tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4575859005908586034..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Wheeler asks the questions: will Yellen answer?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57535749313661437532016-08-27T17:13:09.868+01:002016-08-27T17:13:09.868+01:00
Are you in need of a loan? Do you want to pay off...<br />Are you in need of a loan? Do you want to pay off your bills? Do you want to be financially stable? All you have to do is to contact us for more information on how to get started and get the loan you desire. This offer is open to all that will be able to repay back in due time. Note-that repayment time frame is negotiable and at interest rate of 3% just email us Abdallah.afandi@financier.comfunloanfirmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06814665300514883570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1608338331822565002016-08-24T05:20:05.772+01:002016-08-24T05:20:05.772+01:00@LB: after a summer of working my way out of sever...@LB: after a summer of working my way out of several long VIX forays with only a few minor bruises, I'd say it will go on longer than many of us are willing/able to keep rolling forward. It's wonderfully obvious that volatility will come roaring back some day, but cheaper to buy lottery tickets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16330526276972481782016-08-24T00:18:43.583+01:002016-08-24T00:18:43.583+01:00With realized volatility currently at 20 year lows...With realized volatility currently at 20 year lows, the probability is rising that "this" will not go on "forever".Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68290194011552890232016-08-23T23:47:31.358+01:002016-08-23T23:47:31.358+01:00Just wondering what the big picture is right now: ...Just wondering what the big picture is right now: are equity indices really related to anything else anymore other than how much CBs can or can not further compress yields? Not trying to make predictions but just questioning (if that's the case) if the juice on that, and generally the long term bull market is running out, like the spring is really getting really loaded now and can't hold it down forever. Are equities really much else than picking up pennies before the steamroller looking at 2008-2016 context and considering past bull market lengths? Albeit of course there is the case that this one is unprecedented and different because CB omnipotency and even the below average growth achieved has been achieved through unprecedentedly high debt growth so this could basically go on "forever"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78752951174673878862016-08-23T23:25:15.459+01:002016-08-23T23:25:15.459+01:00more on my darling bank
http://www.newyorker.com...more on my darling bank <br /><br />http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/08/29/deutsche-banks-10-billion-scandal?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethitsNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28876092718192956102016-08-23T21:42:50.852+01:002016-08-23T21:42:50.852+01:00@anon 9:13 - and whats the likelihood that an oil ...@anon 9:13 - and whats the likelihood that an oil producing nation that would have to rely on goldman, Morgan, and JP Morgan to execute its 40-50k lots sales would be able to keep this 'strategy' under wraps for more than 5 seconds?<br /><br />@Left your conviction on the fed action is interesting, and I must say quite contrarion - the problem is the game theory aspect of this - these clowns have zero balls in terms of wanting to surprise the (cough equities) markets, which tells me that yellen's speech on friday pretty much would need to serve as a de facto announcement of sorts - for her to be able to thread the needle between a gentle hint to prepare the patient without sending it into a schizophrenic rage seems difficult - said differently, the 'you were warned' idea only works if we assume these guys can actually take the consequences of a market surprise - lets just say I am not holding my breath, so count me in with the masses!<br /><br />JPY really does look like its at a do or die level I have to say - the divergence between JPY and risky assets is greater than I have seen in about two decades, and I have no idea which one is right. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81738058802232101762016-08-23T21:32:59.168+01:002016-08-23T21:32:59.168+01:00Yes, crude oil has always been one of the most cyn...Yes, crude oil has always been one of the most cynically and frequently manipulated markets and the recent action is no exception, someone big got caught long and then had to engineer a 2 week squeeze so they could get out closer to $50/bbl. Now watch as the news stories of "NIgerian incidents", "Iranian embargoes", "Canadian wildfires" and "OPEC production cuts" just disappear as the oil price resumes its inexorable drip drip drip lower.<br /><br />LB is at some point going to be an oil and energy company bull, but not until we see a real period of Price Discovery, and a consequent wave of minor bankruptcies, fire sales and mergers. There is a price for SDRL, RIG, CHK etc.. but it's not where they are currently trading, and for some of them (because of debt) it may be that they trade down to $0. We still own shares in TOT, BP, OMV, E, Gazprom, Lukoil, Repsol and the like. It's good to own a piece of the real economy, but we will not be adding until we see the fire sale prices return (and maybe dividends are reduced by the majors), perhaps as soon as this winter. A lot of punters have forgotten what can happen when the USD puts in a surge against an insipid economic backdrop. It may get nasty.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64674008959531184042016-08-23T21:13:39.491+01:002016-08-23T21:13:39.491+01:00I wish I was a middle-eastern oil producing nation...I wish I was a middle-eastern oil producing nation... I would mention excess supply and watch CL fall 8-10%, then buy every CL contract in existence, shortly after I would release a rumor that supply was diminishing. Once CL rallied 8-10% I would sell it all, and deny the rumor. <br /><br />The following week I would repeat it again, ad infinitum. I would then blame the USA for all my nations woes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38078530105010207302016-08-23T21:01:04.398+01:002016-08-23T21:01:04.398+01:00Short of GBP, not eurgbp, that wasShort of GBP, not eurgbp, that wasPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16870531624490558972016-08-23T21:00:13.567+01:002016-08-23T21:00:13.567+01:00Hand up to being another oil bull.
And a EURGBP b...Hand up to being another oil bull. <br />And a EURGBP bear. the world of five min Macro is short with large possies registering on short side but the corporate world is buying as exports boom and the Brexit surprise indicator of recent data is high. Well surprise toa lot of economists who seem to believe that they lead behaviour rather than follow it. First the pesky public refuse to go woe is me and carry on spending and then naughty industry won't listen and is nowhere near as gloomy as the economists told them to be. <br /><br />There are a lot of exceedingly arrogant economists out there who, like reporters, appear to think it is their mission to change beliefs rather than reporting or predicting them. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28793947899610824802016-08-23T19:57:54.597+01:002016-08-23T19:57:54.597+01:00Discount rate minutes show 8 regional banks suppor...Discount rate minutes show 8 regional banks supported a hike in the discount rate:<br /><br />https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/monetary20160823a1.pdf<br /><br />We are not founder members of the Hawks and Hikers Club (as regular readers will be aware) but we think the writing is on the wall after the recent Dudley and Fischer commentary. Students of Fedspeak may be wary but one would be advised to pay attention to this. <br /><br />Bravo, @Mr Beach, btw, we agree wholeheartedly with your assessment.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46122088397995894452016-08-23T19:43:49.174+01:002016-08-23T19:43:49.174+01:00At this point, I look at ZIRP/NIRP & QE as the...At this point, I look at ZIRP/NIRP & QE as the economic (and moral) equivalent of gross environmental pollution at a planetary scale. There is no reversion to 4.5% savings accounts. It can't happen anymore [cost of servicing debt, rising dollar, etc]. There is no reversion to markets pricing risk correctly with a perpetual CB thumb (or forearm) on the scale. <br /><br />Just like with our runaway climate change (google 'lighting siberian methane bubbles') where a bleak future awaits us, I see no possible escape from ZIRP/NIRP & QE. Sure we'll get some brief periods of semi-stability (similar to the difference between weather and climate) where things will kind of look normal, but the underlying issues will only get worse. Why?<br /><br />As with pollution, the problem is political. You cannot get elected anywhere telling people to reduce their carbon footprint and take the economic/lifestyle hit in the process. Similarly, you cannot get elected anywhere telling people that they must accept the consequences of their economic choices [see TARP, bailout of AIG, QE].<br /><br />So we steam onwards towards environmental and economic turbulence.<br />MrBeachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84104896700500968772016-08-23T19:25:08.978+01:002016-08-23T19:25:08.978+01:00Explodes - exploresExplodes - exploresAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53145346586342321102016-08-23T19:24:18.972+01:002016-08-23T19:24:18.972+01:00@LB if you or a/one else is keen on the demographi...@LB if you or a/one else is keen on the demographics theme read econimica.blogspot . He explodes it really wellAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3723758434172493482016-08-23T17:25:02.221+01:002016-08-23T17:25:02.221+01:00Yes, remember oil supply investments are long term...Yes, remember oil supply investments are long term. Cutting capex today you won't see any effect but you'll see it 5 years afterward as old supply declines, and you were supposed to then get replacement but umm... what about the capex that never was 5 years ago? Is there a single major that hasn't announced huge capex cuts running in the $10s billions? And these scales can be even in a single year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58995265731981705712016-08-23T17:01:42.620+01:002016-08-23T17:01:42.620+01:00Btw, where did the oil bulls go? - Ones here, with...<i>Btw, where did the oil bulls go?</i> - Ones here, with natty & lots of other commodities (ex PM's) I think lining up.<br /><br /><i> For example, they have no influence on the global oversupply of commodities, manufactured goods and capital goods...</i><br />I disagree with this. They may have no direct control, but they certainly have influence. As I think has been articulated here at least once or twice, the mechanism of business owners (sharesholders) demanding a higher portion of cashflow to generate yield is most certainly a reaction to low rates, which CB's do have direct control over. In industries where the tradeoff is between payouts and capex, capex %'s are declining, where its only a matter of time until production rates decline or at least fail to keep up with even the modest global growth demands. Hard to see that not resolving itself with higher prices.<br /><br />The widely held view that lower interest rates, by lowering hurdle rates, was supposed to create capex generation misses the fact that there are competing claims on corporate cashflows.<br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37382181355725146392016-08-23T16:52:49.843+01:002016-08-23T16:52:49.843+01:00@LB: Remember what selling CDS's did to AIG in...@LB: Remember what selling CDS's did to AIG in 2008? :)<br /><br />I'm confident though. I'm happy that when a wall of energy debt needs to be rolled over in 2017, the markets will be sanguine, and all will be well. I'm additionally confident that the lowest volatility in the S&P in 20 years, with VIX falling off the bottom of its chart heralds only positive news for the future of our stock markets.<br /><br />I'm particularly optimistic that when the Fed, BOJ and ECB have to unwind their asset purchases, FI and Equity markets will rejoice at the opportunity to buy these assets at bargain prices, thus setting off new bull markets everywhere.<br /><br />Finally I look forward to seeing the lowest ST interest rates in 300 years mean revert to 4.5%, and mortgage rates revert back to 10-15% pa, just as the boomer generation downsize their 4-5 bedroom homes into a market where millennials cannot afford starter homes. I'm confident that our re-capped banking sector can absorb these shocks, and all will be well.<br /><br />The future looks bright.<br />Armchair expertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46791977045513349262016-08-23T15:38:06.979+01:002016-08-23T15:38:06.979+01:00"This really needs to be nipped in the bud.&q..."This really needs to be nipped in the bud."<br /><br />You said it. I read that WSJ article, thought it was joke, remembered the world we lived in and just shrugged. Crazy times! <br /><br />It is getting silly! It can push higher of course, but we all know what happens when the air is as thin as is currently the case. Re the flatteners point. I suppose this is just the lower terminal rate that is playing in here. After all, if the ECB and the BOJ never move, and their liquidity pumps continue to send money into the U.S. bond market ... well, where does that get you then? <br /><br />The bottom line at the moment, though, is. Everything is going up together ... these periods rarely last for long. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89015209260161349822016-08-23T15:03:56.284+01:002016-08-23T15:03:56.284+01:00Agree with MM and LB's last comment.
I'm ...Agree with MM and LB's last comment.<br /><br />I'm worried about the complacency of just having savings. Having savings isn't the differentiator. It's having more savings than others.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68073859821803546062016-08-23T14:39:04.732+01:002016-08-23T14:39:04.732+01:00Some incredibly good stuff there from Wheels, espe...Some incredibly good stuff there from Wheels, especially this:.<br /><br />"Low inflation in some countries is linked to demographic change, especially in countries with a declining workforce and rapidly ageing population. Low inflation is also due to technological change around information flows and energy production, and to the global over-supply of commodities and manufactured goods"<br /><br />"Central banks only have limited control over tradables inflation. For example, they have no influence on the global oversupply of commodities, manufactured goods and capital goods, or on overseas inflation rates"<br /><br />It really is great to have someone articulate in that position who is able to state the obvious so clearly.<br /><br />On another note...<br /><br />We knew that vol selling had become insanely popular among 12yo and his friends ("because, like, Yellen, dude. So, like, you can never lose money") but now we hear that state pension funds have joined the throng??? This is really frightening stuff, especially when you think of the mollusk-like macroeconomic IQ levels of the individuals involved.<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/pensions-play-with-puts-for-protection-1471777202<br /><br />This really needs to be nipped in the bud. What could go wrong? How do you even model the VaR involved? These trades really are binary. You either pick up another penny every day or you get obliterated by a steamroller.<br /><br />Even Dame Janet must realize this is nuts. Imagine what would have (and probably did) happened to punters who were short vol ahead of the 1987 Crash? Even a 10% dump over two days and gosh darn it, some investment committees done got a lot of 'splainin to do.<br /><br />Btw, where did the oil bulls go? We called the post-expiration turn lower, almost to the minute :-) [OK, we exaggerate.]Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55708530649921304682016-08-23T13:59:49.421+01:002016-08-23T13:59:49.421+01:00https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/07/i...https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/07/inside-murky-world-high-frequency-tradingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63531816951307559732016-08-23T13:49:57.335+01:002016-08-23T13:49:57.335+01:00Checkmate said, "The 'way out' remain...Checkmate said, "The 'way out' remains fiscal policy." Fiscal policy is indeed the New Extraordinary policy, but it is not working against demographic challenges in Japan any better than monetary policy is. Nor has it worked to prevent China's slowdown. Meanwhile, here in the US, the last time we tried fiscal policy in 2009, it was hijacked by a partisan Congress and was a complete disaster, costing the Democrats their House majority. It might catch on at the Fed, but good luck convincing any Congressmen to vote for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14733492304850002602016-08-23T13:18:39.672+01:002016-08-23T13:18:39.672+01:00FWIIW the above for me meant switching out of over...FWIIW the above for me meant switching out of overextended govt bonds and other 'nil' value bonds across to select Retail and Engineeering/ Civil construction equities.<br />If that plays out well then I would imagine that by the time the Autumn budget statement comes out in November we might have got the bulk of the front running out of the way.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72257955195983248532016-08-23T13:12:50.982+01:002016-08-23T13:12:50.982+01:00"There is no way out."
I disagree. The &..."There is no way out."<br />I disagree. The 'way out' remains fiscal policy and in true zen like fashion if you wait long enough for the pendulum to swing then it will indeed swing. The tone of economic discourse is changing and I suspect an internet search on hits for fiscal policy might highlight that statement. The way I look at this is the central banks never ever resolve anything per se. They just buy time for politicans to switch the dialogue around. In this case that means from preaching austerity to recognition that when austerity equals a decrease in public spending then monetary policy is having to cartry twice the load . The UK will take the lead on this sooner than later if only because it's just been handed a ready made excuse to do so. When it works watch out for others to climb onboard.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22022525568539927922016-08-23T13:08:18.932+01:002016-08-23T13:08:18.932+01:00But..but..they told me that they have helicopters ...But..but..they told me that they have helicopters and lots more cool stuffs in their magic hat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com