tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4585004006832313033..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Carney The Cable GuyMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91725003751544997382017-03-17T22:26:37.587+00:002017-03-17T22:26:37.587+00:00I have a reply:
http://www.globalmacroblogspot.co...I have a reply:<br /><br />http://www.globalmacroblogspot.com/2017/03/17/keep-pounding-on-sterling/William Buelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17365738765705800938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44408058404715974862017-03-09T19:54:17.619+00:002017-03-09T19:54:17.619+00:00abee, I sold 1/2 of CAT position today. Holding th...abee, I sold 1/2 of CAT position today. Holding the other half to scale out at 87 and 84 (gap fill) and moved the stop to breakeven.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23822809769044719672017-03-09T19:30:49.593+00:002017-03-09T19:30:49.593+00:00IPA you getting out of CAT before the Nov gap? com...IPA you getting out of CAT before the Nov gap? common... but good reminder on XLE. Will be watching that. Also looking at a few individual names in the STACK play which are getting killed. Nothing wrong with the rocks there...<br /><br />LB, some muni and preferred are getting hammered the past few days. Also my high conviction MLPs, though not so surprising given the oil move<br /><br />As for HY, while its a nice move on the ETFs CDS spreads arent doing that much. Though if R2K breaks 1350 maybe equity vol moves higher too and we see a real move lower. I will probably be a buyer on first sign of exhaustion in that case. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41795949370680843002017-03-09T19:01:07.000+00:002017-03-09T19:01:07.000+00:00Celeriac1972, lol, take credit for everything good...Celeriac1972, lol, take credit for everything good since election and blame the rest on predecessors. Never mind the cyclical trends, long-term business plans, and simple every day decisions which have absolutely nothing to do with who is occupying the Oval Office.<br /><br />Beginning to think nat gas has bottomed and it's time to start looking to buy the pullback. Want to try and catch a "cradle trade" on daily (pullback to 8/21 ema/sma cross). Want to grab May contract (because I don't want to roll often) at around 2.92-94-ish and hold on for dear life. I think it will explode (pun) higher. Would address rolling May when confronted with it.<br /><br />Furthermore, want to grab UNG far-dated call spreads around the same time @ around 6.90-7.00-ish. UNG is not perfect (nothing is in life), hence using far-dated call spreads should help some of the inevitable erosion of underlying due to rolls. Need to use UNG because of the long haul trade structure I would be putting on. Again, looking for nat gas to rip higher over the next 3-6 months.<br /><br />Simultaneous nat gas and crude oil bottom should help XOP and OIH. Want to grab both through call spread leaps. Not there yet!!! Wait for XLE bottom to confirm first. Looking for OIH and XOP to steamroll the shorts and scream higher in the next 6-9 months.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38710824832238474822017-03-09T18:19:26.999+00:002017-03-09T18:19:26.999+00:00How long before Trump tweets about "driving d...How long before Trump tweets about "driving down the cost of gasoline for make benefit glorious drivers of America"..?Celeriac1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15149056185371253333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82147901444944808202017-03-09T16:30:04.448+00:002017-03-09T16:30:04.448+00:00Out 1/2 CAT short. Stop to b/e. Last two scaleouts...Out 1/2 CAT short. Stop to b/e. Last two scaleouts 87 & 84. How long before Trump tweets about CAT? LOLIPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67682866658314360992017-03-09T16:19:05.525+00:002017-03-09T16:19:05.525+00:00Really taking a bite out of the turd sandwich this...Really taking a bite out of the turd sandwich this month. Getting run-over in a couple things. In macro space, NOK. Added again today post-ECB. Way mis-priced on my model. Out of my USDTRY forwards, taking a small hit. Still exposed through KO options there. At least EURGBP goes the right way. Again, the fact the pound could sell off on last week's negative data suggests to me it isn't "all in the price."<br /><br />Separately on the UK, I thought the realvision interview with Melken was interesting. In it, he recommended midcurve payer spreads on GBP 15Y15Y. I've priced some up. Some interesting payoffs. Anyone have views on this? Some cons to the trade ... 1) Melken cites the 3.5% inflation pricing on that part of the curve, but I think that's driven by uneconomic regulation-driven pension linker demand, so in constructing some structural rate, I think 2% is maybe more appropriate. There's also a CPI-RPI differential to account for. 2) His catalyst is end to QE in the UK and the arguments he makes I think are good. However, there's still 20-30b of reinvestment per year plus Hammond's budget sees a step-down in issuance in the coming fiscal year by about 30b. So not quite the dramatic cliff in demand for the long-end. 3) Economic data is probably going to suck going forward as consumer real income gets squeezed, so is that a good environment for curve steepening?<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36107516315640326442017-03-09T14:11:09.778+00:002017-03-09T14:11:09.778+00:00Leftback, I think crude gets support at mid BB on ...Leftback, I think crude gets support at mid BB on monthly (in mid $40s) and goes higher still. Just needed a reset. Totally agree, was a crowded trade here. XLE will lead and bounce before crude does. I'll play XLE, looks much cleaner. Just follow May-June 2010 scenario, imo.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9824868738059699702017-03-09T13:52:57.567+00:002017-03-09T13:52:57.567+00:00The recent move in high yield makes sense now that...The recent move in high yield makes sense now that we see crude specs deleveraging rapidly. It's possible the oil market is now finally returning to fundamentals of supply and demand after a period of intense and unbalanced speculation (a hint to those who don't get how this works: at tops, the longs are more numerous and, critically, more highly leveraged than the shorts).<br /><br />The high yield market has been an accident waiting to happen for months as crude oil prices have hovered in a gravity-defying vacuum; eventually the resulting repricing of risk in HY and a shift to lower inflation expectations (crude oil is a major input to PPI) should put a renewed bid into Treasury bonds.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67360179997760610182017-03-09T12:29:41.337+00:002017-03-09T12:29:41.337+00:00Corporate Credit Markets:
https://www.seeitmarket...Corporate Credit Markets:<br /><br />https://www.seeitmarket.com/corporate-credit-markets-party-like-its-2017-bonds-investing-16651/<br /><br />Any questions? Twitter: @FZucchiJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25719692489602676852017-03-09T06:26:08.611+00:002017-03-09T06:26:08.611+00:00Out 1/2 of my copper short, stop goes to b/e. LME ...Out 1/2 of my copper short, stop goes to b/e. LME stocks now up 33% since Fri. WTF? Crude puking did not help copper either. I'll take it, sweet revenge. Last two scaleouts 2.54 and 2.50IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14105103477909431732017-03-08T23:07:53.478+00:002017-03-08T23:07:53.478+00:00Busy with micro bets the past days.
Narrative Fed...Busy with micro bets the past days.<br /><br />Narrative Fed is on hiking path, for real, gaining more traction. I'd like to see wage inflation before buying that, especially with 2.6 hikes already priced this year. What's the upside from here, another 1.4 hikes? Doesn't seem worth it. End-18 OIS basically prices Fed at "neutral" 0% real if inflation gets just under 2%. Maybe I haven't seen enough good times, as Tepper today suggested of us 40-ish traders, but I at least want to see some discernible trend higher in wage inflation (and/or productivity growth) before I bet on higher than 2% Fed funds. Interesting, as LB points out, that USDJPY still isn't confirming this move. Yet.<br /><br />Speaking of Tepper, I thought he made a great argument on BAT today (which applies to "reciprocal tax" or some similar thing). Specifically, if you spread it over some years (and Ryan has expressed openness to that), USD will probably front-load appreciation somewhat, so it will actually result in cheaper prices for imports. NOT the retail apocalypse I was arguing previously.<br /><br />Re-built my position in -EURNOK Monday and today.<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18102013799972456482017-03-08T20:51:13.699+00:002017-03-08T20:51:13.699+00:00Top is a process. Essentially a gap fill here for ...Top is a process. Essentially a gap fill here for SPX and almost there for DJI (going back to the Trump Congress address). I imagine dip buyers should be coming in somewhere here on equities. Would be interesting if we get a fib retracement and then break today's low on volume sometimes next week. That would probably be a top of some sort. Let's see how this unfolds.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43982250964072392072017-03-08T19:42:34.784+00:002017-03-08T19:42:34.784+00:00GTC order to buy XLE @ 68, 67, 66.
GTC order to bu...GTC order to buy XLE @ 68, 67, 66.<br />GTC order to buy TLT @ 116, 115.5, 115.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13320528298915409162017-03-08T19:14:25.935+00:002017-03-08T19:14:25.935+00:00Crude move is interesting. Hard to distinguish any...Crude move is interesting. Hard to distinguish any particular trigger for a fall of thus magnitude.<br /><br />Will equities continue to ignore it?<br />Celeriac1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15149056185371253333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21831422836614492742017-03-08T19:02:21.500+00:002017-03-08T19:02:21.500+00:00And Crude is crashing. Bye bye inflation drivers. ...And Crude is crashing. Bye bye inflation drivers. … buy TLT, sell TIP ahead of Friday's (cough) reflationary shocker….?,Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57282756927042470602017-03-08T18:52:35.049+00:002017-03-08T18:52:35.049+00:00You want data on Manhattan? It is all here:
http:...You want data on Manhattan? It is all here:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/retail-vacancies-soar-manhattan-proving-big-apple-not-immune-retail-rout<br /><br />Btw, the 10y auction was red hot:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-08/short-squeeze-drives-blockbuster-10y-auction-directs-surge<br /><br />BOND is still alive and kicking.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13423389872215862842017-03-08T17:58:38.828+00:002017-03-08T17:58:38.828+00:00abee
still short, i added the day March hike beca...abee<br /><br />still short, i added the day March hike became a reality. It is a horribly big position now (31m notional), the theta will be paid in shortened life expectancy<br /><br />i have crash bids above 2030 Trump election reaction low just in case Pyongyang screws san FranciscoNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39017826686004542172017-03-08T17:05:19.735+00:002017-03-08T17:05:19.735+00:00abee, retail REITs: KIM, KRGabee, retail REITs: KIM, KRGIPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78645844203948490582017-03-08T15:24:23.485+00:002017-03-08T15:24:23.485+00:00Btw if you want something to short, the IYR seems ...Btw if you want something to short, the IYR seems to fit the bill, H&S in place, wait until it breaks support….Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15186334975912032652017-03-08T14:51:19.358+00:002017-03-08T14:51:19.358+00:00Today's ADP number was an eye-rolling head-sha...Today's ADP number was an eye-rolling head-shaking 5-sigma surprise…. Perhaps not such a massive shock, given the mild winter and US businesses moving past the period of electoral uncertainty. It is interesting, btw, to note that we see small retail businesses failing all over NYC at the moment, but mostly in Manhattan, perhaps part of a more general "retail and restaurant recession" in the US. It is certainly a very strange economy out there, miles driven and gasoline use are down too.<br /><br />There was one of these massive beats in Spring 2006 as well, and a monster number in Spring 2011. None of those "employment surges" lasted. At the risk of stating the obvious, the "real" data are out on Friday, and these days the numbers to watch are "hours worked" and "hourly wages", more so than the headline number, which is baked in the cake. As MM has suggested, it is the adjustments to the dot plot that are in play between now and the FOMC meeting.<br /><br />Danny Blanchflower was on BBG this morning, opining that it would only take "one bad data point" to "bring this whole thing down". Perhaps FX traders agree, and this is why USDJPY is having such difficulty mounting an assault on the 115 level.<br /><br />Let's see if the bond markets pivot around the 10y and 30y auctions, as they so often do…. we suggest you buy the dip!Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87850767929263374182017-03-08T13:43:50.839+00:002017-03-08T13:43:50.839+00:00IPA, i head you on Feb LB's SSS trends, hence ...IPA, i head you on Feb LB's SSS trends, hence why I said its not for me yet. yes mall traffic is taking a beating, and probably will for the next few months, maybe 2 years, I dunno. But class A malls I think will come out OK, along with destination stores, like Victoria Secret which has had industry leading comps for many years. Anyway, it will just trade on SSS trend for next little while. I'm looking at thier long bonds to jump in, hopefully if we get to ~8.5% yield / mid 80's price ..<br /><br />But I am thinking about AZO/ORLY short here... you have any good retail REIT's to short? I think that might be a good play as well with rates rising<br /><br />I agree with your retail thesis, there is pain. my point is just that XRT, if you look at the constituents, about 1/3 are already in the dog house. Then there are about 1/3 that have done really well over the past 12M. <br /><br />Nico you still short spoo's? adding? trimming? <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37022331658686009472017-03-08T13:10:08.756+00:002017-03-08T13:10:08.756+00:00So as usual the 'thinktank' as no agenda ,...So as usual the 'thinktank' as no agenda ,why should we not be surprised. Let's face it 'thinktank' is rapidly becoming one of the most abused terms in politics. New definition of it appears to be any gathering of several people or more who seek to tell each other what they wish to hear. As a source of objective analytical discourse they may rank right up there with the taproom of your local pub. Albeit not as much fun.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76093539669713974852017-03-08T12:01:59.369+00:002017-03-08T12:01:59.369+00:00From the same Wikipedia article:
The Gatestone In...From the same Wikipedia article:<br /><br />The Gatestone Institute has been accused of being islamophobic, and of promoting falsehoods and paranoia.[6][7][8][9] J. Dana Stuster, writing in The Hill, says Gatestone is fear-mongering when it warns of a “civilization jihad” consisting of a “Muslim invasion” of “illegal migrants” that will bring crime and exhaust the European welfare system.[9] Carol Matlack, professor of sociology at the University of Bath, and Tom Mills, lecturer in sociology at Aston University, single out Soeren Kern's articles on Muslim no-go zones in Europe as examples of misinformation and Islamophobia.[7][8]<br /><br />In a 2012 article in the progressive weekly The Nation, Max Blumenthal criticized The Gatestone Institute’s founding president Nina Rosenwald for raising money for politician Geert Wilders, think tank Center for Security Policy, and writer Daniel Pipes. In this article he quoted Center for American Progress' report which claims that Rosenwald and her family have donated more than $2.8 million since 2000 to “organisations that fan the flames of Islamophobia”.[6]<br /><br />Muslim members of Gatestone Institute defended Nina Rosenwald, from criticism by CAIR that she donated to “groups that exist to make people fear and hate Islam”. Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, founder and president of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, said, "It goes without saying, but to those who may not know Nina, and having known her now for many years, it is clear to me that she has the highest respect for Muslims who love their faith, love God, and take seriously our Islamic responsibility to defeat the global jihad and its Islamist inspiration." In response to anti-Muslim allegations made by the Council on American–Islamic Relations toward Rosenwald, writer and film maker Raheel Raza said, "If Muslims guided by CAIR could take the time to read and reflect on efforts of people like Nina, they would broaden their horizons and gain a lot of insights into the betterment of Muslims."Celeriac1972https://www.blogger.com/profile/15149056185371253333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76489057326844513792017-03-08T11:10:13.241+00:002017-03-08T11:10:13.241+00:00From Wikipedia:
"The Gatestone Institute, fo...From Wikipedia:<br /><br />"The Gatestone Institute, formerly Stonegate Institute and Hudson New York, is a nonpartisan, right-wing not-for-profit international policy council and think tank based in New York City with a specialization in strategy and defense issues."<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gatestone_InstituteEddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18011114950206155472noreply@blogger.com