tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4969745802007207929..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: My least favourite kind of marketMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87062568449127287212008-05-15T08:55:00.000+01:002008-05-15T08:55:00.000+01:00There is a massive supply accumulating of low qual...There is a massive supply accumulating of low quality crude accumulating in Iran's ports on rented vessels. About 2o million barels of suplly in just over a month. Isn't first the lowest quality supplier expected to have inventory problems?Lemmiwinkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17888530968877107303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3844719261359172612008-05-15T01:18:00.000+01:002008-05-15T01:18:00.000+01:00Mr. Prop -Nailing the top is:10% Knowledge25% Cojo...Mr. Prop -<BR/><BR/>Nailing the top is:<BR/><BR/>10% Knowledge<BR/>25% Cojones/Lunacy/Chutzpah<BR/>65% Luck<BR/><BR/>How much leverage are you trying to use on the trade? You might look at DUG to avoid theta and margin risk. Eliminating time and house risk can do a lot for you.<BR/><BR/>PS - Did you hear that Calpers CIO is gone AND the CEO is leaving June 30? Rats jumping ship...Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09501392241484422000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81253592068373583252008-05-14T20:48:00.000+01:002008-05-14T20:48:00.000+01:00d-Any record of XOM leading crude. I am in hope m...d-<BR/><BR/>Any record of XOM leading crude. I am in hope mode and will take any carrot on offerMr. Prophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04722878937427929606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40349057953466156782008-05-13T23:06:00.000+01:002008-05-13T23:06:00.000+01:00Mr. Prop -The oil trade is definitely in strong ha...Mr. Prop -<BR/><BR/>The oil trade is definitely in strong hands right now... I have been on the wrong side of the table as well. I am targeting shorts on energy companies who are negatively impacted by the parabolic rise in spot crude. It's the same momo money that's following the strong hands in crude.<BR/><BR/>XOM's lack of participation is intriguing.Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09501392241484422000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19368318763488372722008-05-13T20:33:00.000+01:002008-05-13T20:33:00.000+01:00First, the inflation debate is between those with ...First, the inflation debate is between those with faith in the Phillips curve and the M-squared argument that globalization is at the end of the day inflatinary. What I would say is that buying 5y5y breakevens is a nearly free option on central banks losing inflation credibility, which in my mind was undeserved anyway. They were just lucky thanks to the 1990's secular forces of globalization and technology which are fading. At least G-spin was right about that even if he is responsible for this one fine mess we are in now - so much for serial bubble blowing as a cornerstone for setting monetary policy. Second, the theory that higher oil prices, higher stocks, and higher bond yields being an unsustainable correlation is so far unproven. This correlation can persist in an inflationary boom, but surely this is unlikely in the face of growing overcapaity in china, global credit crunch, energy prices, and a popping of the housing bubbles just about everywhere. As for oil, the greater fool theory dominates. Despite negative fundamentals of weakening global demand and a heck of a lot of supply coming on the market in 2009, it is just about money. Calpers wants to put 7.2bn in commodities by 2010. This is on top of the 250bn ish that is already in the asset class, a whopping 5-fold increase in 3yrs. When does the "Emperor has no clothes" moment appear. You know the one that wasted the Dow in 1929, Gold in 1980, Nikkei in 1989, the Naz in 2000, and Chinese stocks in 2007. I recognize that understanding the fat tail risk on the oil spike is impossible. I thought oil topped on Monday, but so far I look like an idiot, just another idiot which the momentum traders count on to short it and then buy it back higher. I ask when will it become obvious to the collective and deluded masses that buying crude oil at these levels is no differnt than buying Dutch Tulips...Mr. Prop is frustrated, sorry for venting....Mr. Prophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04722878937427929606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88269925134572015772008-05-13T20:17:00.000+01:002008-05-13T20:17:00.000+01:00Re: Central Bank TargetingIf there is one thing we...Re: Central Bank Targeting<BR/><BR/>If there is one thing we should have learned in the past 30 years, it's that economists targeting anything will be wrong eventually. Furthermore, their targeting creates distortions in the economy that destabilize it.<BR/><BR/>Monetary Base Targeting<BR/>Inflation Targeting<BR/>Growth Targeting<BR/><BR/>Just get rid of the CB completely.<BR/><BR/>PS - The US FRB has started the shift to a growth target with its dual mandate...unlike the ECB.Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09501392241484422000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30286534213587570252008-05-13T18:08:00.000+01:002008-05-13T18:08:00.000+01:00David, I think the typical market reaction to infl...David, I think the typical market reaction to inflation has been because in the post-Volcker era, CBs typically <I>have</I> responded credibly to inflation .<BR/><BR/>It seems to me that some of that credibility might be wavering- in the US, of course, but look also at the reaction of UK markets to today's CPI print. And price action in bonds today has been unpleasant for the longs, I can assure you.<BR/><BR/>Insofar as inflation in the West is being driven by the three axioms of globalization, one might credibly wonder what impact that tightening to meet an inflation target could have, when inflation is not being driven by domestic demand. Indeed, I am starting to wonder if we are about to see the end of inflation targeting as we know it....might CBs start to target something else...like nominal GDP growth, perhaps?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23263190516862745532008-05-13T17:14:00.000+01:002008-05-13T17:14:00.000+01:00Macroman,One thing I wonder about: will markets ev...Macroman,<BR/><BR/>One thing I wonder about: will markets ever stop having a deflationary reaction to inflation news?<BR/><BR/>What I mean is, UK inflation is bubbling, and that should mean higher nominal rates, a weaker currency and higher gold. The same holds true for the U.S. (see import prices). Yet the reaction of the markets is generally to look past inflation and towards what the Fed/BOE might do about it: tighten. Okay I understood this in '05, when the Fed still had some credibility and inflation was not in headlines every day. But now? With negative real rates again? The more inflation rises, the more accommodative monetary policy becomes, without any CB action.<BR/><BR/>I ask because if the tone changes, if inflation news is greeted as a signal of higher inflation ahead, then bond yields will have a lot of explaining to do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86937301020286336382008-05-13T14:39:00.000+01:002008-05-13T14:39:00.000+01:00Hi, I noticed that you stopped posting your portfo...Hi, <BR/><BR/>I noticed that you stopped posting your portfolio setup. Last time you did it on March 18th. <BR/><BR/>best regards,<BR/>dAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71414928018233950632008-05-13T10:53:00.000+01:002008-05-13T10:53:00.000+01:00He should be writing a letter, but I am given to u...He should be writing a letter, but I am given to understand that the tolerance band is up to 3%, so he has until 3.051 before he actually has to write, sadly.<BR/><BR/>Hike next month please, Merv!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com