tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4240273118650225007..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A Hobbesian correction?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88192528321925249682014-10-23T03:46:32.156+01:002014-10-23T03:46:32.156+01:00@River, I do remember ben22 for sure. I have wond...@River, I do remember ben22 for sure. I have wondered what happened to him. Thanks for the pointer! <br /><br />- WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91880991443259644962014-10-23T02:16:56.638+01:002014-10-23T02:16:56.638+01:00@Whammer,do you remember ben22? I have followed hi...@Whammer,do you remember ben22? I have followed him and LB since 2008/2009 Ritholtz blog.I can say he is one of the best technical trader out there.Neither bull nor bear..trades what he sees on his charts! He called this huge bull move in U.S. equities from Nov.2012.He is a CMT now.If you like you can check out his tweets at @FatF1nger and his blog at http://fatf1nger.wordpress.com/2014/10/05/evening-observations-10514/Rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91767111712162329282014-10-23T02:16:39.766+01:002014-10-23T02:16:39.766+01:00@Whammer,do you remember ben22? I have followed hi...@Whammer,do you remember ben22? I have followed him and LB since 2008/2009 Ritholtz blog.I can say he is one of the best technical trader out there.Neither bull nor bear..trades what he sees on his charts! He called this huge bull move in U.S. equities from Nov.2012.He is a CMT now.If you like you can check out his tweets at @FatF1nger and his blog at http://fatf1nger.wordpress.com/2014/10/05/evening-observations-10514/Rivernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42132845950391237242014-10-23T00:40:34.613+01:002014-10-23T00:40:34.613+01:00Don't be a grinch! It's festive time in In...Don't be a grinch! It's festive time in India!Appy Diwali everyone...who culd'eve knowed..INR hasn't buzzed.Transfer of wealth I suppose and Blankfeind doin' God's work!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1421603309359566542014-10-22T22:40:33.552+01:002014-10-22T22:40:33.552+01:00$BALT today . $4.30 high print to $3.67 close or a...$BALT today . $4.30 high print to $3.67 close or a 15% plunge intradayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22689149859397412552014-10-22T22:38:24.360+01:002014-10-22T22:38:24.360+01:00 UST all going green in AH . 10yr UST up 1/4 point... UST all going green in AH . 10yr UST up 1/4 point off noon lowsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38993175177352192892014-10-22T21:02:49.451+01:002014-10-22T21:02:49.451+01:00>>> No, more likely this remains the most...>>> No, more likely this remains the most distrusted, hated Bull market in history. Bull markets don't end with such hate permeating and lingering. They end when people are afraid not to be long. <<<<br /><br />Most hated? Hated in '12, not so much in '13, and by the start of '14 palpable fear of missing out emerging. IMV.<br /><br />4th wave corrections are the oppo for the FOMOs® to come share the love. In good time as the 5th matures, for sure no one's missing out then and Yazz is on repeat.<br /><br />So was that the 4th done, or just its A? My rearview's less foggy than my crystal ball, so I'll pass, except to say that '15 is when the 5th rips a few more faces off until there are none more to rip and the real entertainment commences.<br /><br />Innit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86300556579347957112014-10-22T20:55:53.028+01:002014-10-22T20:55:53.028+01:00The closer for the today.....You can destroy me NY...The closer for the today.....You can destroy me NYC , I have no doubt, but you'll only prove what I already know.<br />That is you can destroy but not build.amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48464487440418857402014-10-22T20:04:18.001+01:002014-10-22T20:04:18.001+01:00obvious from the price action this late wednesday ...obvious from the price action this late wednesday that there is some serious distribution going on for the first time since last week's low....is it the real thing which will carry us to the mid nov low? too soon to tell...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35410600518793171632014-10-22T19:56:59.202+01:002014-10-22T19:56:59.202+01:00Where will the S&P go, I am not sure. Are we s...Where will the S&P go, I am not sure. Are we setting up for an epic H&S or was this just another bounce that we should have blindly bought. Too early to tell. My gut tells me R2K will lead this market higher but its just a hunch now. <br /><br />Whats more interesting IMO is EDZ5/10year rates and oil. The deflation vs slow growth theme. <br /><br />Long dollar seems secular, IMO. How that plays out with China is a big question. Elephant in the room is a big devaluation by China, which probably comes at some point if Dollar continues going straight up and China slows worse than the Party wantsabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67889758788156629672014-10-22T19:41:56.837+01:002014-10-22T19:41:56.837+01:00Oh, I forgot, if you need telling after today , yo...Oh, I forgot, if you need telling after today , you boys on the NY desk.....than yeah, were done!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68090956734775333512014-10-22T19:34:10.629+01:002014-10-22T19:34:10.629+01:00C Says
Precision isn't in my vocabulary so I c...C Says<br />Precision isn't in my vocabulary so I could start going short around here and build ,or I can wait. I'll do the latter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49350718209370388192014-10-22T19:26:44.533+01:002014-10-22T19:26:44.533+01:00And where should the FOMC guide there bonds, well ...And where should the FOMC guide there bonds, well Asia for starters.<br />The underlying guarantee of these arrangements of bonds now have the strength of a half-dozen donuts soaked in coffee and is stamped at this quality forever. Arrangements are not what they used to be.<br />Let's stop the rot, and move to another paradigm of thinking that eliminates the deadwood. If we are the ones that at the end of the day are going to be making the trades than fuck the guesses trying to buy and sell and arrange everything to be suitable for a fairy tale within a fantasy castle.....that's bullshit, my best thinking has been in moments under the gun.<br />Horse for courses! no more arrangements.....let the horse run free!<br /> amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9261334581166334912014-10-22T19:20:40.337+01:002014-10-22T19:20:40.337+01:00if 'everyone' was/is expecting a year end ...if 'everyone' was/is expecting a year end rally then why on earth were people puking their guts last week? No, more likely this remains the most distrusted, hated Bull market in history. Bull markets don't end with such hate permeating and lingering. They end when people are afraid not to be long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26866149012045643122014-10-22T18:50:32.670+01:002014-10-22T18:50:32.670+01:00let's carry on with the tilted boat:
"ev...let's carry on with the tilted boat:<br /><br />"everyone" is expecting this nice V bounce to continue into Santa and print new highs just for bonus time<br /><br />how about that one for a crowded trade<br /><br />after 3000 triple test resistance am back to full stoxx short and will monitor retracement of retracement and perhaps some<br /><br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37887020648552357412014-10-22T18:49:54.956+01:002014-10-22T18:49:54.956+01:00I'm sick to death of hearing how the FOMC is s...I'm sick to death of hearing how the FOMC is selling Bonds, enough is enough, they've had years to separate bonds and stocks from inside the bank vault. It's time to let the market run free on it own accord , that's letting it go where ever it wants to go.....don't you think it's earned that right.<br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39033753113292261862014-10-22T18:13:43.315+01:002014-10-22T18:13:43.315+01:00I think the long dollar trades will continue to wo...I think the long dollar trades will continue to work through FOMC. It seems highly unlikely that fed is going to change stance with respect to ending QE based on a brief but gone period of volatility. What sort of signal would that send to the market? While still very dovish it seems like the fed (as an organization, not individual bankers talking) is trying to back away from the implicit put.<br /><br />If this is true, then we are basically back where we were 2 weeks ago - US tightening with the rest of the world loosening. How is that not dollar positive? For my book, when I am overthinking the trade it usually means my size is too big or my timeframe is too short.<br /><br />'spoos and blues is going to have a rough next year imho.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49388425081105462472014-10-22T18:06:19.541+01:002014-10-22T18:06:19.541+01:00Leftback - 1st - great calls last few days.
I gen...Leftback - 1st - great calls last few days.<br /><br />I generally think this is the 8th or 9th inning for the equity bull run - problem is that 8 vs 9 could mean a difference of 15% and 6 months - right now I am inclined to agree with the seasonality/santa rally crowd, but that's easy to say from the sidelines.<br /><br />On your EWZ/RSX stuff - to me the energy/EM story is structurally over, so as long as you know you are renting and not buying rallies in those you will be fine (full disclosure I retain some RSX length thinking it gets to 24 by Dec) - I think this market fully expects ECB to start QE in December with no impact, so on the margin it will be more about US centric news and fed action.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68170576892827545682014-10-22T17:25:19.320+01:002014-10-22T17:25:19.320+01:00One more thing: "everyone" expects loads...One more thing: "everyone" expects loads of banks to fail the ECB stress tests, results to be announced Sunday. Right now, that's likely to be the market mover ahead of us for EURUSD. Buy the News?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80327382569473158772014-10-22T17:05:32.334+01:002014-10-22T17:05:32.334+01:00Agreed with everyone, in principle.
Nico, this m...Agreed with everyone, in principle. <br /><br />Nico, this market (spoos) is indeed going down. <br />But like C, I think the flush happens later, after a period of backing and filling. <br />Like CV I remain clueless and on the sidelines.<br />B/c, like Pol, I see very little data to drive FX this week, hence vol selling and spoos drifting up.<br /><br />One thing the peanut gallery are collectively good at here at MM is to identify the consensus trade and then point out that everyone is on the same side of the boat.<br /><br />What I would like to point out here is, just as at the end of 2013, "everyone" called for higher rates, right now "everyone" is calling for a higher USD, as "everyone" waits for the US recovery, and "everyone" is convinced that Europe is heading into a deep recession, "everyone" thinks that peripheral bonds will blow up, and hence "everyone" hates the Euro.<br /><br />What if?:<br /><br />a) Some limited ECB QE is already priced in.<br />b) Massive shock and awe QE is off the table.<br />c) Europe doesn't actually have a deep recession.<br />d) Banks hold their peripheral sovereign bonds.<br />e) US growth continues to be flaccid. <br />f) Dollar longs find they are over-extended.<br /><br />This will take a few more days to resolve I think, but USD crosses don't seem to have much momentum and the charts for EURUSD and JPYUSD are looking more constructive.<br /><br />If we are right and DX reverses lower, then we are back to EMs > DMs, and within that universe the miners, materials and energy should do OK, most notably in oversold markets that should undergo some mean reversion this winter (cough: Russia and Brazil).<br /><br />Complicated thesis, but doesn't involve The End of the World As We Know It...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39093235342372840292014-10-22T15:32:27.859+01:002014-10-22T15:32:27.859+01:00I was reading the other day that a Hedge Fund in M...I was reading the other day that a Hedge Fund in Melbourne solely trades on sports and racing, that's us all over!<br />Horses for courses , if you haven't noticed:)<br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36848834267909687412014-10-22T15:09:02.836+01:002014-10-22T15:09:02.836+01:00Macro Man, I know the facts about the refi rate, b...Macro Man, I know the facts about the refi rate, but seriously , these bankers and powers that be haven't taken a forward step that has mitigated the situation , and it's now apparently clear that they really don't have much of an idea of the hidden cracks within there castle.<br />Let's call it a day and be done with it after this bull run and let this mug move to Happy Valley , HK, and enjoy his final years. It's simple , it's the only place where he really wants to be, let him go!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52245227110658712532014-10-22T14:53:32.112+01:002014-10-22T14:53:32.112+01:00Indeed, but I would classify it as anecdotal if no...Indeed, but I would classify it as anecdotal if not self serving (we, central bankers, are mortals after all, la vie est dure pour nous aussi, don't come for our hides when it all goes kaboom)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43930871215311588712014-10-22T14:41:48.845+01:002014-10-22T14:41:48.845+01:00@ Anon. The fact that Ben Bernanke got dinged for...@ Anon. The fact that Ben Bernanke got dinged for a refi would suggest that lending standards remain quite tight, n'est-ce pas?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6577911358294773702014-10-22T14:32:45.218+01:002014-10-22T14:32:45.218+01:00@MM
Significant demand for loans is minimal except...@MM<br />Significant demand for loans is minimal except mostly for big Cos funding stock buybacks with a mix of cash flows and borrowings;<br />The wall of worries hasn't prevented the S&P from rising but has prevented small and medium size businesses from investing. (granted loan standard are a bit tighter).<br />I expect a loosening of lending standard within 6 months and then it will be interesting to watch this liquidity hiting the economy.<br />The CBs want more inflation, be careful what you wish for, you might get it....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com