tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4972971761218398649..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: What now?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90751213338743503002015-02-11T09:53:29.574+00:002015-02-11T09:53:29.574+00:00LB - Don't lecture us on WW2 as I've proba...LB - Don't lecture us on WW2 as I've probably read as many books, if not more, than you have and my grandfather was in recon and could speak in German to the Wehrmacht and local population. Perhaps we can discuss that 'unsordid' act the Marshall Plan when America monopolized the bomb and compare/contrast the implications thereof to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? <br /><br />Anyway nobody is advocating Vietnam, Iraq, or a Korea in the US that I know or have read of. If you have pls send URL (not ZH pls). Arming the army of a sovereign nation is no different than Russia in Syria. I realize Ukraine is where it is due primarily to its own doing. People talk about corruption in Russia but never that in Ukraine like Yulia's billions. <br /><br />On markets, US fixed income has traded heavy, even after payrolls so could be sell on rallies or go short against longs elsewhere, perhaps Oz. I'm a bit worried about UK vs US, I've heard the trade idea from too many people and just looks too obvious for me. In stawwcks think you want to be defensive in stuff like staples and utilities. I haven't been an eco permabear like Mr LB (of course markets and eco can move differently), but I do think this recovery getting long in tooth. And I worry a lot like Dalio about what ammunition there is next recession or financial crisis. Years ago had you asked me about deflation I thought it was overdone and unlikely with ZIRP/QE but I think all that stimulus and it's still lingering and it's clearly an issue to worry about.<br /><br />Best of luck out there<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75179778462330699102015-02-11T09:46:09.728+00:002015-02-11T09:46:09.728+00:00LB,
I wasn't really referring to your comments...LB,<br />I wasn't really referring to your comments on the US re Ukraine. The US has it's foreign policies and they exist to perpetuate US self interest (as defined by State) as opposed to any notion that they are a shining beacon of 'we are right in the eyes of god so let our sword swing true'. That was bollocks 50 years ago and remains the same today saleable only to those who have decided not to think.<br /><br />No ,I was zeroing in on attempts to cast an analysis of the Ukraine situation as being possible by assigning causality to either Russian ,or EU (German) actions. In effect I was saying there are no whiter than white parties here ,you know actions and reactions (reflexivity a la Soros). Moreover I was making the point that assigning blame in any case is usually fruitless if all one is trying to do is to move the situation to a resolution. Of course , re the US state, they probably don't want a resolution in the way the ordinary person walking about in the Ukraine wants one. Indeed, our own govt isn't much better. Reading Hammond yesterday all I could say is 'not in my name fuckwit'.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86176540419401549642015-02-11T09:33:55.768+00:002015-02-11T09:33:55.768+00:00"Is checkmate the commenter formerly known as..."Is checkmate the commenter formerly known as "C"? Can't tell the commenters without a program...."<br /><br />Yes, that is correct. I had thought to make a more charismatic change ,for example 'C Fernandez-Ortega-Dominguez' ,but it's been so done !checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4175561440369164982015-02-11T01:29:57.778+00:002015-02-11T01:29:57.778+00:00Mr. T, exactly to the point. Anyone can toss aroun...Mr. T, exactly to the point. Anyone can toss around vague ideas like "spooz and dax are going to the moon because Janet and Draghi got your back". Basically there's an infinite supply of these comments. And basically if something is supplied to infinity, the theory of supply and demand tells us it's pretty much worthless.<br /><br />Why? Because they are easy to make, don't require depth, research, examination, historical references, comparison, seeking correlations etc. Funnymoney may be right or wrong, but that's irrelevant. I gratefully appreciate this blog and the author for the depth and context it provides on generally what is, or might be going on and the ideas I never would've thought by myself. To me it isn't about "absolute" answers in investment terms (and isn't probably intended to be) but general discussion for exchanging ideas.<br /><br />Funnymoney as a name to me implies (and perhaps is even intended to) literally just that: all the funny money tossed around as a result of impulsive reactions influenced mainly by 5-minute macro news. Now this is not to say I disagree with Funnymoney. To me there are a lot of reasons to like equities right now, and as a scandinavian I am naturally long with a bunch of local firms I deem to have good business models, balance sheets and cash flows (especially in context of soon to come NIRP environments), a bunch of other hand picked large, mid and small caps and USD, most of which has been built over a long period of time. My personal goal is not so much to be absolutely correct on a weekly or other short time period, but to seek out the possible long term fundamental losers and avoid that minefield early enough. Then other times I may try some small short term trading ideas, which I get ideas for example from this blog and the discussion.<br /><br />But I guess the point is, when making absolute claims on something it would be much better to provide some arguments too, because it makes the ideas worth much more, understandable and probably most importantly, discussable. Which repeating historical facts and making future guesstimates without any kind of substance does not.<br /><br />Sorry for the OT rant...hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87466416660836270432015-02-10T22:31:24.138+00:002015-02-10T22:31:24.138+00:00This really is like shooting fish in a barrel.
Fu...<i>This really is like shooting fish in a barrel.</i><br /><br />FunnyMoney, whats the point? I recognize that there are people here from lots of different environments, are you missing this? Do you think that my risk officer is going to go along with a "200% long equities because FunnyMoney told me to" strategy? <br /><br />I think you can make your point that there is no real risk in holding equities and that the Greenspan put has morphed into a much larger CB put without being so caustic. Understand that not everyone here has unlimited risk budgets, and trade ideas sometimes need to be a little more thought out than simply saying "its like shooting fish in a barrel".<br /><br />Also, maybe it's not so much about being RIGHT all the time here as it is putting your ideas out there for anonymous people to objectively weigh in on them?<br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53061358121282414082015-02-10T20:34:11.096+00:002015-02-10T20:34:11.096+00:00@checkmate - Yes you're probably right regardi...@checkmate - Yes you're probably right regarding dissent providing opportunities. So buying Dax, Nasdaq & Nikkei today have netted about +2% +1.4% & +1.5% respectively. Not bad for a day's work.<br /><br />US equity indexes will be making new all time highs by the end of the week, with Eu equities not far behind. This really is like shooting fish in a barrel.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11615149366395208042015-02-10T20:06:39.422+00:002015-02-10T20:06:39.422+00:00Is checkmate the commenter formerly known as "...Is checkmate the commenter formerly known as "C"? Can't tell the commenters without a program....<br /><br />- WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21403707629676578942015-02-10T19:41:47.104+00:002015-02-10T19:41:47.104+00:00Markets seem to be placing way too much weight on ...Markets seem to be placing way too much weight on Greece, again. The high probability course is can kicking and an acknowledgment by Germany that throwing good money after bad is in fact a good investment for them, with face saving by Greek politicians who extracted something from the Germans without actually changing the long term dynamics. The other possibilites seem so distant that they are not really worth discussing. One mention of having the German economy franc-ified will make the $11bil or whatever look like chump change.<br /><br />So if this is yet another TWINE setup, is the time right for a EU risk-on trade? I'm thinking long EUR, short bunds, long estx.<br /><br />Also, this move in US rates looks like the real deal. Breakevens are moving higher, FF futures are converging with the fed talk. I don't think we would need too much to get the USGG30YR north of 300.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84155494704741577672015-02-10T19:35:45.322+00:002015-02-10T19:35:45.322+00:00http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/...http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/<br /><br />Lefty,<br /><br />Once again I find myself agreeing with you. Maybe it just shows I'm simple. But maybe some of your compatriots didn't read articles like these that explained much of why there can be a civil war in Ukraine in the first place. I suspect these boys will get the Cyprus treatment unless Obama issues an executive order. Anyway, verbal political disagreement seldom gets settled...Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51593270461757957212015-02-10T19:13:05.484+00:002015-02-10T19:13:05.484+00:00C, you're lucid, as always, but wrong. My argu...C, you're lucid, as always, but wrong. My argument about the US proceeding along the path of its Vietnam involvement, as stated to the Europeans by Russia, reported here by the BBC:<br /><br />http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31356372<br /><br />Look, sometimes there is a really evil entity out there doing bad things, like ISIL. Unfortunately, we sometimes have to admit that the evil entity is closer to home. It took a long time for people to see Vietnam for what it was, a stupid pointless and ultimately losing exercise. In Ukraine it should be screamingly obvious, given the lessons of history.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62665194817274368372015-02-10T16:11:58.444+00:002015-02-10T16:11:58.444+00:00China CPI fell to a 5yr low in Jan coming in at 0....China CPI fell to a 5yr low in Jan coming in at 0.8%.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64330804147567964682015-02-10T15:43:05.265+00:002015-02-10T15:43:05.265+00:00LB you like China and India here? The chop in EM ...LB you like China and India here? The chop in EM has been horrendous from a trend point of view. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14780440756135011072015-02-10T13:56:06.069+00:002015-02-10T13:56:06.069+00:00@Checkmate(1:45)
That's brilliant,Sir.@Checkmate(1:45)<br /><br />That's brilliant,Sir.Rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19063035042547309162015-02-10T13:52:34.528+00:002015-02-10T13:52:34.528+00:00For some it may be a lame comment:
http://stockch...For some it may be a lame comment:<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tnx&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41298869661Rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2748696041447005612015-02-10T13:48:36.632+00:002015-02-10T13:48:36.632+00:00FM,
The fact there is dissent should warm your co...FM, <br />The fact there is dissent should warm your cockles. Without any your opportunities would be limited. Who eventually is right I don't know ,but at this time given I am using volatility to buy risk in the same places then we sing from the same hymn book.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35463174779942042072015-02-10T13:45:47.992+00:002015-02-10T13:45:47.992+00:00Unfortunately LB you are not really "challeng...Unfortunately LB you are not really "challenging conventional wisdom" anymore than the Anon was who took up the other view on the issue. What you both were doing is something I have seen in most major conflict issues. That is your efforts were directed at attempting to apportion blame based up on some form of historical analysis that you had built a rational for.<br /><br />Unfortunately, resolving conflicts doesn't even begin until these approaches are dropped and effort focuses no on where the parties think they have come from ,but where they wish to be in future. Raking over 'old ashes' effectively prevents such a focus.<br /><br />It's a rare conflict that can really be analysed in a way that finds one party blameless and the other guilty on all charges. The reality is usually a lot more sublime than that. However, 'reality' tends to be absent until parties start/are forced to become more objective about their goals and what they want to achieve.<br />Apportioning blame has to be put to oneside for that to happen.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47501452273964980892015-02-10T13:44:49.391+00:002015-02-10T13:44:49.391+00:00Just a quick comment as a few people have referenc...Just a quick comment as a few people have referenced me in their recent posting, warning of downside in equities due to Greek/geopolitical risks...<br /><br />Let me state this definitively:<br />THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE IN BUYING EQUITIES - the Central Banks have your back x100.<br /><br />If there is a Grexit: The ECB (supported by the Fed, BoJ and PBoC) will inject unlimted amounts of liquidity. Similarly for any other major dislocation.<br /><br />Folks, I hate to sound like a broken record but the situation is this simple. I think for intelligent institutional investors this is hard to fathom: i.e. surely Govts/CBs can't be this stupid? Yes, they can - and they are.<br /><br />I continue to aggressively buy every dip in EU/US (and some Japanese) equities. FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35879062691695446622015-02-10T13:17:56.936+00:002015-02-10T13:17:56.936+00:00Morning all. Sorry about the extended politics las...Morning all. Sorry about the extended politics last night, but it isn't a bad idea for someone to challenge the conventional "wisdom" once in a while.<br /><br />Favorite morning headline on BBC: Strauss-Kahn: Orgies were rare. Beautiful, don't you think?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31318120" rel="nofollow"> Only 12 Sex Parties </a><br /><br />Only 12, the poor old lad. Deprivation...<br /><br />Now, fast forward to this morning, and we hear that Europe is going to blink (surprise!) after Greece had suggested turning to Russia (boo, hiss....) or China for love, all playing out very much as Polemic had outlined here last week. Along with that we see an unwind in the fear trades including selling of US long bonds, so nice call, MM.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49866384355753678162015-02-10T11:08:44.397+00:002015-02-10T11:08:44.397+00:00Giving Ukraine nato membership would have been con...Giving Ukraine nato membership would have been considered a provocation and rightly so - an organisation created to be hostile towards Russia on its western border where it has often been threatened before. In addition the U.S. wanted to build missile sites in poland. If the same was happening in, say Mexico or ahem Cuba...<br /><br />There is a long history in this region preceding the current crisis. My only thought is where the upside for Russia remains for continuing this conflict after annexing the strategically significant Crimea? Perhaps it's saving face, which is coming at a high price.Napoleonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47781828759355560922015-02-10T09:52:18.493+00:002015-02-10T09:52:18.493+00:00Excellent post. Not just because of the analysis b...Excellent post. Not just because of the analysis but perhaps the near-perfect timing (tbc). <br /><br />I had been watching the 10 year myself as it extended into something of a mini blow off top. But is this 'it'? <br /><br />All we need to worry about now is the global deflationary black hole that is China. Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30790813440414108612015-02-10T05:58:03.461+00:002015-02-10T05:58:03.461+00:00theta
indeed, when most assets seem overpriced in...theta<br /><br />indeed, when most assets seem overpriced invest in NOTHING but a personal business if you have a good idea, or loan some cash on a peer to peer basis<br /><br />there is nothing wrong with cash hell, there is no inflation or is it. As a reminder you certainly looked like a fool if you were not invested in anything internet by the end of 1999 but hey, oh a pretty cool 'dip' came soon after<br /><br />Ukraine is one horrid conflict and a giant example of unintended consequences in the making. Last night some photos of the MH17 plane victims appeared on the screen which helped me to wake the fuck up on how atrocious that war is<br /><br />Ukraine was doomed the moment some Europeans like GERMANS opposed its NATO membership years ago. You bet Merkel must feel sorry today you know, we did not want to have to defend you because we bloody well knew you would be attacked by Russia some day<br /><br />what an awful farce. You need to know that 60% of German politicians are on Russia payroll. there.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8044857386622084572015-02-10T04:36:00.431+00:002015-02-10T04:36:00.431+00:00Well, well, oil prices are a fascinating topic. It...Well, well, oil prices are a fascinating topic. It all really depends on whether one thinks they are a function of supply and demand or a bizarre trading playground for leveraged currency speculators. That's the thing that makes gold and oil different from lumber, see, some people do treat them as alternative currencies.<br /><br />My last word to Anon @ 9:44, sadly, if you really do fail to understand even the most simple aspects of WW2, there isn't much point in conversing with you.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32489777353112418002015-02-10T02:51:45.740+00:002015-02-10T02:51:45.740+00:00February 9, 2015 at 9:44 Anonymous
Hey, Fool, th...<br /><br />February 9, 2015 at 9:44 Anonymous <br /><br />Hey, Fool, this is an economics blog. STFU and let's read what Leftback has to say.<br /><br />You could always enlist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57482066452057744312015-02-09T22:36:57.560+00:002015-02-09T22:36:57.560+00:00Citi cuts its oil forecast: “Recent rally in crude...Citi cuts its oil forecast: “Recent rally in crude prices looks more like a head-fake than sustainable turning point” Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11581637549155166452015-02-09T22:25:01.585+00:002015-02-09T22:25:01.585+00:00U.S. Crude Supply Rose 3.5M Bbl Last Week in Bloom...U.S. Crude Supply Rose 3.5M Bbl Last Week in Bloomberg Survey ( would get us to almost 417mm Bbl ...new 80yr high<br /><br />U.S. Major Shale Play Oil Output to Grow 68k B/d in March: EIA <br /><br />Maybe it will make it to $10Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com