tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4349130579729873466..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: 2011 Non-Predictions 5 - FXMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42994713801089909992011-01-14T21:17:01.969+00:002011-01-14T21:17:01.969+00:00Nice post on USDJPY which we have heard touted by ...Nice post on USDJPY which we have heard touted by all and sundry of late. <br /><br />The Golden Shot? Classic. The DXY is without doubt a Bob Monkhouse market. <br /><br />Equities would be a Kenneth Williams market (ooooh, I say...) although munis today would be a Frankie Howard market (the Screens, Nurse, the Screens !)Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79366846599959860712011-01-14T05:19:32.976+00:002011-01-14T05:19:32.976+00:00It only took a fraction of the Portuguese action.It only took a fraction of the Portuguese action.tax lien investinghttp://www.cardinalls.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37566532122125047452011-01-13T10:59:19.175+00:002011-01-13T10:59:19.175+00:00O, FX at last , TMM, If I was propunting at Ascot ...O, FX at last , TMM, If I was propunting at Ascot I'd take the year off, pretty difficult to beat last year fx calls and final figures.....but I'm a betting man so instead this year I'm going to just stalk my little baby.<br /><br />I'm betting Shergar finally jumps the shark this year.<br /><br />The Strongs (Yen-Chf) had their re-adjustment in the last half of the year vs the ref in line with QQE etc.........BUT! our Finazzes ( financial razzes gbp & euro ) maybe the sucker trade this year due to exp rates hike (gbp) rate-inflation diff (euro)if V lighten up re-cycling, that'll put a dent in the works, which I expect.<br /><br />When the Dow hits 12200 I'm out my longs...and only if it can close on a weekly basis after June above thee above level would I consider entering again.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29162547371892470192011-01-13T10:14:51.575+00:002011-01-13T10:14:51.575+00:00When I was a lad, cb's sold bills and bonds to...When I was a lad, cb's sold bills and bonds to mop up liquidity in the system. The risk asset reaction to portugal, spain etc seems to imply the opposite. <br /><br />Are European banks completely reliant on the ecb for funds ?Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27639172760768629242011-01-13T06:49:34.950+00:002011-01-13T06:49:34.950+00:00guys, just for my learning, how have you defined t...guys, just for my learning, how have you defined that USJNREER index in bloomberg?<br />thank you in advance.B. A.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07349828116672888275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90323995600783968812011-01-13T06:20:36.209+00:002011-01-13T06:20:36.209+00:0021 is a good one; just hope small time hedgies lea...21 is a good one; just hope small time hedgies learn to be smarter this year than bet against them, but I suspect history will repeat for another year; we need some churn in the industry and doesn't hurt to see some small timers go away :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17299686912279345912011-01-12T16:27:13.779+00:002011-01-12T16:27:13.779+00:00Anon,
Yes, exactly. And that's why they'r...Anon,<br /><br />Yes, exactly. And that's why they're called "Non-Predictions".<br /><br />But for the one year view, we are not convinced by anything at the moment in FX apart from No. 21. We were debating some punchy calls, but then thought "what's the point?". It's easier to play those views in the underlying assets, rather than try and call the second derivative function through FX.cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15163596035379469182011-01-12T16:09:58.230+00:002011-01-12T16:09:58.230+00:00wow, you guys really stuck your necks out on these...wow, you guys really stuck your necks out on these calls ... certain lack of conviction?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com