tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4189760243827700373..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: U-Turn or U-bendMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84774439379613820542011-07-05T20:50:19.285+01:002011-07-05T20:50:19.285+01:00Actually think EMs, particularly in Asia, will see...Actually think EMs, particularly in Asia, will see rally in 2H11. Inflation fear trade has left some very attractive values. Tighter policy has been a headwind but this will neutralize and be a positive for equities. Assuming China doesnt blow up...Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10625654273620334698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42447991396095457362011-07-05T20:43:30.748+01:002011-07-05T20:43:30.748+01:00With excuses for short term performance in abundan...With excuses for short term performance in abundance the next catalyst will be Q2 earnings, and if I had to bet, markets will focus on guidance and guidance from CEOs will be rosey...Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10625654273620334698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91885673176707896102011-07-05T20:28:00.175+01:002011-07-05T20:28:00.175+01:00U-bend is known as a P-trap in the US.
In the inte...U-bend is known as a P-trap in the US.<br />In the interests of transatlantic understanding...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19665953859725170302011-07-05T15:44:59.318+01:002011-07-05T15:44:59.318+01:00Readers may be interested in Primary Dealer foreca...Readers may be interested in Primary Dealer forecasts of EoY 2s/10s. Some very aggressive "recovery" numbers!<br /><br /><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasuries-Triple-Global-bloomberg-3190968404.html;_ylt=Aiaubtb2tLCub6YRNvQ7JNK7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2dXJ0ZHMyBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDdHJlYXN1cmllc3Ry?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=" rel="nofollow"> P/D Rates Forecasts for EoY 2011 </a><br /><br />Some highlights (2y/10y):<br /><br />MF Global 1.5 3.9 (1.5, what are they smoking?)<br />Deutsche Bank 0.5 3.25 (front row Euro seats)<br />Nomura 0.85 3.15 (best punters of late)<br />Taleb 27.8 16.9 <br /><br />(oops, kidding - my Greek forecast there)Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14591525489000132942011-07-05T14:57:04.404+01:002011-07-05T14:57:04.404+01:00Interesting grab bag of comments! Agreed with almo...Interesting grab bag of comments! Agreed with almost everyone:<br /><br />1) There is/was a soft patch, but<br />2) It isn't going to be over (1-2 months?), until <br />3) Crude falls into the $80s, on<br />4) A firmer dollar, which<br />5) After a near-term pull-back, is eventually<br />6) Positive for US/Japan equities, hence<br />7) Not a good entry point here for bonds, and<br />8) Higher interest rates lie ahead, and<br />9) DMs outperform EMs on<br />10) Inflation worries in Asia!<br /><br />So that lot has us positioned long US/Japan equities and modestly short energy/submerging markups for the time being. Anyone who thinks the US market is super-healthy should look at the banks today. When the banks get spanked, the spooz tend to lose.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89873147365367788812011-07-05T13:46:11.447+01:002011-07-05T13:46:11.447+01:00I still think we need fb, zynga and groupon to IPO...I still think we need fb, zynga and groupon to IPO go crazy before I get really confident to sell. And if China primes the presses why fight it now<br /><br />Price action in LNKD has been a good tell of risk monkeys<br /><br />Thanks for the advice Nemo re: ilmanenabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80065576191778886452011-07-05T01:44:51.940+01:002011-07-05T01:44:51.940+01:00Humbling isn't it? Still long bonds? Still sho...Humbling isn't it? Still long bonds? Still short stocks? Well if you "experts" here cannot tell a short covering rally from another leg up, its time to take a walk fellows! Or just join your nemesis and be part of the JBTFD crowd :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79494309822747292132011-07-04T21:22:32.762+01:002011-07-04T21:22:32.762+01:00Well, the ECRI weekly leading index is still point...Well, the ECRI weekly leading index is still pointing down and Lakshman Achuthan has been on CNBC every week saying how their long leading indicators are pointing to a multi-quarter slowdown. So the ISM may have been an aberration.Rajathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11683681161752274152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14214180272807859112011-07-04T17:14:56.661+01:002011-07-04T17:14:56.661+01:00"June U.S. Jobs Could Be Made In Japan" ..."June U.S. Jobs Could Be Made In Japan" - marketwatch.com<br /><br />BTE job #s coming up?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19233857317582319572011-07-04T17:09:35.297+01:002011-07-04T17:09:35.297+01:00Right Nic:
"Anyone else think the dollar ...Right Nic: <br /><br /> <br />"Anyone else think the dollar and stock indexes can move in tandem?"<br /><br />One big fat pink flamingo about to be slaughtered here<br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58685933668435251592011-07-04T16:29:28.833+01:002011-07-04T16:29:28.833+01:00Hello long time.
Technically there are some big we...Hello long time.<br />Technically there are some big weekly bullish reversal signals.<br />For the coming week I think we see the 3-day holiday reversal rule. The trend into a big holiday weekend is almost always reversed the week following so expecting some pullback and consolidation this week.<br /><br />Anyone else think the dollar and stock indexes can move in tandem?Nichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30125965721257125862011-07-04T16:25:04.063+01:002011-07-04T16:25:04.063+01:00Doesn't the stock/inventory point to a sub 50 ...Doesn't the stock/inventory point to a sub 50 ISM print? <br /><br />The indicators we are looking at, at the office confirms the slowdown but not a recession. If the leading indicators deteriorate for one month more though, it is a recession call. Negative surprises though are at an extreme and levelling off. <br /><br />I am in the 1400+ camp, for now ... <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39632191184782056232011-07-04T15:45:42.413+01:002011-07-04T15:45:42.413+01:00"I still think the trade in the middle kingdo..."I still think the trade in the middle kingdom is long risk and receiving shibor. They are going to let credit rip again and hurt the shorts before they well and truly wet the bed in 2012/2013."<br /><br />Agree with you on that Nemo. Actually, Wen Jiabao's famous FT editorial provided a nice entry signal.Sidhttp://rene-korda.livejournal.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28536419406973915702011-07-04T15:11:22.790+01:002011-07-04T15:11:22.790+01:00abee crombie viz ilmanen its the absolute shiznit....abee crombie viz ilmanen its the absolute shiznit. I've bought a copy for my interns so that when I am too busy to mentor they can at least help themselves. <br /><br />And viz China folks, looks to the ne plus ultra of EM inflationary shitshows in Asia, Vietnam. They just cut rates in face of 20% inflation - I still think the trade in the middle kingdom is long risk and receiving shibor. They are going to let credit rip again and hurt the shorts before they well and truly wet the bed in 2012/2013. Price action in copper was indicative of positioning.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83794933911795362832011-07-04T14:58:36.212+01:002011-07-04T14:58:36.212+01:00There was a post on Zero Hedge regarding new order...There was a post on Zero Hedge regarding new orders less inventories as being a leading indicator for the ISM. Here it is:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ism-new-orders-less-inventories-decoupling-hits-unprecedented-levels-implies-sub-45-ism-comp <br /><br />Any thoughts on this? Certainly inventory additions contributed meaningfully to the ISM, and new orders were weak.<br /><br />Aside from the Kansas City Fed report, I don't see any other indicia of the end of the "soft patch." Thoughts?PPMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79376169098206675862011-07-04T14:51:35.390+01:002011-07-04T14:51:35.390+01:00With the S&P a whopping 1.5% from it's May...With the S&P a whopping 1.5% from it's May 2nd close (vs 6% from it's recent low close), I am much more inclined to sell here than buy. My gut is telling me that we will see an intraday high above May 2nd's close sometime soon. Should that happen, I will be selling (with relatively tight stops)for sure.<br /><br />Moving above May's high despite (incomplete?) downgrades to economic growth would strike me as ludicrous. I have yet to hear enough discussion of the impact of the cuts the Dems and Republicans are currently negotiating on GDP (and business confidence)moving forward.<br /><br />But hey, I have been wrong before.WellRednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45537349523300962652011-07-04T13:13:36.280+01:002011-07-04T13:13:36.280+01:00off topic q... any one read Antti Ilmanen's bo...off topic q... any one read Antti Ilmanen's book Expected Returns? Any thoughtsabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com