tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4332944061429287178..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Tax the Car to Save the CartMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48138871187217215252021-07-09T07:16:59.867+01:002021-07-09T07:16:59.867+01:00ดูหนังใหม่2021
seriesfin.com<a href="https://movie22hd.com/" rel="nofollow">ดูหนังใหม่2021</a><br /><a href="http://seriesfin.com/" rel="nofollow">seriesfin.com</a>แนะนำหนังดังต่างชาติhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12384489343741809837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34717733213823527282012-10-27T09:01:21.982+01:002012-10-27T09:01:21.982+01:00casino jatekok Szótár fontos információt nyújt a k...casino jatekok Szótár fontos információt nyújt a kaszinó és a játékok, amelyek segítenek, hogy pénzt online szerencsejátékok.eu casino véleményekhttp://casinojatekok-hu.com/casino-velemenyek.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79562677780886868752012-10-16T15:56:01.373+01:002012-10-16T15:56:01.373+01:00C says'
LB,posts have moved on,but your post t...C says'<br />LB,posts have moved on,but your post to me was here so here I will reply. Bear in mind my friend that when I take this initial position I;m looking further out beyond the current situation for small caps.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6045718037038575792012-10-16T15:45:05.353+01:002012-10-16T15:45:05.353+01:00Shorties looking a little uncomfortable again toda...Shorties looking a little uncomfortable again today. They don't like it up 'em, Captain Mainwaring..<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhWlAKdlQp4&feature=related" rel="nofollow"> Cold Steel </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58655005954684826002012-10-16T15:05:50.464+01:002012-10-16T15:05:50.464+01:00C,
Not to get all granular on you, but energy and...C,<br /><br />Not to get all granular on you, but energy and materials are lagging and look as though they may continue to underperform. A lot of energy and materials in the small cap universe. Just sayin'...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/10/15/one-year-trading-range-charts-for-the-ten-sp-500-sectors.html" rel="nofollow"> S&P Sector Analysis </a><br /><br />We like the large cap tech here, um, AAPL, GOOG, etc. which are oversold and due to play catch up.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25235535841123352082012-10-16T13:19:06.038+01:002012-10-16T13:19:06.038+01:00My typing is truly dreadful ,but in my defence I h...My typing is truly dreadful ,but in my defence I have one keyboard for this stuff ,and I am trying to write a book on another one so if I start heading off into the incongruous at least you might know why.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14212173723357229842012-10-16T13:16:38.292+01:002012-10-16T13:16:38.292+01:00C says'
DD, that si pretty much the way I also...C says'<br />DD, that si pretty much the way I also see it,but now I am looking to se the combination of those effects that you mention start to ripple out through the samll cap sector that feeds off this type of economic activity. Again, many years ago I running such a business so I am simply speaking from personal experience.<br />Of course the assumptions are that we get continuity ,and therin is where I ams ure we wil have opposing views to mine. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45055955735842990922012-10-16T11:31:56.325+01:002012-10-16T11:31:56.325+01:00Some would argue that the bank low from Sept last ...Some would argue that the bank low from Sept last year was the beginning of that process.<br /><br />Just witness the massive ramp in homebuilders since then for example.<br /><br />For the geekier minds amongst us, ABX indices are a nice confirmation point too.Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4960255219238849672012-10-16T11:15:06.529+01:002012-10-16T11:15:06.529+01:00C says'
Though I've been loath to go US eq...C says'<br />Though I've been loath to go US equity after this latest round of QE I'm going to stick my neck out here on some assumptions which if they don't play out will leave me on the wrong side of a trade. Namely, I am going to assume the US is going to continue with a multi year recovery ,and to date the effects of QE have helped the larger caps ,and global multis the most. However, assuming a dribble down effect inevitably happens in such a recovery I have decided to register an interest in US small caps to outperform other US equity.<br />Much of this is predicated also on the assumption that what i see in the US re data on the recovery of banking ,autos and housing data continues.<br />Whilst this cycle has been in place for years up to this point I would suggest that only in this year do we see what I would really expect to see quite early in a normal recovery regarding the Industries mentioned. So, in essence what I am suggesting is that the abnormal effects of the GFC have served to elongate the normal economic recovery cycle. So ,I am now looking for the dribble down effect to pick up speed.Place your bets !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50412871652882282202012-10-16T05:39:17.975+01:002012-10-16T05:39:17.975+01:00Johnny Retail here, still holding Anna Lee. Wishi...Johnny Retail here, still holding Anna Lee. Wishing I read you guys more often....<br /><br />WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46638382264219979562012-10-15T21:27:31.855+01:002012-10-15T21:27:31.855+01:00CIM should be a great investment, on paper, you wo...CIM should be a great investment, on paper, you would think they are doing something similar to TWO and Doubline, only more aggresive with non agency paper...but the fact that the divy has been cut by half in 2 years along with the fact that they havent filed with the SEC in 15months (cant read up on holdings) has probably left many holders wondering...abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58380711311776147762012-10-15T21:15:58.014+01:002012-10-15T21:15:58.014+01:00Agreed abee. The same reason that has sent mReits ...Agreed abee. The same reason that has sent mReits crashing down (low asset yields) is the one that will make investors settle for 13ish in the end (not many alternatives really). But as said before, if you get the best of both worlds (better housing, low rates) CIM could be very yummy. Lots of intestinal fortitude required on the way there though. And the refi wave's key demo probably not your typical non agency borrower (at least not at the onset).Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31574780135455853452012-10-15T21:05:06.511+01:002012-10-15T21:05:06.511+01:00Cold Steel, love you much, Hot Bear. Have to wait ...Cold Steel, love you much, Hot Bear. Have to wait and see, may be the big seller out of US is done and the rebalancing is overAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55389661746845683872012-10-15T20:58:00.398+01:002012-10-15T20:58:00.398+01:00C says'
hardly Macro,but is this the first Mon...C says'<br />hardly Macro,but is this the first Monday for quite awhile that has not been early spike sold off to close? Interesting.<br /><br />By the the way it's been about 4 years now that I have been taking a more psycholgical appraisal of what we might see across the financial world in terms of change from prior long term behaviour. That is ,the reaction to what had gone before.I'm not unhappy to see that a good number of the changes that I thought would happen have occurred, and are continuing to happen. Nothing really anything to worry about.From a psychological perspective the changes are really only to be expected. Human behaviour at it's almost predictable best.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33022904423224663062012-10-15T20:57:15.745+01:002012-10-15T20:57:15.745+01:00Hello Shorties! I know that I have been gone for a...Hello Shorties! I know that I have been gone for a while, but I am back and now I am loving all of you at the close in my special way. <br /><br />I see that many of you are actually quite small Bears with exceedingly tight stops. Exquisitely pleasurable....Cold Steelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8050046577817908632012-10-15T20:23:30.362+01:002012-10-15T20:23:30.362+01:00http://blog.bcaresearch.com/agency-mortgage-reits-...http://blog.bcaresearch.com/agency-mortgage-reits-time-to-bail BCA clients got the memo last week I assume. <br /><br />NLY and the rest are having trouble finding yield but the trade is still decent. Rates arent going up, so funding stays low. Expectations just need to be ratcheted down. When the refi wave comes, sell AGNC, not NLY, whose been more conservative. CIM should actually do well, non-agency trade at discount. if you get a refi wave, hello 20% IRRsabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77550537086750778032012-10-15T18:15:55.209+01:002012-10-15T18:15:55.209+01:00As a wise man once told me, a big part of the busi...As a wise man once told me, a big part of the business is to be able to avoid the big dumps. That way you are able to catch the falling knife rather than be holding on to it when it descends at Mach 1.25:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9608768/Felix-Baumgartner-celebrates-record-skydive-from-space.html" rel="nofollow"> Skydive from Space </a><br /><br />Agreed on the mREITs, let's wait until the parachutes have opened!Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80836395533532931232012-10-15T18:11:51.254+01:002012-10-15T18:11:51.254+01:00CIM's outperformance is also very telling. Pri...CIM's outperformance is also very telling. Principal recovery dominates rent capture. Bullish rotation innit?Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28255333122023593942012-10-15T18:08:54.173+01:002012-10-15T18:08:54.173+01:00LB, not to pat oneself on the back but I am quite ...LB, not to pat oneself on the back but I am quite happy we have had that very mREIT discussion at the near top of the 6m move. Massive asset spread compression is even more to blame than rate fears IMO .<br /><br />Buying Anna back after a move like this is always good Pavlovian fun, but let's not be too overconfident: one of these days, the refi wave will be for real and support will be much lower than it has been for the past three years. Not likely this time around yet, but let's keep it mind.Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91601595034718373732012-10-15T18:01:02.952+01:002012-10-15T18:01:02.952+01:00Speaking of rockets, the Spooz just launched verti...Speaking of rockets, the Spooz just launched vertically like a rocket ship. Hope Mr Shorty has plenty of intestinal fortitude, because a visit from Cold Steel seems not unlikely this week.<br /><br />Dear old Anna Lee (NLY) taking it on the chin today. We sold the common around $17, seems like this stock gets nailed at least once a year. Still in the preferred shares, also have some TWO.<br /><br />The mREITs all seem to be allergic to any hint of stronger data or rate hikes. The rental REITs, e.g. ARR, seem to be a lot more stable. Wonder if the annual shearing of the dividend and slaughter of the lambs is upon us? It's always fun to buy 'em back across the whole sector when the yield gets up to 20% again.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67391537300116206092012-10-15T17:03:20.014+01:002012-10-15T17:03:20.014+01:00You are probably right, unless one has the PhD the...You are probably right, unless one has the PhD there is nothing else to do but to build rocketsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41722341111434561642012-10-15T16:40:56.671+01:002012-10-15T16:40:56.671+01:00IMO every rocket scientiest who really builds rock...IMO every rocket scientiest who really builds rockets instead of going into finance, because you can't beat the money, is a movement in the right diretion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3804151704479307962012-10-15T16:31:55.910+01:002012-10-15T16:31:55.910+01:00It turns out that sell side and to a large extent ...It turns out that sell side and to a large extent buy side are just another set of jobs right now and not that popular at that. Arguably that is the way it should be: more control, less character and (at some point) prudent lending. I would like banks much more with simple model which is difficult to break than with endless booking mistakes and uncalibrateable parameters. There is one problem though (well, one which is curious, represents a trend and not obvious straightaway). It used to be that the brightest and smartest graduates (and I am really talking about competent undergraduates as opposed to MBAs) were eager to work in finance. Where do they go now? Consulting firms are the most desirable employs or so I hear. In my opinion that is a waste. NickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com