tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4132046651024636946..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A Tale of Two CBsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8378090007880663622008-07-02T03:13:00.000+01:002008-07-02T03:13:00.000+01:00corey, you are reading wrong the gold market, in t...corey, you are reading wrong the gold market, in the last 2 weeks currency volatility has diminished and gold has started to rise in all currencies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22506612600387711452008-07-01T21:48:00.000+01:002008-07-01T21:48:00.000+01:00anon,if i have my personal timing correct, tomorro...anon,<BR/><BR/>if i have my personal timing correct, tomorrow will be the last day to pick up size in yen at a good price. i have 9350-9400 (sept) zone as a target during the next 24 hrs...after which we start heading higher very quickly. i also have 20 handles potential higher on the sp futures tomorrow, then that's all she wrote before a break of march lows in sp. i think your analysis on the asian block is pretty good btw.<BR/><BR/>good luck.<BR/><BR/>ps, i also have crude topping tomorrow to monday just above 144 (not to get too detailed...;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42637202438918412132008-07-01T20:21:00.000+01:002008-07-01T20:21:00.000+01:00Corey, Do you wish to elaborate further on Yen lon...Corey, Do you wish to elaborate further on Yen long thesis? <BR/>I have similar ideas- While I think the inflationary pressures will begin to subside or at least remain tempered down in the Developed countries because of the pressure sagging economic conditions put(esp. US), but I don't think the 'slowdown' in the EM's will materialize on as big of a level as some expect. Esp. in Asia, the consistent inflationary pressures, will force them to adjust towards domestic spending etc. and this should lead to more trade on a regional level. Japan should benifit from that, and if interest rates can tick a little bit higher there, I think a lot of importers/exporters in the Asian region might wanna use Yen instead of dollar as the currency of choice. This will help Japan relieve itself of its reliance on US-<BR/><BR/>this is the only way JYen makes a trip low 80's as I think it will, If however Japanese remain in the same economic state as they are now, they will probably heavily intervene in mid 90's. <BR/><BR/>either way, I do expect JYEN short term to make a trip to 110-114, and that's where I see better risk/rewards to begin a build up of a long Yen position.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91728403984269867122008-07-01T13:58:00.000+01:002008-07-01T13:58:00.000+01:00With regards to gold, being an experienced trader ...With regards to gold, being an experienced trader in the market, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the possible weakness ahead in the metals. Even though I think dollar weakness will likely play out near term, and my bet is 20% more to go in the Yen, gold might succumb to sympathy selling if crude starts to slide...that is a big if near term, but medium term the rise in defaults and the credit contraction will absolutley put pressure downward on inflation. I'm not saying gold can't try to tag $1,000 again, but gold won't be a homerun trade. I started rebuying yen at 103 per USD and have been hit for 550 ticks, but I doubled down at 108 and now believe Yen is on a road to the 80's. Unfortunately I tend to watch the market now All Night Long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91952208904168513692008-07-01T12:18:00.000+01:002008-07-01T12:18:00.000+01:00D,My wife came from Russia, and I know that cultur...D,<BR/><BR/>My wife came from Russia, and I know that cultural type very well. :)<BR/><BR/>CP,<BR/><BR/>Yes they did raise the duty (effective August 01, I believe). It matters not to the buyer, they will pay the same price, but the beleagured Russian oil companies (basically, the government gets almost everything over 30 USD a barrel) and their shareholders will feel the effects.<BR/><BR/>Not too long ago, the Russian government said that they wanted to reduce taxes on oil companies to encourage exploration and production, but no government can top Russia when it comes to saying one thing and doing the opposite.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23527033570313557952008-07-01T11:48:00.000+01:002008-07-01T11:48:00.000+01:00I love your rants on Russia...LOLRussians just lik...I love your rants on Russia...LOL<BR/><BR/>Russians just like to fight, it is in their nature. I would know, my girlfriend was born there!<BR/><BR/>My 2 cents on gold is that the goldbugs still aren't satisfied and as this global smackdown shifts into the next gear the money needs to find somewhere to go. The US treasury has a lot of gold and we know Paulsen knows how to trade!<BR/><BR/>:)Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09501392241484422000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14751889033601610342008-07-01T11:44:00.000+01:002008-07-01T11:44:00.000+01:00YOur call on the stock markets turning out to be s...YOur call on the stock markets turning out to be spot on.....and as I have said before: all roads lead to gold (for now). Simple rule of thumb that still works.golden alcuzinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15636995995413356537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71561100250160987452008-07-01T09:52:00.000+01:002008-07-01T09:52:00.000+01:00Hi Macroman,I read this morning that the Russians ...Hi Macroman,<BR/><BR/>I read this morning that the Russians are to kick energy consumers while they're down by raising the export duty on crude oil to $494.90/tonne from $390.10.<BR/><BR/>This and the TNK-BP battle are more examples of Russians doing whatever they can to screw the West. It really amazes me why anyone would want to park cash in that country given its history!<BR/><BR/>Love the blog - keep up the good work! I share your frustration with CrossYen!<BR/><BR/>CPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com