tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post476370597837927789..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Equities: “Bi-Winning” but for how long?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82702682684758226562011-03-16T19:29:04.611+00:002011-03-16T19:29:04.611+00:00"Sorry, Jim*, you are definitely going to be ..."Sorry, Jim*, you are definitely going to be hearing that tightening in EM will drive commodities lower. For the time being, and until it stops working, selling the rips in China and buying the dips in the US, feels like the easiest way to make money in this choppy period.<br /><br />* (Hmm, Jim, fan of Emerging Markups, are you perhaps a famous Man Utd fan? Enjoy the game Sunday?)"<br /><br />Certainly don't disagree that if you're short term you should make money when you can but my point is the trade will not last post 1Q11; and the trade has been a poor one at best recently...Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10625654273620334698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86052521038180752422011-03-10T18:26:13.101+00:002011-03-10T18:26:13.101+00:00Thanks Nemo, that makes it more clear and I can do...Thanks Nemo, that makes it more clear and I can do some further digging via USGS. I appreciate the further info.mwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3937571278507500902011-03-10T12:15:27.371+00:002011-03-10T12:15:27.371+00:00Anonym at 11:22.
"whether the deflation trad...Anonym at 11:22.<br /><br />"whether the deflation trade will be spun differently? This time."<br /><br />Interesting. Seems to me the Irish deflation isn't being accompanied by particularly low bond yields. I guess whether you want the bonds or not depends on whether you think you'll be paid back. Ok, so they're not in control of their own currency. U.S. deflation accompanied by high bond yields is not likely to be a stable state of affairs. But that it couldn't happen at least temporarily?Mark Thymenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77686057374834372772011-03-10T11:22:17.401+00:002011-03-10T11:22:17.401+00:00Well well, as we be sure you all know, team Pimco ...Well well, as we be sure you all know, team Pimco appears to have come to the conclusion that the Ts (besides TMMs Platinum, Palladium, metals in general, EMs, euro but not lithium) are toast too… Which makes us wonder, whether the deflation trade will be spun differently? <br /><br />This time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77219833553187530512011-03-09T23:14:57.695+00:002011-03-09T23:14:57.695+00:00Ok so on lead demand about 97% in DM is recycled (...Ok so on lead demand about 97% in DM is recycled (Euro, and US) so when I build a lead model I look at where marginal demand for mine production is- and that's basically all e-bikes and starter, lighting and ignition batteries for autos. Numbers do vary (there's nothing good and definitive out there) but we are looking at 35-45% of marginal mine demand. Hope it helps. Eurozone and US data is good (check USGS) but other data is a serious hassle.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56498450466795514842011-03-09T22:09:42.044+00:002011-03-09T22:09:42.044+00:00http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/11071592/
Not eve...http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/11071592/<br /><br />Not everyone thinks copper is going up forever, or that every Chinese pig farmer is building a monorail.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84395714155861921272011-03-09T21:13:45.043+00:002011-03-09T21:13:45.043+00:00RBNZ did the 50 bps today, as forecast here a few ...RBNZ did the 50 bps today, as forecast here a few days ago. Long NZD/AUD from here?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68082146992974318232011-03-09T20:58:10.206+00:002011-03-09T20:58:10.206+00:00MW, credit due to Nemo on that one. It was posted ...MW, credit due to Nemo on that one. It was posted under my name for administrative convenience. I'll leave any questions e-bike and lead to him. <br /><br />As for whether it is positive for AUD or not, there have been many things that "should" have been bearish for AUD and its still only just below its lows. <br /><br /><br />sorry Jim, it is a debate that will roll on no matter how tired we are.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39555663857819188942011-03-09T18:45:59.193+00:002011-03-09T18:45:59.193+00:00Thanks Polemic, another great post.
I have one que...Thanks Polemic, another great post.<br />I have one question though, from what I remember China's e-bike driven lead demand acccounts for about 20% of the country's total lead consumption, p.a. Where is the 45% of aggregate demand number coming from?mwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60795438977230863542011-03-09T16:54:27.077+00:002011-03-09T16:54:27.077+00:00Sorry, Jim*, you are definitely going to be hearin...Sorry, Jim*, you are definitely going to be hearing that tightening in EM will drive commodities lower. For the time being, and until it stops working, selling the rips in China and buying the dips in the US, feels like the easiest way to make money in this choppy period.<br /><br />* (Hmm, Jim, fan of Emerging Markups, are you perhaps a famous Man Utd fan? Enjoy the game Sunday?)Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79275148222722223612011-03-09T15:58:14.600+00:002011-03-09T15:58:14.600+00:00I'm tired of hearing that tightening in EM wil...I'm tired of hearing that tightening in EM will drive commodities lower. The position of EM's given just about every fundamental measure suggests tightening is possible and that they are in a lot better shape than the US given the complete mess it's made of it's balance sheet. If we want to debate where commodity prices go it needs to involve an analysis of the Fed balance sheet...Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10625654273620334698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11798777367938577592011-03-09T13:01:40.904+00:002011-03-09T13:01:40.904+00:001255 GMT [Dow Jones] U.K. January trade data look ...1255 GMT [Dow Jones] U.K. January trade data look good, but they were distorted by the weather, says Alen Mattich in Wednesday's Money Talks column. The longer-term trend remains grim, argues Mattich. Manufacturing is too small a part of the economy for sterling's 25% devaluation in 2007 to make much difference, he says. Either the U.K. needs another big devaluation or consumption needs to be crushed in order to get rid of the deficit, Mattich says. (alen.mattich@dowjones.com)FXnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80482605446228071142011-03-09T11:56:23.031+00:002011-03-09T11:56:23.031+00:00very well thought out at a number of levels ... no...very well thought out at a number of levels ... none of which seems very positive for AUD ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91134323800710902872011-03-09T10:42:08.546+00:002011-03-09T10:42:08.546+00:00Glad to see TMM is also long bi-winning jokesGlad to see TMM is also long bi-winning jokesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com