tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4741664441528601001..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Dude - where's my current account surplus?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31780995012067028532012-04-26T22:48:23.864+01:002012-04-26T22:48:23.864+01:00Spain downgraded by S&P. Yawn.... didn't s...Spain downgraded by S&P. Yawn.... didn't see that one coming..... I didn't expect a kind of Spanish Inquisition.<br /><br />Here are the ratings agencies in action:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tym0MObFpTI" rel="nofollow"> Spanish Inquisition </a><br /><br />"Our chief weapons are... surprise...."Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74420243680772897382012-04-26T18:37:21.620+01:002012-04-26T18:37:21.620+01:00forget cad. what about eur/czk?
following the rec...forget cad. what about eur/czk?<br /><br />following the recent industrial production disaster in germany czk looks ripe for a rip-off. or?Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25517249325258673422012-04-25T17:25:23.721+01:002012-04-25T17:25:23.721+01:00I'm a year out of date, but we're talking ...I'm a year out of date, but we're talking 1920's 1200 sq ft, semi-detached, 200 sq ft of yard. Worse, whatever charm it might have had - the angel stone 'brick' facing, interior drywall repartitioning, etc. took care of that. Has to be seen to be believed.<br /><br />So, 700K CADCharles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42237859219630938002012-04-25T14:08:37.663+01:002012-04-25T14:08:37.663+01:00$600K CAD or pounds? you cant buy much with 600 CA...$600K CAD or pounds? you cant buy much with 600 CAD in Toronto proper, outside the city you probably could.<br /><br />Asian buyers pushing up prices in North York to over $1M for 1960's 1700 sq foot bungalow.. b/c of the school district!<br /><br />http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/this-toronto-bungalow-sold-for-421800-over-asking-yes-really/article2362078/<br /><br />Toronto is starting to look a lot like vancouver, NYC, moscow, london etcabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48060359670006772872012-04-25T13:23:27.701+01:002012-04-25T13:23:27.701+01:00Abee - was back in TO for a while in October. Smel...Abee - was back in TO for a while in October. Smelled distinctly, God forbid, of 1987 - restaurant reservations required mid-week, three BR Portuguized semis for 600 grand. But the bourgeoisie seemed to be enjoying itself.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41262631350213885002012-04-25T13:07:00.045+01:002012-04-25T13:07:00.045+01:00Toronto aka T.Dot, has a nice housing bubble in ad...Toronto aka T.Dot, has a nice housing bubble in addition to vancouver. apparently most cranes in the world in any city there now. <br /><br />Few other interesting stats:<br />Residential investment, '11 at 6% of GDP vs US bubble top of 6.3%<br />Homeownership rate at 70% (higher than US bubble peak)<br />CMHC (canada crown corp) gurantees most mortgages. Not much bank or subprime lending that isnt<br />Canadian renew mortgages every 5 years (using a 30-40 years term), so rising rates are the biggest risk<br /><br />IMHO Canada RE is driven 50% by recent momentum/low rates<br />50% asian money<br /><br />Also Canada oil sands exports still ramping up,so explains why exports not running so high yetabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23160251295385506262012-04-25T12:40:50.142+01:002012-04-25T12:40:50.142+01:00'cpmppi said...
Anon @ 3.45pm,
Sorry? So beca...'cpmppi said...<br />Anon @ 3.45pm,<br /><br />Sorry? So because it has fallen 6% it continues to be a good short?'<br /><br />Well, it is if you have had the trade on from those levels, yes!<br /><br />And at the moment the trade makes a lot of sense. <br /><br />One central bank fighting a two speed economy, in which rate cuts are becoming a blunt tool due to contiuned currency strength and domestic banks not passing on rate cuts. <br /><br />The other fighting a potential credit and housing bubble with rates far too low than where they should be.<br /><br />Just on a pure yield momentum play over the medium term this cross should be closer to 0.90. <br /><br />If the FOMC keep the lid on more accomodation tonight this should also strengthen the case for continued CAD strength...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67946679527335399492012-04-25T10:16:23.512+01:002012-04-25T10:16:23.512+01:00Guys, guys, guys. You're totally missing the p...Guys, guys, guys. You're totally missing the picture here! Now that the Canadian glow in the dark quarter with a dinosaur motive has hit the markets, the whole world is gonna wanna get their hands on 'em. Things are going to change, drastically! I've been saving up for seconds already. My quick estimation tells me that this is going to move markets. <br /><br />http://moneyland.time.com/2012/04/10/canada-to-introduce-glow-in-the-dark-quarter/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58099354028199574582012-04-25T03:23:28.852+01:002012-04-25T03:23:28.852+01:00Canada is too big to generalize a housing bubble. ...Canada is too big to generalize a housing bubble. Too many different economies across 10 different provinces. What might be true in Vancouver, thanks to Asian investment is not at all a reality in the rest of the country...check out the Maritimes for affordable housingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78684790777842588062012-04-24T21:36:43.287+01:002012-04-24T21:36:43.287+01:00a bit off topic, but AAPL is a machine. regardless...a bit off topic, but AAPL is a machine. regardless of what price does tom, this company is just killing it. Wow!abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12139245420530489302012-04-24T21:12:42.550+01:002012-04-24T21:12:42.550+01:00Re: Uk property. God forbid that one should take...Re: Uk property. God forbid that one should take one single transaction as representing a market but this is settled bungalow estate in Worthing and this is the latest and best offer on a 3-bed spick and span bungalow that only last summer was selling for £320,00. The bungalow of the seller in question as been on the market since last November. His best offer this week is £260,000. If that is not a market in retreat I don't know what is. Perhaps something is just starting to happen?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69979345588371115112012-04-24T20:08:13.763+01:002012-04-24T20:08:13.763+01:00Ctrl-F gas *not found*
Dunno if it's big enou...Ctrl-F gas *not found*<br /><br />Dunno if it's big enough to explain the current account dynamics of the Great White North but at the very least it needs to be ruled out, no?Bob Dobalinahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07252594548091291101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91990149803980188852012-04-24T20:01:54.378+01:002012-04-24T20:01:54.378+01:00Nice tag Isaac !Nice tag Isaac !Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12355504587385653822012-04-24T19:24:06.151+01:002012-04-24T19:24:06.151+01:00AAPL is falling.AAPL is falling.Isaac Newtonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64537749099110037142012-04-24T19:21:54.795+01:002012-04-24T19:21:54.795+01:00Thanks to Señor Butler for his local knowledge and...Thanks to Señor Butler for his local knowledge and this is probably what Charles is referring to. A nice explanation of why Spain probably isn't detaching from the mainland, at least not in 2012:<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970301/funding-spain-and-the-year-of-the-negative-feedback-loop/" rel="nofollow"> Funding Spain </a><br /><br />As Charles points out, this is supported by actual data and some grade school arithmetic, showing that, you know, Spain might actually have enough money to support their own debt. It turns out that analysis of sovereign debt is, you know, facilitated a bit by actually looking at how much debt is being issued. <br /><br />Now when you look at Italy, on the other hand, it's decidedly more dodgy....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20080611815197207582012-04-24T17:42:25.831+01:002012-04-24T17:42:25.831+01:00Started yesterday (revelation being prohibited on ...Started yesterday (revelation being prohibited on all days that are not Monday), LB, when it was decided that the banks had enough to save the kingdom, but not the republic.<br /><br />Arithmetic - a skill with a future.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59641028939108916942012-04-24T17:17:55.383+01:002012-04-24T17:17:55.383+01:00@4:14pm
A high price to rent ratio is indicative ...@4:14pm<br /><br />A high price to rent ratio is indicative of expected capital gains....<br /><br />Why else do you think a Chelsea flat yields 2% and a Dalston flat yields 8%<br /><br />www.1percentblog.comredruthttp://www.1percentblog.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63069064227203291192012-04-24T17:03:42.912+01:002012-04-24T17:03:42.912+01:00Going back to Europe for a second, a nice entertai...Going back to Europe for a second, a nice entertaining fairy tale on the pink blog today. It is Italy bashing day this time.<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/24/972461/once-upon-a-time-in-italian-banking/" rel="nofollow"> Once Upon a Time </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5771738019336693062012-04-24T16:57:35.579+01:002012-04-24T16:57:35.579+01:00Agree with the post, very well written.
It comes...Agree with the post, very well written. <br /><br />It comes down to demand for copper and coal (AUD to China) versus oil and lumber (CAD to US). With the US awash in crude and clearly making much better progress towards increasing domestic energy production and reducing consumption than China, it's not looking all that rosy for our friends in the Great White North.<br /><br />Both countries have gigantic housing bubbles, btw, based on affordability metrics and household formation versus construction stats. As noted, the banks and the governments participated fully and will reap the usual harvest. Frozen housing market, MBS crises, foreclosures, bailouts, printing and government debt problems. We can all write the script for this by now. Avoid these banks.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66895879290138739402012-04-24T16:43:48.629+01:002012-04-24T16:43:48.629+01:00There are other reasons to be long AUDCAD.. since ...There are other reasons to be long AUDCAD.. since CAD rates are effectively zero, it has as much carry as AUDJPY/AUDUSD but is far less volatile, as AUD/CAD are both risk on. <br /><br />There are other plays in it as well... iron ore/coal vs high cost oil, and Chinese growth vs USLykean Capitalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06864198029005703708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81718850978761619642012-04-24T16:14:32.071+01:002012-04-24T16:14:32.071+01:00and to add further research to the argument: http:...and to add further research to the argument: http://www.economist.com/node/21551486<br />the price-to-rent ratio suggests Canada's house prices are 76% overvalued - the highest one in the table.<br />maybe the reason Carney has been sounding hawkish and rate hikes are on the horizon?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11737369979939258462012-04-24T16:04:12.161+01:002012-04-24T16:04:12.161+01:00Anon @ 3.41pm,
Thanks - well spotted! I've fi...Anon @ 3.41pm,<br /><br />Thanks - well spotted! I've fixed this now.cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84546322687227672902012-04-24T16:00:38.556+01:002012-04-24T16:00:38.556+01:00Anon @ 3.45pm from Vancouver,
Thanks. So it does ...Anon @ 3.45pm from Vancouver,<br /><br />Thanks. So it does look as though there has not only been an investment boom but also a consumption one. And interesting comment about Asian residents - perhaps this relates to the Current Transfers deficit too...cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68532920812234147382012-04-24T15:55:47.763+01:002012-04-24T15:55:47.763+01:00Anon @ 3.45pm,
Sorry? So because it has fallen 6%...Anon @ 3.45pm,<br /><br />Sorry? So because it has fallen 6% it continues to be a good short?cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46688866651305166362012-04-24T15:54:07.885+01:002012-04-24T15:54:07.885+01:00GlobalMacroTrading,
Thanks. Yes, I think that may...GlobalMacroTrading,<br /><br />Thanks. Yes, I think that may be what eventually happens, but given China has a good deal more infrastructure to build over the coming decade (not to mention what appears to be currency diversification in the form of stockpiling itself), it may take a very long time for this ToT fall to occur.<br /><br />So I agree - too early to play the the AUD/CAD short.cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.com