tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4271460532900200383..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: China SqueezeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7769692524030745132011-09-29T21:11:27.966+01:002011-09-29T21:11:27.966+01:00For those of you who are in the US: yes, even afte...For those of you who are in the US: yes, even after the massive correction, silver is still more overpriced than Carl Crawford.<br /><br />(Also as has been pointed out here before, the late session dumping of the favourites - US tech, staples etc - while the turds - basically, banks - outperform is not a good omen for October)Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24933419204522661952011-09-29T20:41:00.787+01:002011-09-29T20:41:00.787+01:00DOJ probing Chinese ADRs - ReutersDOJ probing Chinese ADRs - ReutersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28847728980687486732011-09-29T19:39:36.165+01:002011-09-29T19:39:36.165+01:000.5% losses on assets is a joke.
No one really kno...0.5% losses on assets is a joke.<br />No one really knows the real figure.Lemmiwinkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17888530968877107303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71420948189039500502011-09-29T17:51:52.569+01:002011-09-29T17:51:52.569+01:00LB is short silver, there are so many people who o...LB is short silver, there are so many people who own it but now not quite sure exactly why they bought it. <br /><br />Inflation hedge? Industrial metal? DGDF? Sky falling? Mad Max scenario bartering instrument?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52606408269566613452011-09-29T16:45:36.518+01:002011-09-29T16:45:36.518+01:00USDCAD off 10%, AUDUSD 13%, USDZAR 25%, etc.
Not...USDCAD off 10%, AUDUSD 13%, USDZAR 25%, etc. <br />Not sure I would call that holding up.willemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29119181815011778582011-09-29T16:43:02.046+01:002011-09-29T16:43:02.046+01:00FWIW Skippy I like shorting Silver (yes, I'm y...FWIW Skippy I like shorting Silver (yes, I'm young and don't have heart disease yet) simply because there's a lot of it being produced from by-product credits and absolutely no uptake from central banks. Sure its high vol but it seems a lot more yogi bear as a short than copper tbh.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36507559444595428572011-09-29T16:13:48.418+01:002011-09-29T16:13:48.418+01:00My working assumption is that this consolidation r...My working assumption is that this consolidation range in the S&P is likely to be a continuation pattern and break to the downside. <br /><br />As LB noted yesterday, the failure to punch above 1200 is potentially bearish. <br /><br />I suspect that 1000 is more likely than 1300 over the next few weeks. That may crush any residual optimism in the teflon coated EM and commodity currencies.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45418069621691629062011-09-29T16:12:49.744+01:002011-09-29T16:12:49.744+01:00Feels like a good day to have very few positions o...Feels like a good day to have very few positions on. That morning rally was certainly sold in a hurry.<br /><br />The big macro question of the week is surely: is the recent dollar rally complete, or just taking a breather? If not, then it's hard to see how most markets can climb from here, as a dollar rally to DXY 80 or thereabouts would take down the miners, industrials and banks. Most of the regulars here seem to think EURUSD and the metals, and commodity FX like AUDUSD etc. will have another leg down.<br /><br />There will be a monster China squeeze, but isn't it going to be ignited by global QE?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53682789694291158182011-09-29T15:54:32.646+01:002011-09-29T15:54:32.646+01:00Anon @ 2.59, clearly there has been a correction i...Anon @ 2.59, clearly there has been a correction in commodity currencies and miners over the past two months, but it is still fairly modest relative to Chinese developers other risk assets (equities and some EM currencies) in general.<br /><br />CheersSkippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39435097265759919992011-09-29T15:03:31.412+01:002011-09-29T15:03:31.412+01:00@Secre-Sauce,
Re Pechoa-Kama canal - you'll s...@Secre-Sauce,<br /><br />Re Pechoa-Kama canal - you'll see a war over water between India-China sometimes this century!<br /><br />Most water in Indian north/western states(major agri. states) comes from Tibetan lakes fed by Himalayan glaciers. I think Doug Kass(in his yearly 10 things to watch) is too early.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13084065553934771652011-09-29T14:59:18.276+01:002011-09-29T14:59:18.276+01:00@Skippy re Commdolls -
CAD = 1.06 U$D July 26th
...@Skippy re Commdolls -<br /><br />CAD = 1.06 U$D July 26th<br /><br />CAD =.9690 today.<br /><br />And Cdn oil majors like SU and coal names like Teck smashed!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20037246883664504062011-09-29T14:01:34.681+01:002011-09-29T14:01:34.681+01:00Skippy - no idea. I think there's still a big ...Skippy - no idea. I think there's still a big bid out for those currencies so long as we don't get a full scale EM FX unwind - ie $ diversification running backwards. Long run these should revert with terms of trade but... well, that's a long wait generally speaking.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65639207985769222322011-09-29T13:19:28.319+01:002011-09-29T13:19:28.319+01:00won ..own
freudian slipwon ..own <br />freudian slipAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1342158294176002262011-09-29T13:18:51.916+01:002011-09-29T13:18:51.916+01:00C says'
China has it's won mess to clean u...C says'<br />China has it's won mess to clean up,but it does have the advantage in this arena of being able to do so without Europolitical dissent getting in the way.,or indeed the bond market jumping all over them directly.Indeed if it was perceibed they shovelling big brown stuff under some mountain in the outermost reaches of China what would happen? Oh yes ,their currency would be pressured and they wouldn't want that would they?<br /><br />We've been in the let's all tighten boys' Bric madw world,stand by for the cycle of loosen up guys there's no such thing as inflation only the opportunities of great growth ;)<br /><br />Meanwhile back in Euroland on the austerity feelgood diet it is rumoured that Berlusconi will now only be having 3 orgies a week ,but at his age he anticipates he might live longer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5646613842100033012011-09-29T13:14:49.574+01:002011-09-29T13:14:49.574+01:00Thanks Skippy, but this is actually nemo's bab...Thanks Skippy, but this is actually nemo's baby.. will let him handle the questions.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76660487918576978152011-09-29T13:09:19.105+01:002011-09-29T13:09:19.105+01:00Come on guys - think bigger - that's better!
...Come on guys - think bigger - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South%E2%80%93North_Water_Transfer_Project" rel="nofollow">that's better!</a><br /><br />I'm waiting for the Pechora-Kama canal solution to be refloated and put on short copper/long uranium.Secret--Saucenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63604884939021252822011-09-29T12:46:31.575+01:002011-09-29T12:46:31.575+01:00Good note Pol, no real argument from me. I would a...Good note Pol, no real argument from me. I would also add that a few of the sycophant sell-side brokers have capitulated this week on Chinese banks. <br /><br />What has puzzled me for some time is why some of the China adjuncts -e.g. the commodity currencies - have not corrected by more in sympathy with copper and Chinese developers.Skippynoreply@blogger.com