tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4798131392445021253..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Big Day #1Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16333503703403205162015-12-04T01:04:10.808+00:002015-12-04T01:04:10.808+00:00"Time for caution on the Euro"
MM - cr..."Time for caution on the Euro" <br /><br />MM - credit where credit is due. Sometimes the simple ones are the best and this was superbly thought out, clearly enunciated and profitable. <br /><br />Satisfaction guaranteed indeed Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75690102067735934842015-12-04T00:10:19.810+00:002015-12-04T00:10:19.810+00:00AnonymousNovember 30, 2015 at 11:09 AM
"Just ... AnonymousNovember 30, 2015 at 11:09 AM<br />"Just buy european equities,sell euro, sell oil.. What could possibly go wrong."<br />Apparently not much with the BOJ supporting all equity bids. There are times when QE is free money. This is one of them."<br /><br />The holiday grind ups give such a fall impression. See China's week off after their slaughter and Thanksgiving after Paris. <br /><br />Bund is back to the previous ECB, Esx back to Monday after Paris. Grind up in ignorance then reality. But, if we're all making money, whatever works.<br /><br />Would love an opec surprise. USD might help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52286829847088494042015-12-03T20:47:19.854+00:002015-12-03T20:47:19.854+00:00Spoos seem to more or less bounce off the 50 day m...Spoos seem to more or less bounce off the 50 day moving average, and we closed our options punt. One simple reading of the price action is that the selling is over for now, with Spoos now pinned into a narrow range between the 50 and 200 dma. So that means equities may be boring for a while. Meanwhile fixed income and FX are where all the volatility promises to be in the next few days. We will probably take a pass on tomorrow's trading after the BLS Random Number Generator but we will be keen to pick things up after the dust settles. For now, we have added modestly to our long TLT and AGG positions.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85306383647173798282015-12-03T19:56:56.499+00:002015-12-03T19:56:56.499+00:00Yes, punters, that thud was indeed LB falling out ...Yes, punters, that thud was indeed LB falling out of the hammock and rolling on the floor laughing at the spectacle of so many traders caught offside. We did mention that short EURUSD was a crowded trade, didn't we? Now that, my friends, is a squeeze.<br /><br />Wish we had traded the EURUSD directly from the long side, but like Nico we elected to trade equities instead, in our case we were long SPY puts and it's been a decent day. The surprise to us was the massive reversal in US rates, but this seems to us a perfect opportunity to reload our long US fixed income position, as the US data seem to be getting weaker by the day.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62695658931293319162015-12-03T19:25:03.568+00:002015-12-03T19:25:03.568+00:00An inverted yield curve (2-10) has always been, an...An inverted yield curve (2-10) has always been, and will almost certainly be again, a necessary precursor to the coming financial catastrophe. I bring this up today because the curve is having one of the most steepening 1-day moves in years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29360646232309953612015-12-03T19:20:54.545+00:002015-12-03T19:20:54.545+00:00I was expecting EUR to rebound as the part of &quo... I was expecting EUR to rebound as the part of "buy on news", though the magnitude is still surprising.<br /><br />Interesting development on US equity. Now we are two weeks away from Fed lifting rate, I would think that it is another chance to load equity, because the first rate raise usually won't be the straw to break camel's back. So there is likely to be another round of SP rally here, maybe the last before the next financial crisis. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59329110275423953622015-12-03T19:19:45.202+00:002015-12-03T19:19:45.202+00:00Eurostoxx futures, the busiest, most liquid contra...Eurostoxx futures, the busiest, most liquid contract in the world are down FIVE PERCENT. Crowded long trade it was<br /><br />no triumph here but if some of you paid attention to my warning two threads ago regarding Draghi Santa... it would made me feel useful as the resident 'cautious' grandpa. 'Normal' trading is back, the CB put slowly dissolving.<br /><br />i built such a massive short this week i have to take 2/3 off the table at close tonight the rest may run into JanuaryNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22348767298638002332015-12-03T18:21:01.116+00:002015-12-03T18:21:01.116+00:00Position squaring all over the place as far as I c...Position squaring all over the place as far as I can see... which includes short covering in some of the more crowded equity trades. My main take on the ECB, well ... biggest story (on the day) is really that they CUT inflation forecasts, but opted to deliver less than the market expected. Speculations as to why will mount, but perhaps Draghi and the uber doves struggled to get the rest aboard on the kitchen sink. <br /><br />More generally, this is a significant further easing package committing to much lower rates, for much longer and more QE. Of course, it will take a while before that reality sets in. December looks difficult now, with Draghi cancelling x-mas.<br /><br /> CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57899434533319653652015-12-03T16:10:52.409+00:002015-12-03T16:10:52.409+00:00Technical stops taken out in Euro this morning, th...Technical stops taken out in Euro this morning, though honestly not sure why ppl still do that. But that was fun trading. <br /><br />In other markets, the MLP's are getting hammered again, as Natural Gas ekes lower. Year end selling written all over this one but until gas/oil price pop, its a tough trade. This time HY &IG pipleline bonds are getting hit as well. <br /><br />ISM services crap again, inline with MM theme of everything surprising to the downside. <br /><br />CCC bonds have stopped going down at least. As long as oil holds in hear I'm gonna stay in the bull camp<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85998662968107651162015-12-03T15:56:39.175+00:002015-12-03T15:56:39.175+00:00Big day also for Brazil ... EWZ up 3+% this mornin...Big day also for Brazil ... EWZ up 3+% this morning ... an anti-Dilma rally?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20991385044452715932015-12-03T15:47:27.239+00:002015-12-03T15:47:27.239+00:00I just heard a loud thud - did Leftback fall off h...I just heard a loud thud - did Leftback fall off his hammock from sheer excitement?<br />Paradoxically, the more adverse a reaction we get to the ECB decision, the more likely it is that Yellen believes the way to fellate the market would be to, first and foremost, meet its expectations, which in the case of the US implies a hike. <br />Like I said yesterday, will be an interesting few weeks. 2's/10's could be in 15-20 bps by the time its all said and done.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7642934396663192782015-12-03T15:35:35.502+00:002015-12-03T15:35:35.502+00:00The proctologist is busy today. The proctologist is busy today. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77644971541246809652015-12-03T15:13:24.178+00:002015-12-03T15:13:24.178+00:00Wow, what a bloody slaughter of crowed tradeWow, what a bloody slaughter of crowed tradeCityhunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-798584753654685342015-12-03T14:47:45.016+00:002015-12-03T14:47:45.016+00:00Citi experiences extraordinary levels of market vo...Citi experiences extraordinary levels of market volume following ECB decision. EURUSD 500% to 600% higher as normal Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3190975719500393682015-12-03T14:31:30.465+00:002015-12-03T14:31:30.465+00:00Fading expectations of CB actions into CB announce...Fading expectations of CB actions into CB announcements has been the trade of 2015. <br />ECB do it again <br />Almost too easy this .. <br /><br />Anyone going for a 'no fed hike' for the multi forecast Ladbrokes special?Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17995105601380061592015-12-03T13:43:03.966+00:002015-12-03T13:43:03.966+00:00Heh. Fireworks indeed.
Go the FT.
Not sure Dragh...Heh. Fireworks indeed.<br /><br />Go the FT.<br /><br />Not sure Draghi had any hope of keeping everyone satisfied.Quarrelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11571610885924365688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12780676435936799932015-12-03T12:56:16.237+00:002015-12-03T12:56:16.237+00:00The rate decision was erroneously leaked/hacked on...The rate decision was erroneously leaked/hacked on the FT. Already a bit of shit show. Things look in line to underwhelming. crackerjack financehttp://www.crackerjackfinance.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34012520304752344402015-12-03T10:32:59.180+00:002015-12-03T10:32:59.180+00:00Ex energy at 1% is what Draghi has a problem with ...Ex energy at 1% is what Draghi has a problem with because this is where inflation will stabilise at when the base effects of oil fall out of the yoy headline figure. The data has been positive recently but its important to not lose sight of the bigger picture, growth is still stuck at low levels, 1.5% growth is not bad but its not going to close the huge output gap very quickly. I say fair play to Draghi for wanting to be pro active and get ahead of the curve. The EUR could very well pop higher today especially with non farm tomorrow but I think it will be faded pretty quickly given the medium term outlook for the ECB/FED divergence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51646787005917182722015-12-03T09:40:15.271+00:002015-12-03T09:40:15.271+00:00Dax is being front-run heavily be big money, looks...Dax is being front-run heavily be big money, looks like the ECB have already told the banks that more easing is coming today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38915022280133037752015-12-03T09:16:08.245+00:002015-12-03T09:16:08.245+00:00EU economic growth increasing - ECB will launch mo...EU economic growth increasing - ECB will launch more QE, cut rates.<br />US is approaching recession - Fed has abandoned QE, will hike rates.<br /><br />roflAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com