tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4785387337517970659..comments2024-03-28T11:29:09.718+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A spectre of short coveringMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28361680982401137472016-12-01T17:44:01.386+00:002016-12-01T17:44:01.386+00:00Washedup -- it is a little hard to tell, still, so...Washedup -- it is a little hard to tell, still, some of it might be the usual "customers bitch about pricing" in a new wrapper.<br /><br />I'm in the tech maintenance business, we sell support contracts that renew yearly. Those are priced in dollars. So last year's support is now more expensive in a local currency, and the pushback is beginning. Our costs are primarily in dollars, so it's not like we have room to negotiate.<br /><br />- WhammerWhammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56205697453426202552016-12-01T03:19:16.511+00:002016-12-01T03:19:16.511+00:00Whammer - care to elaborate? Not surprised by it j...Whammer - care to elaborate? Not surprised by it just trying to get some sense of how representative this 'trouble' may be.<br />Booger you around? Haven't seen u on the board in a while curious what your thoughts on bucky are.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58795524220103301692016-12-01T00:36:14.293+00:002016-12-01T00:36:14.293+00:00The dollar strength is causing some trouble in my ...The dollar strength is causing some trouble in my little corner of the world, where we do global pricing in dollars. The international customers are getting restless....<br /><br />- WhammerWhammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18647042858438478592016-11-30T20:46:45.418+00:002016-11-30T20:46:45.418+00:00The DX failed to make a new high today despite the...The DX failed to make a new high today despite the red-hot employment data, which may indicate some dollar fatigue. It will be interesting to keep half an eye on gold and the GDX, which didn't make a new low today.<br /><br />TLT also failed to make a new low. Earlier in the day, LB looked at some munis and they were trading well, which was perhaps an indicator of what was to follow in the Treasury market. IQI is actually up on the day, and there has been a strong bounce in the Long Bond (up more than 1% from the low), possibly on the beginning of short covering by Treasury bears after a failure to make a new high in yields today. The long and grinding road to a bottom in US fixed income continues, apparently.<br /><br />It strains credulity to think that the BLS can find enough hot sauce in the pantry to spice up NFP and top today's ADP fantasy number, so we are probably looking at meat loaf for breakfast on Friday when we convene for NFP bingo, and perhaps the first large volume buying day in US Treasurys for some time. But before that happens, we get an ISM number tomorrow.<br /><br />Two things are not going to happen next week when the ECB meets. First, Super Mario is not going to announce a new and more massive bazooka, because he doesn't have to, the € has fallen to the 1,05 area and that will do for now, and nobody needs to send Bucky into Outer Space here. Second, he is not going to announce a cessation of bond buying as some media half-wits have suggested, b/c he doesn't have to, and nobody needs yields of BTPs, OATs, bunds, gilts and/or Treasurys to go zooming into Outer Space. All things considered, the likelihood of EURUSD weakening further seems slim.<br /><br />Oil traders who were short into today's OPEC shenanigans are apparently suicidal, but now that they have all been cleaned out, the crude market still has to cope with a spot price of near $50 in the face of a continuing glut of supply that is going to be around a long time, so we think it will be worthwhile to consider fading the late arriving crowd before long.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50313774889037838782016-11-30T19:25:46.108+00:002016-11-30T19:25:46.108+00:00I wonder if oil is gonna make a new high, > 53.... I wonder if oil is gonna make a new high, > 53... oil equities sure are loving it. <br /><br />Just looking at the charts in US equities, we do look pretty good. Probably means we grind higher in Decemberabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51486587074453216062016-11-30T17:46:01.166+00:002016-11-30T17:46:01.166+00:00my nephews love discomy nephews love discoNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43365806713758980412016-11-30T17:38:24.329+00:002016-11-30T17:38:24.329+00:00T - GS insiders have been unloading like crazy int...T - GS insiders have been unloading like crazy into this spike, but that may or may nor mean anything.<br />I agree with the change of benchmark metrics to cash flow based.<br />Its really all a red herring ultimately - there are two things through my life in the most painful way possible.<br /><br />1. The economy has its own dynamics and the impact of policy (even monetary policy, actually) is quite overstated. Things like household formation and the consumer leveraging cycle are way more powerful than say dodd frank, and that works both ways.<br />2. There has never been a major stimulus passed (control of both houses or not) without politicians being hit in the face with a frying pan first. There are more cats to herd than seems obvious.<br /><br />Add to this 3 observations about the world we may be entering into for the next 18-24 months - namely a world in which.<br /><br />1. Rates disconnect from inflation expectations in messy ways<br />2. Inflation disconnects from economic growth in messy ways<br />3. Assets disconnect from economic growth in messy ways<br /><br />Unless you are a fan of disco, you probably weren't born the last time these things were true. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68301149018962755792016-11-30T16:26:06.603+00:002016-11-30T16:26:06.603+00:00Great article.
the tldr: JBTFDGreat article.<br /><br />the tldr: JBTFDJustabeancounternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30140293794769248212016-11-30T16:13:03.042+00:002016-11-30T16:13:03.042+00:00Mnuchin: "We're going to cut corporate ta...Mnuchin: "We're going to cut corporate taxes, which will bring huge amounts of jobs back to the United States.".<br /><br />Am I the only one out there that does not see the connection? Profit margins (operating & net) have been as high as they have ever been, for quite a while. Are we now supposed to believe that the net (post-tax) margins were just not high enough to stimulate more growth & hiring? <br /><br />The immediate impacts of lowering tax rate would be (in order) <br /> a) the street moving from EV/EBITDA to EV/OCF <br /> b) more FCF to fund buybacks & M&A<br /> c) new projects?<br /><br />If anything, the tax holiday is giving the message to the stubborn toddler that if you hold your breath long enough, we will buy you dessert.<br /><br />Funny though, GS seems to be doing quite well.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19353564877354471052016-11-30T16:00:01.253+00:002016-11-30T16:00:01.253+00:00As far as buying a correction for the US bonds mar...As far as buying a correction for the US bonds market goes then today looks important. That EOD needs to turn around the early action and finish weaker. If it can do that it should encourage those in to increase their position. If it finishes the other way then going forward looks like a setup for covering action.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75382203195618922132016-11-30T15:57:07.527+00:002016-11-30T15:57:07.527+00:00Never thought I would see the day when the Irish M...Never thought I would see the day when the Irish MEP Luke Flanagan asked Mario Draghi directly, and in Parliament, a question.<br /><br />Flanagan :<br /><br />“In 2007 you were governor of Banca d’Italia…Unicredti the biggest bank on your watch: Can you please confirm whether you were informed by the Central Bank of Ireland of the multi-billion Euro breaches at UniCredit Dublin? If so, can you explain why the bank has never been sanctioned for those breaches of 2007.”<br /><br />The exchange: <br /><br />https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1162932557117392&id=182354901841834<br /><br />The whole sordid Irish banking debacle now published as a book: <br /><br />https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/685170<br /><br />Looks like Trump picked another Goldman alumnus as Treasury Secretary.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70719574101995375492016-11-30T15:55:06.770+00:002016-11-30T15:55:06.770+00:00The reference to 6% yields was removed from Bloomb...The reference to 6% yields was removed from Bloomberg's Drunkenmiller story. I thought the man had gone nutty for a moment. ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70136778430121972352016-11-30T15:54:01.458+00:002016-11-30T15:54:01.458+00:00Good stuff there Nico. "If you don’t want bar...Good stuff there Nico. "If you don’t want barking, don’t get a Sheltie." ;-)<br /><br />- WhammerWhammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14185012561538390422016-11-30T15:09:01.567+00:002016-11-30T15:09:01.567+00:00https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-29...https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-29/bullish-druckenmiller-sees-growth-boosting-dollar-yields-to-6Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21470289170531852692016-11-30T14:27:33.938+00:002016-11-30T14:27:33.938+00:00RIP TLTRIP TLTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4923907123779673182016-11-30T11:21:13.036+00:002016-11-30T11:21:13.036+00:00I enjoyed the link Nico. He as some interesting id...I enjoyed the link Nico. He as some interesting ideas and I certainly agree with his views on the expectations in markets vis a vis the eventual realities of policy impact. One to fight at your peril.<br />Meanwhile , I am finding amusement watching Carney and Draghi swap verbal 'punches' on the EU/UK negotiations. Does anyone still believe that central bankers are apolitical ? I think they should go policy duels at dusk and let the one who can still pronounce 'ineffectual' be the winner.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74990129596986780242016-11-30T09:28:33.513+00:002016-11-30T09:28:33.513+00:00http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon-theory/amer...http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon-theory/american-hustle/Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17314990917125127052016-11-30T09:13:55.779+00:002016-11-30T09:13:55.779+00:00Re Euro swap spreads. The latest move accelerated ...Re Euro swap spreads. The latest move accelerated 17/11 - it just so happens the day before European MMR was green lighted. While execution and timeline still have to be clarified q4 2018, q1 2019 are right where it should kick in. DUZ6 ASW is a conveneint maturity. Surprised how little airtime EUR MMR is getting after all the broo-haha over the US version this year which probably had a 15/20bp effect on rising libor into Oct 14thAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com