tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4368210072868449347..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Long-end US Rates Continue to Outperform--Worth a Fade Here.Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64610402326016740962017-12-06T03:37:56.248+00:002017-12-06T03:37:56.248+00:00Spreads between RoW {bunds, JGBs and gilts} sbobet...Spreads between RoW {bunds, JGBs and gilts} <a href="https://sbobetgroup.com/" rel="nofollow">sbobet</a> debt on the one hand and US 10s on the other hand will continue to provide a bid at the long end <a href="https://999slot.com/maxbet.html" rel="nofollow">maxbet</a>. The greying of the US boomer population will provide another constant bid via pension funds <br /><a href="https://sbobetsss.com/" rel="nofollow">แทงบอลออนไลน์</a>. Even 401k 'ers might start to think about fixed income a bit more if/when the "market" ever suffers a reverse <a href="https://sbobetgoals.com/%E0%B9%81%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A5-sbobet.html" rel="nofollow">แทงบอล sbobet</a>.<br /><br /><br /><br />Leaf`https://www.blogger.com/profile/15436660791355311723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68763036072019326942017-12-05T20:01:48.023+00:002017-12-05T20:01:48.023+00:00R2k is lagging again today. Small caps lead bull m...R2k is lagging again today. Small caps lead bull markets and then quickly become small craps when the tide turns. Despite positive noises out of Japan, the Nikkei looking weak over the last 4-5 trading days. Maybe Kuroda is stealth tightening, after all?<br /><br />Long bond continues to trade constructively; yield curve continues to flatten. There are more than a few signs out there (Copper, China data, yen hanging in there when it shouldn't) that 2018 growth forecasts for the US and globally may prove to be optimistic.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53222988848104784782017-12-05T16:49:25.051+00:002017-12-05T16:49:25.051+00:00Not to add insult to injury but would point out th...Not to add insult to injury but would point out that last graph showing that US invoice has been rich vs FV invoice may be getting it wrong way about. The persistent curve flattening is directly fueling the steepening of the swap spread curve, and in particular driving 30y spreads the multi-year highs (headline 30y spread last at -19.50). With lofty equities and rates trading sideways, the beta of back-end spreads with respect to pension/insurance driven receiving needs has lessened, so back-end spread widening are increasingly coupled with USTs 5s30s curve flattening. As Martin hinted above, Treasury refunding likely helped this coupling. Decoupling would require, likely, a less complacent market with the accompanied bidding up of risk premia, perhaps as the Treasury eventually shifts its views on concentrating issuance in the front-end USTs curve.<br /><br />Nice 2y swap spread call a few posts back, hope you sold ahead of refunding.snipezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04339647560272747573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91603577691605264052017-12-04T12:28:33.177+00:002017-12-04T12:28:33.177+00:00@IPA...comment on the year on staying humble and c...@IPA...comment on the year on staying humble and climbing out of the dumpster....and re: the weather forecast, don't forget the run up in energy prices we've already seen! that will contribute to a greater divide between headline and core, which will become more problematic for the fed. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62566074128033707012017-12-02T13:21:57.195+00:002017-12-02T13:21:57.195+00:00@Shane, looking at 10-day weather forecast makes m...@Shane, looking at 10-day weather forecast makes me think that my bones will hurt really bad come second part of next week. Nothing gets traders to buy Nat Gas more than seeing national TV news anchors throwing snowballs at each other in the middle of Manhattan (trumps my caterpillars anecdote by far). A short-covering is how all previous spikes began but I think this time it'll be new longs who will take over and hold for much longer than just a few days. Huge resistance above to overcome between 3.15 and 3.30 but once we clear that it's smooth sailing all the way to 3.50 - a nice gift for us just in time for holidays.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3065216412628271782017-12-02T07:38:57.933+00:002017-12-02T07:38:57.933+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.aodlord13https://www.blogger.com/profile/09134897339515124640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55371224840017259082017-12-02T04:40:04.358+00:002017-12-02T04:40:04.358+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.aodlord13https://www.blogger.com/profile/09134897339515124640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13526093988035720432017-12-02T03:44:56.685+00:002017-12-02T03:44:56.685+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06272615068776935238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15063268084876756132017-12-02T03:17:08.267+00:002017-12-02T03:17:08.267+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.aodlord13https://www.blogger.com/profile/09134897339515124640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77313943240160280172017-12-01T21:07:28.517+00:002017-12-01T21:07:28.517+00:00Just want to point out that WTI is holding its own...Just want to point out that WTI is holding its own and is closing at a second highest level this whole yr. How important is this? Look at your momentum indicators hooking back up and then go back to price. It is King, it is ripping, broke out of a bull flag and it's back to the races in a steep 5-point wide uptrend channel. Take a quick measurement and it's not hard to see this baby blowing through $60 within the next two weeks, stops will do the trick. My ultimate target is $62. I will be a seller.<br /><br />A quick note of caution to those who think they are larger than the market. It does not care how many contracts you trade. It can take you out on the stretchers like you can't ever be prepared for. It teaches you to be humbled and never tell anyone (let alone those who do this for a living) that you in fact moved it. The market is unforgiving and sends you to the dumpster as many times as it takes for you to start hating to bathe in your own puke. As soon as you learn this, then it is time to throw big phrases only around your toilet, because you never move away from it for longer than an inch. Be safe and stay away from the moronity well you've been drinking from. It is so poisonous. <br /><br />Have a great weekend!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64316174574597686862017-12-01T20:41:22.847+00:002017-12-01T20:41:22.847+00:00Thanks leftback. Back in January I was sure volati...Thanks leftback. Back in January I was sure volatility was going to happen big this year."Early, wrong same thing" it has cost me. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70581634343242046162017-12-01T20:18:01.441+00:002017-12-01T20:18:01.441+00:00"can I ask the simple question, Is volatility..."can I ask the simple question, Is volatility back?"<br /><br />Too early to say, for sure, Skr, but one thing is clear; if a 2% drop in the Spoos can induce a VIX spike large enough to briefly wipe 10% off a vol selling ETF, just think what a 5% move over 2-3 days could do. This depends on reflexivity being a phenomenon that works both ways, not only on the way up, but also during a risky asset price move direction that we refer to [according to historical precedent] as: "DOWN". This market feels like it has one really big puke in it, and we expect to see it before the FOMC meeting. The interesting thing is how strong the underlying bid in vol has been this week. It's forming a base.<br /><br />It will be interesting to see how many of today's dip-buying 12y-o fighter pilots (that was a decent short-term trade, btw) would be willing to go home long spooz and short vol into a weekend of unknown news flow, or whether they were happier to sell during the lunchtime pool of shallow liquidity to unknowing and unidentified knobs and noobs in order to go home flat. We suspect the latter. <br /><br />Spreads for curious curve watchers: 2s10s 59 bps, 5s30s 64 bps; 10s30s 40 bps and 2s30s 99bps (TWOs-THIRTYs - yup, one percentage point!!!). Not only is the flattener not dead, it has returned with a vengeance. We hear a lot from the 12 y-o punters about how the bond market is wrong, the yield curve doesn't matter, etc. - but those of us with a long memory know what's coming.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45592636474713045692017-12-01T19:56:26.741+00:002017-12-01T19:56:26.741+00:00Whoresome !Whoresome !checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74970716843930701852017-12-01T19:40:33.844+00:002017-12-01T19:40:33.844+00:00Brad here (from Serenity Trading). We doubled down...Brad here (from Serenity Trading). We doubled down as per LB's transcript:<br /><i>"Double down, bro.<br />Snort another line, dude.<br />INCREASE THE LEVERAGE. <br />Turn it up to ELEVEN, Nigel!"</i><br />Obviously the dip was bought (Trading 101) and we have captured a massively leveraged +30pts in ES, +300YM in YM etc in several minutes. (Yep that 1900 ct order that pushed ES 11 ticks in one order was us). So biatches, we've now made a higher percentage return in one day than most macro funds have made for the year. Watch and learn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67270435431689521942017-12-01T19:18:22.484+00:002017-12-01T19:18:22.484+00:00Ok ,so it's the weekend and I can post one tha...Ok ,so it's the weekend and I can post one that I found funny today. In effect, a guy told me he's gone major US$ assets so that when Corbyn tanks the £ he will be hedged the political risk. I thought without commenting at all maybe Corbyn will be Trumped !<br />So educated friends where would you start trying to quantify whether Trump is a greater threat to your wealth than Corbyn? Actually , I am beginning to wonder if the so called political risk in emerging markets is a reality any longer in terms of exceeding that of our so called developed economies.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85900497086213863532017-12-01T19:01:30.247+00:002017-12-01T19:01:30.247+00:00True for you IPA - few have gone broke taking a pr...True for you IPA - few have gone broke taking a profit.<br />The excitement/putting the boot in, on here is telling. For those of us who like to keep our cocks tucked in our socks most of the time(or care not if the market is up or down) , can I ask the simple question, Is volatility back? <br />Hard to call a winner here guys if it is,as is evident this week. <br />Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74495235101187098392017-12-01T17:30:57.620+00:002017-12-01T17:30:57.620+00:00Those who took the NQ trade... While the channel i...Those who took the NQ trade... While the channel is still intact on hourly closing basis, it has indeed been breached by roughly 60 pts and the 139-pt trade distance from YH to today's intra-day low was almost achieved (less 8 points). You are being handsomely rewarded here so taking scaleout profits is a great way to protect the profits. I took 1/2 off and moved the stop to b/e. We are seeing a quick bounce on senate bill passage but I suspect the fear of holding into w/e and all the noise to come out of Flynn story will take over, imho. In any case, my ultimate target is 6160.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46077256144576484552017-12-01T16:42:29.862+00:002017-12-01T16:42:29.862+00:0010s have fallen 9 bps, 30s fell 10 bps or more.
Pr...10s have fallen 9 bps, 30s fell 10 bps or more.<br />Probably that's the last comment on the long rates topic for the time being, eh?Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42936254317698450432017-12-01T16:39:59.307+00:002017-12-01T16:39:59.307+00:00The yen surged 1% in 15 minutes..... The yen surged 1% in 15 minutes..... Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11412171030822903642017-12-01T16:31:04.000+00:002017-12-01T16:31:04.000+00:00I love the smell of napalm in the morning!I love the smell of napalm in the morning!Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54971932930026338012017-12-01T16:28:58.473+00:002017-12-01T16:28:58.473+00:00"Chad?
It's Brad, I am at the Serenity t..."Chad? <br />It's Brad, I am at the Serenity trading room. <br />Do you know where Thad is?<br />We just lost, ah, 8%, 9% of our AUM in 5 minutes."<br /><br />"Double down, bro.<br />Snort another line, dude.<br />INCREASE THE LEVERAGE. <br />Turn it up to ELEVEN, Nigel!"Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72001102280339001832017-12-01T10:52:44.036+00:002017-12-01T10:52:44.036+00:00Anyone care to explain how Simon Coveney's com...Anyone care to explain how Simon Coveney's comments today are consistent with a successful meeting between Tusk and May on Dec 4? What I'm struggling with currently ...johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88601982302455498492017-12-01T01:40:48.604+00:002017-12-01T01:40:48.604+00:00Pound call is working (switched to EURGBP in delta...Pound call is working (switched to EURGBP in delta-one and now very long GBPUSD in options as I'm getting into/closer to my strikes). So is EURCHF. The mean-reversion trades, EURSEK and EURNOK, are not. Somehow I scalped the hell out of EURNOK in the early morning. One of those rare instances, very rare, where I'd give myself an A+ for trading. Have kept the position small enough to be able to take that trading risk. Not sure where we go from here. NOKSEK seems to give some support at these levels, so it's maybe a question of EURSEK steadying/reversing (a Riksbank meeting and PPM pension money distribution to contend with) and EUR not ripping. Any regression model of EURNOK is broken and gives no comfort. That we're 1% from 10 on the cross (which was last seen in the depths of the GFC) I suppose is helpful. There's no narrative for hikes in 2018 to get excited about, but this currency weakness should boost inflation and maybe bring forward a hike (first not fully priced until 2019 currently). Also, OPEC has now passed without a debacle which is incrementally positive.<br />Hard to argue with Shawn on Turkey. Today Zarrab implicated Erdogan, but didn't sound like that was enough (I mean, this guy who bribes prison guards says some guy - presumably not Erdogan directly - told him Erdogan approved the scheme. Maybe true, but doubt that passes the standard of the court). Maybe I'll get lucky, the Zarrab thing doesn't blow up and the CBRT hikes as Erdogan's adviser suggests they might by the next meeting. Of course, getting lucky is not a great strategy when it comes to Turkey ... so many own-goals by these guys.<br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18560031977149221682017-11-30T22:11:04.228+00:002017-11-30T22:11:04.228+00:00Sorry for multiple notes, a bit scatterbrained tod...Sorry for multiple notes, a bit scatterbrained today... So while Wharton graduates and "alike" are jubilant about the Dow, I'd like to look at another index and see how we could play it in the event of sell-the-news (tax cuts bill passage, whatever) case taking place. So we have a 139-pt uptrend s/t channel on NQ. There has been no breach of the channel for the entire month of Nov. It's quite fitting for the mo-end momo chasing after a successful test of the lower trendline y/day and we are dead smack in the middle of the channel right now. This being said, 6376 (11/22-23 lows) is an important resistance level to overcome. We stopped right there today. Should it not let in for a few days we may have a case of minor exhaustion forming. You could start putting fib extensions on this but I would simply measure 139 points below the break of the channel for the target. That's roughly 3-4% below ATH, depending on when and where the actual break occurs. In case you are wondering, the last four Dec were all down months for NDX with an avg decline of 1.3% on monthly closing basis and avg decline of 2.4% below ATH at a low print in Dec.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30769578295373874712017-11-30T20:04:18.349+00:002017-11-30T20:04:18.349+00:00So we have the ext of the oil production cuts (wit...So we have the ext of the oil production cuts (with Libya and Nigeria quotas agreed) and a missile flying towards Saudis? Oh my, I better go buy more stocks. Oil stocks, that is. This is hardly the top of the range on crude, imho.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.com