah....and if Martians came down and bid $1000/share for BSC, I'm sure the board would hit that bid too. The problem is that as things now stand Bear's net asset position is almost certainly negative to the tune of an 11 figure number, what happens a few months' hence doesn't really matter too much for BSC shareholders right now.<BR/><BR/>BTW, I', sure that the UK government figured that "if we hold on for a few months, things will improve and we'll be able to finmd a buyer for NRK at a reasonable price"...and we all know how that worked out...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51858620523565039452008-03-17T17:25:00.000+00:002008-03-17T17:25:00.000+00:00not true--if makets calm down during the earn out ...not true--if makets calm down during the earn out who knows how much bears assets might be worth--id roll the dice and bear always has--go all in with the 7 NTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38073466106716289762008-03-17T15:23:00.000+00:002008-03-17T15:23:00.000+00:00I suppose if Bear comes out and says they declare ...I suppose if Bear comes out and says they declare bankrputcy without this deal, and you have a choice between $2 and 0, you go for the 2. One can only presume that the siutation must be pretty dire for the BSC board to have accepted such a paltry sum...unless Jimmy Cayne somehow thought it was a bet at his bloody bridge tournament...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36059817920149752592008-03-17T15:14:00.000+00:002008-03-17T15:14:00.000+00:00why would any bsc shareholder vote for this deal--...why would any bsc shareholder vote for this deal---everyones cost is much higher--employees own 30% of the stock and two others (joe lewis and the boys from texas own another 15% ish) whats the downside --0 i thinnk unless the fed is putting a horse's head in joes bed not sure this gets voted throughAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24736889190305938282008-03-15T04:20:00.000+00:002008-03-15T04:20:00.000+00:00MM - where does your model place GBP/CHF at? Ama...MM - where does your model place GBP/CHF at? Amazing how heavily that pair has been hit. It closed at the very low of the day/week in NY..<BR/><BR/><BR/>2and20 - here's FX charting w/30 years of data<BR/>http://efx.tradesecuring.com/Misc/EFX.aspBrianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14027164932168556575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74859137289901589522008-03-14T18:05:00.000+00:002008-03-14T18:05:00.000+00:00oh, and where's the best place for free FX chartin...oh, and where's the best place for free FX charting? Yahoo Finance isn't bad, but I'm interested in looking at some long-term charts, they only go back to 1999.2and20https://www.blogger.com/profile/17253850117517112482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26952257068921933962008-03-14T18:02:00.000+00:002008-03-14T18:02:00.000+00:00that's similar to how i like to consider long-term...that's similar to how i like to consider long-term FX "value"..."things" in UK and Europe cost a hell of a lot more, so therefore currencies are overvalued. The pound deserves to be closer to 1 than 2 against the dollar, it was ~1.40 back in 2001/2002 slowdown, that's what I've got in mind for this cycle. And as for the Euro, even if it was 1-to-1 with the dollar, I suspect most goods and services would still be more in Europe.<BR/><BR/>Of course, there are many reasons why prices can remain different, as you can't arbitrage away many services, taxes, business rents/rates etc, but it still gives a good idea of over/under-valuation.2and20https://www.blogger.com/profile/17253850117517112482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9978949437984844602008-03-14T16:12:00.000+00:002008-03-14T16:12:00.000+00:00Anon, my estimate of "fair value" for USD/CHF is s...Anon, my estimate of "fair value" for USD/CHF is somewhere in the 1.30-1.35 region. This is calculated using an adjusted purcashing power methodology that I use to create a fair value estimate for another of other different currencies as well.<BR/><BR/>Qualitatively, having lived in Switzerland for a year in the mid-90's, I thought that true PPP was higher...say north of 1.50, in the same way that things in the UK that cost £1 generally seem to cost close to $1 in the US- despite fair value estimates of 1.5-1.65 for GBP/USD.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16341526320639565012008-03-14T16:04:00.000+00:002008-03-14T16:04:00.000+00:00Err, may I say that $2 per Swissie would be better...Err, may I say that $2 per Swissie would be better than one? :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8225566291885101642008-03-14T15:01:00.000+00:002008-03-14T15:01:00.000+00:00MM,you write, "usdchf 1.0000 wrong". I no doubt th...MM,<BR/>you write, "usdchf 1.0000 wrong". I no doubt the Swissy is at a very strange rate against the usd.<BR/><BR/>Two questions:<BR/><BR/>What is/could be the " right rate"?<BR/>And how you derived that rate?<BR/><BR/>thx,<BR/>pantherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-384083884462409072008-03-14T11:14:00.000+00:002008-03-14T11:14:00.000+00:00I am sceptical of the utilkity of money supply in ...I am sceptical of the utilkity of money supply in today's modern finan cial world, given that money can be "created" through the derivatives in ways that are not captured by the M's.<BR/><BR/>Moreover, there are ancillary distortions, like M3 typically rising during periods of crisis, not because of easy money policies, but because of money leaving securities markets and entering money markets (and thus coming under the purview of M3.)<BR/><BR/>Agustin Mackilay's <A HREF="http://liquidityblog.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow">Global Liquidity Blog</A> is a good resoruce for further explanation, insofar thinking about these sorts of issues is its primary raison d'etre.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51759289142982444092008-03-14T10:59:00.000+00:002008-03-14T10:59:00.000+00:00Thanks for the insight MM. And for all the efforts...Thanks for the insight MM. And for all the efforts that a pretty damn good blog requires. Don't want to overstretch, but another thing that I wonder about is the role of money supply and its linkage (if any) to the way out of the US mess. Any thoughts on that?mkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15438714839513014742noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88837319049066742992008-03-14T10:47:00.000+00:002008-03-14T10:47:00.000+00:00I think the answer's pretty much the same; if the ...I think the answer's pretty much the same; if the intervention were conducted without ancillary steps on the part of the relevant policymakers (rate cuts outside the US, for example), the market would tend to view it (after an initial dollar rally) as a $ selling opportunity. <BR/><BR/>Were policymakers to change the underlyign fundamentals via rate changes, the intervention would be more likely to meaningfully impact medium-term behaviour.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45810985052329076192008-03-14T10:40:00.000+00:002008-03-14T10:40:00.000+00:00Maybe I put my question wrong: I am trying to unde...Maybe I put my question wrong: I am trying to understand the what if scenario. Reads like this: I suppose the intervention takes place (for whatever reasons). How would it affect market participant expectations? Would they rather smell the trouble behind such type of action and bet against it or would they rather feel that the intervention was necessary and a wise thing to do?mkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15438714839513014742noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61561222292523547912008-03-14T10:22:00.000+00:002008-03-14T10:22:00.000+00:00MP, the waffle answer, but nevertheless the true a...MP, the waffle answer, but nevertheless the true answer, is "it depends". CB buying of euros, for example, would probably have only a small impact if the ECB were not prepared to cut rates. If the ECB did cut rates aggressively, then I thjink you could see a much bigger impact. <BR/><BR/>Similarly, if the BOJ were to return to ZIRP in the context of massive MOF intervention, then you probably could see a shift in trend. <BR/><BR/>However, both of these are hypotheticals, as I really struggl;e to see why the US administration would want to help out Johnny Foreigner in an election year.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39774680947488607362008-03-14T10:09:00.000+00:002008-03-14T10:09:00.000+00:00MM, got a question regarding a possible interventi...MM, got a question regarding a possible intervention to stabilize the USD decline. Assuming its a plausible scenario, what would the implications be of a coordinated CB action? What expectations&actions would it trigger among market participants in the ccy space?mkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15438714839513014742noreply@blogger.com