tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4120449157795405445..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Ruh-roh Raggy, or I Love It When a Plan Comes TogetherMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47739821404070701042014-12-16T12:14:55.683+00:002014-12-16T12:14:55.683+00:00Take a peek at EURNOK, it looks kind of like a pan...Take a peek at EURNOK, it looks kind of like a panicky contagion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79962728330644150372014-12-16T01:29:10.323+00:002014-12-16T01:29:10.323+00:00Quite so. We now have a new and bold central banke...Quite so. We now have a new and bold central banker to talk about, MM: Elvira, Mistress of the Dark!<br /><br />Interesting that Citi and JPM are already whining that this bazooka isn't enough. It worked for Paul Volcker. One wonders if certain US banks have an FX desk that is going to get an arse transplant over the next few days! Note that a certain leader recently snuggled with Modi in India and other world leaders who will no doubt think it's loads of fun to buy lot and lots of bonds at 17% and see some US banks get squeezed. Don't underestimate the Russians, or the other emerging countries.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29222728400506887912014-12-16T00:59:12.979+00:002014-12-16T00:59:12.979+00:00thanks for ur thts LB - funny that despite the dif...thanks for ur thts LB - funny that despite the difference of opinion on everything else, I actually do like (and own) RSX calls as well - some lottery tickets are way too cheap to not own!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9398673237370350972014-12-16T00:51:57.318+00:002014-12-16T00:51:57.318+00:00Spoos will rally this week into the end of the yea...Spoos will rally this week into the end of the year, sooner or later, likely at the expense of Treasuries. I believe the rally will be given the green light by Yellen on Wednesday, although it may be front run tomorrow by the usual suspects. After the New Year, as they say, is another story entirely.<br /><br />Russia has just unleashed its own bazooka, raising rates to 17%, which will make tomorrow's trading interesting to say the least.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/251541/post-251541" rel="nofollow"> Russia Tries Shock and Awe </a><br /><br />Might not have been the best timing to be taunting about Gazprom today, chaps. We bought a truck load of RSX calls today, along with EEM and EWZ calls, although we haven't added to equity positions in a long time. Better to be lucky than good I always say, b/c obviously I am a complete tool.<br /><br />Hope Sydney gets back to normal soon, lovely city, wonderful people.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64030203163594383132014-12-16T00:47:10.270+00:002014-12-16T00:47:10.270+00:00washed up, cross-asset correlations makes sense un...washed up, cross-asset correlations makes sense until they don't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37342690942738323982014-12-15T21:10:02.713+00:002014-12-15T21:10:02.713+00:00LB - with all due respect to your obvious insightf...LB - with all due respect to your obvious insightfullness, I will take the other side of most of what you said.<br />The reason this mkt believes 'considerable time' will be removed thereby advertising a hawkish tilt, is because hilsenrath outed it, and he has had a near perfect record at this - now its reasonable to suggest that they could be freaking out with a 4% pull back in the spoos in the last 5 days, but their reaction function based on the last bloodbath is more of the order of 6-8%. They are more likely, in all their academic glory, to think of the crude decline as stimulative and look past the short term inflation implications.<br />Also, I find the idea that the dollar will get hammered the same time that EM and energy rally in a back to risk mode but spoos find a reason not to go up while US 10 Y keeps a bid to it, as a tad inconsistent. <br />So - respect your contrarian thoughts, but doubt nows the time and place. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29008244758434229722014-12-15T20:50:44.927+00:002014-12-15T20:50:44.927+00:00Way cheaper.... Than yesterday....Way cheaper.... Than yesterday....TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15290073074550889562014-12-15T20:44:45.683+00:002014-12-15T20:44:45.683+00:00So is Gazprom cheap yet?So is Gazprom cheap yet?Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33530251605424311472014-12-15T20:12:03.291+00:002014-12-15T20:12:03.291+00:00OK... It's collapse... AmenOK... It's collapse... AmenTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74074490620816985762014-12-15T18:22:02.611+00:002014-12-15T18:22:02.611+00:00Hello folks, Well plan A for the 'That shouldn...Hello folks, Well plan A for the 'That shouldn't have happened " equity and positional wash out has world a treat. Picking a bottom for oil hasn't. As the game of breath holding with producers carries on. I hope that some of those shale producers are free divers.<br /><br />So quelle maintenant? Towels, bathwater and many other things appear to have been chucked.<br /><br />It's interesting to note that 2014 is ending the way it started. With the mood on EM calling for disaster based on USD expectations in rates and usd fx. <br /><br />Smells like Teen spirit is getting carried away. I Am going to buy some stock stuff. <br /><br />Buy buy. Pol. <br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2643151593164820492014-12-15T18:10:55.896+00:002014-12-15T18:10:55.896+00:00As excess liquidity has been the driver of market ...As excess liquidity has been the driver of market action over the past 3-4 years, I am skeptical that you can get a massive squeeze higher in EUR. The prospect of ECB sovereign QE in Q1 makes me think that RM will use pops to hedge and that parity with USD will be achieved in late-2016. This is an acceptable political outcome as well, b/c a stronger dollar is acceptable to US voters and helps EU exports (which are a greater portion GDP than in the US).<br /><br />I do however think that calls in EWW and EWZ are intersting to play an EM bounce.CJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16649174546934827882014-12-15T16:50:59.045+00:002014-12-15T16:50:59.045+00:00Agreed with you completely on Dalio, "C"...Agreed with you completely on Dalio, "C". NOw, to keep things simple, it's all about the USD and that's all about the Fed.<br /><br />Almost every active trade today seems to be totally predicated on FOMC changing the language this week. I suggest that this will not happen and that everyone who has a highly leveraged trade of the form [Long USD-Short X] is going to take a bath later on this week, as the already weakening DXY rally terminates abruptly as Queen of the Doves Dame Janet coos softly in the market's ear.<br /><br />This might be an opportune time to look at buying calls in a host of vehicles that are currently being hated on, even as the last of the lemmings stream into the dollar. Leaving crude oil aside (but looking at rock-solid things like Statoil, TOT and BP), there are very cheap options in silver, EEM and EWZ, to give just a few examples of the oversold and the heavily shorted. <br /><br />If you think about this for any length of time, you can see that what has happened this year has been a pas de deux between Draghi and Yellen, with Kuroda playing the music. EUR was being talked down close to 1,20 by Draghi's bazooka talk even as USD was jawboned higher towards 90 by Fedspeak and the media. However, neither of them is going to do a damn thing at the moment b/c they don't have to. Their aims having already been achieved, they will now do nothing. <br /><br />A move that is not implausible from here is a quite substantial retracement of the giant move up in DXY this year from 80 to near 90, so 84-85 seems a likely target. EURUSD 1,3200? If this is even close to correct then we are soon going to see an absolutely gigantic squeeze in some assets, starting before the end of the year and going into the Spring. Spoos would not be one of those, however.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86547350721114869672014-12-15T16:48:14.376+00:002014-12-15T16:48:14.376+00:00Sell Programs are now Cascading. Someone kicked of...Sell Programs are now Cascading. Someone kicked off the Fireworks, an Institution of course, and Now They Are ALL HITTING SELLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72361816897154614702014-12-15T16:22:05.661+00:002014-12-15T16:22:05.661+00:00RUB getting destroyed. This is worrying
Nico, hav...RUB getting destroyed. This is worrying<br /><br />Nico, have a good holiday. I always enjoy your thoughts. I've traded europe but since i dont live there, its different. It certainly is a different beast vs the US. Actually trades technically much better, IMO<br /><br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54597876470128553142014-12-15T14:54:02.462+00:002014-12-15T14:54:02.462+00:00C Says,
Quote..
"If you look at capitalism,&q...C Says,<br />Quote..<br />"If you look at capitalism," Dalio said, "it's the spread that is the transmission mechanism: everybody's looking for spread. And it's that spread that makes lending go through<br /><br />Boys and Girls ,this man should be compulsory reading in your curriculum.<br />I think it sia truism that really bright people can take quite complex issues and explain them very simply. Dalio is really really bright.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70530531437878182312014-12-15T14:39:41.573+00:002014-12-15T14:39:41.573+00:002 Year Swap rate does not imply any fin stress wit...2 Year Swap rate does not imply any fin stress within the system...yet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20674245477647979372014-12-15T14:07:08.894+00:002014-12-15T14:07:08.894+00:00JUNK goes no bid...
http://imgur.com/4MUI5xwJUNK goes no bid...<br /><br />http://imgur.com/4MUI5xwAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69606291661323604542014-12-15T14:03:47.573+00:002014-12-15T14:03:47.573+00:00There goes Mexico...
http://imgur.com/WRLdNTO
Oi...There goes Mexico...<br /><br />http://imgur.com/WRLdNTO<br /><br />Oil...destroying one socialist nation at a time. I wonder if the US will bail out Mexico as it did in 1995.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51577969911185902472014-12-15T13:38:25.128+00:002014-12-15T13:38:25.128+00:00Nico,
I would say that probability of finding the...Nico,<br /><br />I would say that probability of finding the 180 votes in the third round is 10%, and in the first round (i.e. on the 17th) 0.1%. It would only be a risk event if indeed a miracle happens and 180 votes are found on the first round (again, extremely unlikely because even if you are sitting on the fence you know you can wait until the third round with no consequences). In that case, European markets will probably recover last week's losses instantly. But I think it's even less likely than Germany volunteering to do full blown QE on their own.thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50344581947792054032014-12-15T06:35:17.271+00:002014-12-15T06:35:17.271+00:00i have traded Europe successfully for 20 years i ...i have traded Europe successfully for 20 years i do not give a flying fuck if you guys agree with my views or not especially if you post as 'anonymous'. Do us a favor and register a name here if you want to engage.<br /><br />from Edward Hugh<br /><br />" The reason for the market panic is that should the Greek Parliament be unable to summon sufficient votes for the government candidate for president to be approved in the final vote on 29 December, then general elections would become inevitable. If elections are held then there is a significant possibility that the radical left coalition – Syriza – would win, and in that eventuality some sort of confrontation or stand-off with the EU Commission and the Troika would become inevitable."<br /><br />so technically theta you are right but in my head i have the 17th as an event risk nevertheless, i dubbed it an election albeit being a parliament do.<br /><br />good luck for this week and for 2015 i am done posting here.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82932885252884866872014-12-15T01:21:25.494+00:002014-12-15T01:21:25.494+00:00First priority...
Australia's central bank sa...First priority...<br /><br />Australia's central bank says staff locked down in Sydney HQ, all safe and accounted for RBAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36155860282781343332014-12-14T22:11:38.170+00:002014-12-14T22:11:38.170+00:00yes - we are.
you happy now?yes - we are.<br />you happy now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68288752719656585142014-12-14T15:35:34.729+00:002014-12-14T15:35:34.729+00:00Middle East stock markets rout - 3% - 7.5% in pani...Middle East stock markets rout - 3% - 7.5% in panic selling. Much drama as crude fallout obviously reverberating across global markets.<br /><br />We are immune from this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44041568665460329682014-12-13T21:25:03.782+00:002014-12-13T21:25:03.782+00:00Nico, you are welcome to join the socialists...goo...Nico, you are welcome to join the socialists...good luckAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13369733614633661942014-12-12T22:54:52.593+00:002014-12-12T22:54:52.593+00:00Can i wait one more day??? Wtf....
Mrt... I see a ...Can i wait one more day??? Wtf....<br />Mrt... I see a lot of distress.... Maybe you're US based and you see other price action but take a look to EUR carry trade implosionTheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.com