tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4168914865656816882..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A Little PerspectiveMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75303387940871502542009-06-07T21:22:05.243+01:002009-06-07T21:22:05.243+01:00mm
i think a 200movavg breach this strong is setti...mm<br />i think a 200movavg breach this strong is setting up for further mkt str.<br /><br />tbt looks to explode higher.<br />crude is still strong.<br /><br />financials have run into a wall. <br />but we really dont need them to drive the ship. <br /><br />look at gs, fcx, tie, tbt. once they crossed the 200day, they have been ripping. <br /><br />if we blow through 95 strike quickly, we will be at 100 very soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63238693295201316142009-06-06T03:25:09.414+01:002009-06-06T03:25:09.414+01:00Paul W.,
That's what popped into my mind abou...Paul W.,<br /><br />That's what popped into my mind about 15 sec. after I heard the number.<br /><br />old traderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53863178830217732622009-06-05T21:17:01.577+01:002009-06-05T21:17:01.577+01:00Regarding continuing claims, it looks like it is j...Regarding continuing claims, it looks like it is just eligibility that is expiring:<br /><br />http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2009/06/unemployment-data-exhaustion-rate.html<br /><br />U6 and hours worked both posted significant declines.pwm76https://www.blogger.com/profile/06360404038525306119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29877198380766807672009-06-05T19:38:29.740+01:002009-06-05T19:38:29.740+01:00That's not the NFP or the claims numbers, that...That's not the NFP or the claims numbers, that was the Current Population Survey that the Census and the BLS do together that generates the household survey. Household-survey numbers include things like employment and unemployment rates. For all its flaws, survey research is a pretty mature field and the Census is pretty darned good at it.<br /><br />For what it's worth, the employment-population ratio from that survey is now down to levels last seen in 1984. Pure punk: research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIOwcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50386718797659911462009-06-05T18:01:12.752+01:002009-06-05T18:01:12.752+01:00I wonder how many finance geeks that live and die ...I wonder how many finance geeks that live and die by the NFP and continuing claims have ever participated in one of the surveys that makes up that data.<br /><br />I had the pleasure last summer (NFP survey), and it was an eye opener.<br /><br />A perfectly pleasant man shows up at your house (not your office) and starts asking you questions that range from "how many people live in this house?" to "how much money did you make last year?"<br /><br />The government agent immediately acknowledged that people are not forthcoming on either question. Whether its the wealthy or the blue collar guy working off the books -- no one gives an honest answer.<br /><br />Hours worked? This stat maybe had some meaning back in the day's of Henry Ford's assembly line jobs. If you travel on business and get stuck at the airport, does that count as working? It does for payroll purposes, but if you are trying to gauge economic activity -- not so much.<br /><br />If you work "full time", that goes down as 40 hours worked. Never mind that most white collar workers and many blue collar workers regularly do 50 hour weeks. The UAW guy getting 30 hours of work gets 'averaged' with the small business owner doing, ahem, "40 hours" -- and somehow the resulting statistic is supposed to have meaning.<br /><br />If you are on vacation one week of the survey (as I was) -- you are counted as unemployed. After all, you were not working.<br /><br />And I am not even going to mention that all these payroll numbers get revised by 20% a month or two later<br /><br />Many people believe in astrology, but that does not make it a science. The heavily revised numbers are perhaps OK for discerning trends several months after the fact.<br /><br />But the "live" numbers aren't any better than reading tea leavesGregnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67804017699636521542009-06-05T16:47:25.065+01:002009-06-05T16:47:25.065+01:00In re: claims, I prefer initial claims to continui...In re: claims, I prefer initial claims to continuing, despite the noise, for identifying turning points. So does the Philly Fed in promulgating the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti index. That index, which had (rightly) been marching upwards (up to less-negative numbers, but still up) with each new data point and revision, is as of today's NFP data moved to a distinctly less-positive trajectory for the first time in a while. See their tentacle plot at http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research%2Dand%2Ddata/real%2Dtime%2Dcenter/business%2Dconditions%2Dindex/ads_compare.pdf -- it's better than any homebrew indicator in my quiver.<br /><br />If 'green shoots' leave the ADS index settling below a -1 instead of moving above, that will be a bad sign. The stimulus money should start to hit soon, though, so I am hopeful that won't happen.<br /><br />FD: dollar-neutral and close to beta 0 on equities.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55582297091310769632009-06-05T14:52:56.244+01:002009-06-05T14:52:56.244+01:00bounce off that 200day and runbounce off that 200day and runAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81178160659486940312009-06-05T14:48:07.114+01:002009-06-05T14:48:07.114+01:00950... count it
mpm950... count it<br /><br />mpmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12041612898688203402009-06-05T12:27:37.868+01:002009-06-05T12:27:37.868+01:00How do you say "crap" in Chinese?
I rea...How do you say "crap" in Chinese?<br /><br />I read yesterday that Prague is taking American porn jobs. The nerve of it all.<br /><br />All we need to do is plant more federal money trees on the White House lawn and keep the unicorns from eating them. Problem solved.<br /><br />You people have no understanding of how an economy works.<br /><br />Gordo? He's about to explain why he prefers sex with subway trannies over the last 4 years which is just too weird for me. Short sterling. Below 1.61 that is.<br /><br />You should all start drinking earlier in the day. Just crack one open at work, nobody will notice.<br /><br />When the balloon goes up, we'll meet and defend the Reagan Library in Simi Valley. Great location for defense from zombies.Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71274311670522121442009-06-05T10:26:27.372+01:002009-06-05T10:26:27.372+01:00Chuckling I am not. Some sleep would be good howev...Chuckling I am not. Some sleep would be good however. The last six pence spike looks like it may be emergency hedging, or just the proverbial blow off top. A trip down past one sixty looks like selling. Euro appears to be at resistance and crude may tell the story. Thanks for the sterling hedge unwind scoop. That's why I pay my membership dues.H(oratio)noreply@blogger.com