tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4071295261312751003..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: If I Could Turn Back TimeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86139765258972222412014-10-27T06:22:35.556+00:002014-10-27T06:22:35.556+00:00meanwhile.. RUB 42
tut tutmeanwhile.. RUB 42<br /><br />tut tutNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5403136440322434872014-10-26T18:30:49.757+00:002014-10-26T18:30:49.757+00:00yeah they tried so hard to avoid a 'Israel on ...yeah they tried so hard to avoid a 'Israel on Iran' $148 kingdom of fear that they ended up pressing the other way.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85248660514338705272014-10-26T01:20:20.779+01:002014-10-26T01:20:20.779+01:00Oil. Go back to June. Any newsflow on ISIS or Ukra...Oil. Go back to June. Any newsflow on ISIS or Ukraine was sold. Libya civil war, fighting near Libyan oil fields, rockey struck some tanker? Oil sold. I'm talking about as the news happened. Back when supply was tight and any newsflow came on Iran, Libya or Syria it was an easy dollar upside. First attack on Baji refinery in Iraq? Sold. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32699294480531185402014-10-25T20:27:32.195+01:002014-10-25T20:27:32.195+01:00Has anyone considered that the drop in oil prices ...Has anyone considered that the drop in oil prices and commodities was an "engineered" event, timed to coincide with the end of QE and POMO's?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14380882336770342452014-10-24T20:41:27.357+01:002014-10-24T20:41:27.357+01:00Agree LB, having flagrantly nicked your point on T...Agree LB, having flagrantly nicked your point on The Economist Cover and made it my own (in the way so celebrated on X-factor .." you just took that song and made it and made it your own" which does beg the question about copywriter theft but anyway)...<br /><br />Anyway having nicked it and made it my own I wrote a load of gumph around it that basically ended up saying "BUY EURUSD". The post can be found at the other place. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12257090136749671682014-10-24T20:33:16.340+01:002014-10-24T20:33:16.340+01:00"What Mr. T said is definitely correct, howev..."What Mr. T said is definitely correct, however aren't those factors already "priced in"?"<br /><br />This is in fact my point, and the EURUSD chart might just be beginning to show that others agree with me. This is another of those infamous TWINE ("The world is not ending") trades. Btw, if anyone thinks there will be big negative surprises in the ECB bank stress tests, then I have a small European principality to sell you.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12564298110199488272014-10-24T19:29:46.243+01:002014-10-24T19:29:46.243+01:00C Says,
Perhaps one should not be looking at the p...C Says,<br />Perhaps one should not be looking at the past few months ,but the future years? Then some consolidation from the past few months looks rational in terms of expecting continuation.<br />I do of course acknowledge the 5 minute macro world we live in.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75242008910339821952014-10-24T19:16:14.641+01:002014-10-24T19:16:14.641+01:00What Mr. T said is definitely correct, however are...What Mr. T said is definitely correct, however aren't those factors already "priced in"? I do not have a good measurement, but it looks like that theme had been around for several months now. <br /><br />LB's prediction on the US weak data is still too early to tell. Probably the picture is clearer by the end of this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34898020091087462722014-10-24T18:22:39.347+01:002014-10-24T18:22:39.347+01:00C Says,
"But isn't the DX trade based not...C Says,<br />"But isn't the DX trade based not so much on who is soft and soggy but who is softer and soggier?"<br />Exactement, mon ami!!<br />Which is why LB is wrong and Yellen will not win this race.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27018625410446757732014-10-24T17:52:04.017+01:002014-10-24T17:52:04.017+01:00We think that once the world views the soft and so...<i>We think that once the world views the soft and soggy reality beneath the US Emperor's suit of new clothes, investors will rotate out of US growth stories and into (emerging) markets that offer better value, higher yields and more genuine growth stories.</i><br /><br />But isn't the DX trade based not so much on who is soft and soggy but who is softer and soggier? Europe is really in a mess, and its not clear at all at least to this punter what will get them out. At least in the US there are bright spots.<br /><br />I think the long dollar trades will continue to work. Outside of some mean reversion bets there are not really catalysts I see for eur,gbp,yen strength, but the catalysts for weakness are numerous.<br /><br />It might be a crowded trade but I'm nibbling short some ED and ZN's as well. The risk of some kind of 1987 washout and dramatic flight to safety seems to have come and gone. (Sorry Nico) Baseline here is US stays slow and steady, decoupling hypothesis comes back. Too much vol in spoos to make directional bets.<br /><br />Lastly about XHB and housing in general I think its overwatched, last cycles catalyst, etc. Housing goes through long periods of nothing, and its not the engine of growth its hyped up as. The real US growth engines are energy, startups, ag etc. Plus there is some interesting research out on the correlation of student loan debt to home ownership - basically previous generations of buyers would get out of college and be able to afford a home + pay off student debt, whereas now an increasing number are barely able to pay off the student debt. (And no, the answer here is not lower mortgage rates...). I think the point is that there are some real secular headwinds housing is fighting against.<br /><br /><br /><br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62903448353048252512014-10-24T16:31:56.234+01:002014-10-24T16:31:56.234+01:00Punters still in love with the US recovery and the...Punters still in love with the US recovery and the USD rally might want to consider today's new home sales data, complete with downward revisions going back to May, and gaze upon the chart of the XHB. If housing is indeed the engine of the recovery, why is this one of the most bearish charts you can find?<br /><br />While not in the camp that expects and eagerly anticipates another 2008-style Big One, LB is moderately bearish Spoos, but much more bearish DX. We think that once the world views the soft and soggy reality beneath the US Emperor's suit of new clothes, investors will rotate out of US growth stories and into (emerging) markets that offer better value, higher yields and more genuine growth stories. This will also revive a host of dollar hedging strategies that have been left for dead by the side of the road "with a spike right though my head..."<br /><br />On the topic of the Greenback, when Yellen says "we are not selling any bonds", what she really means is "we are not selling any bonds, and there is no effing way I can raise rates, so don't go getting asshole long USD here, because that would slow the US economy". <br /><br />The intent of CBs is a) to keep rates low and b) to try to pin FX into ranges that can then be tweaked occasionally to prevent deflation in one area or another. Hence DX is going to be constrained between 75 and 90 for years and years ahead, EURUSD between 1,20 and 1,40 etc...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5817317703260567092014-10-24T15:40:33.360+01:002014-10-24T15:40:33.360+01:00Mr T, going back to your point about how do you ge...Mr T, going back to your point about how do you get companies to spend (and demand for loans, so banks can lend aside for buybacks and divi recaps) it is all about top line growth, and to a lesser extent capacity utilization, IMO <br /><br />If CEO's see improving top line growth, they will invest, otherwise they are happy to sit and buyback stock to increase EPS. DRAM and Airlines are a perfect example again of industries that were once known as hyper cyclical but now seem to be much more conservative in their spending. There is no irrational exuberance by those companies CEO's quite the contrary they are all about maximizing margins now. <br /><br />Software is one of the few places where talent and money still flows with little regard to margins/ profitability (biotech, clean tech are others). But the rewards from animal spirits in those markets go to mostly well educated and richer ppl anyways, so it doesnt help the bottom class and they just spend it on million dollar NYC/Miami/Malibu apartments with little effect on the economy overall<br /><br />All the asset price inflation stays within a fairly well defined segment of the population. It doesnt trickle down. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2260741923283796962014-10-24T15:24:44.952+01:002014-10-24T15:24:44.952+01:00good stuff:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/1...good stuff:<br /><br />http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/10/what-is-different-about-this-market.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71294423567350453932014-10-24T13:36:38.737+01:002014-10-24T13:36:38.737+01:00C Says,
I get the suoer quick liquidation and it&#...C Says,<br />I get the suoer quick liquidation and it's even quicker recovery ,I do. Zero to do with anything ,but fast twitch muscles ,and those in question are not between the ears if they are pushed for holding purposes. I say that because the standout for me this earnings season is just how many of the big blues known as Buffets moats, are in trouble. Most of this stuff would in the past have been the place to go for defensive moves against broader overpricing issues. This time they don't fulfil that criteria unless one is blind. The world is changing and some of them have not changed with it fast enough.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35026756712943780122014-10-24T09:05:44.676+01:002014-10-24T09:05:44.676+01:00Or daring do even yogi.Or daring do even yogi.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68341534933773990582014-10-24T09:05:05.923+01:002014-10-24T09:05:05.923+01:00C Says
The V is in so now we get the choppy disagr...C Says<br />The V is in so now we get the choppy disagreement has last time shorts meet latecomers recovering their dating do.<br />Dare say most gaps in equity opened down have been filled more or less.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57378451862532669842014-10-24T09:04:53.773+01:002014-10-24T09:04:53.773+01:00C Says
The V is in so now we get the choppy disagr...C Says<br />The V is in so now we get the choppy disagreement has last time shorts meet latecomers recovering their dating do.<br />Dare say most gaps in equity opened down have been filled more or less.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18844546827389102542014-10-24T01:01:54.057+01:002014-10-24T01:01:54.057+01:00Russia’s economy, the sanctions, and especially fi...Russia’s economy, the sanctions, and especially finance, with Putin’s advisor & other Russian economics & finance experts:<br /><br />Sergey Glazyev (S.G)<br /><br />Khazin Mikhail Leonidovich (M.L)<br /><br />Vladimir Yuryevich Levchenko (V.Y)<br /><br />It’s 1hr 20mins, fairly technical and detailed.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CH4Pcgoi3eEAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42136423293863328522014-10-23T22:34:11.015+01:002014-10-23T22:34:11.015+01:00Heard today in the Ursine Club on Pall Mall.
&q...Heard today in the Ursine Club on Pall Mall. <br /><br />"Waiter? Bring me another resistance, this ones broken"Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24518665030488318302014-10-23T22:18:37.983+01:002014-10-23T22:18:37.983+01:00Traders back to heavily net short the 10-year Trea...Traders back to heavily net short the 10-year Treasury. Goldman is also still recommending clients short US notes...<br /><br />http://imgur.com/fYNsLsLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1539966505051900762014-10-23T19:58:04.539+01:002014-10-23T19:58:04.539+01:00A very sore bottom for Mr Shorty today, as the SPX...A very sore bottom for Mr Shorty today, as the SPX train has just pulled into 1960 station.... the 1960-1965 and then 1980 area would represent the last major technical hurdles ahead of Mr Market here.<br /><br />These retracements can be a real bitch.... the 50% and 61.8% fibs have already been left in the dust.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10504369108727536902014-10-23T19:04:21.371+01:002014-10-23T19:04:21.371+01:00Apple are a prime example. They suck money out of...Apple are a prime example. They suck money out of the system when discretionary spend goes on apps, iTunes etc. 500 bln or whatever they have sitting in an untaxed bank account. Borrow for stock buybacks. I've no problem with them operating in the most efficient way possible but, the money suck is where a big problem lies for the economy. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58685182956613863542014-10-23T18:45:26.570+01:002014-10-23T18:45:26.570+01:00Mr T - I am glad that you suggest that the blockag...Mr T - I am glad that you suggest that the blockage is no longer with the banks but with big corporates. The next down he chain. I fully agree. <br />I think the venom and retribution that has so far been held only for bankers is moving downwards to encompass large corporate in general. <br /><br />I am looking forward to the same stimuli through regulation and punishment to hit the huge balance sheets of large corporates and hopefully the same threats and cap to board pay. I see the chairman of Tesco is walking of with £10m. That should be enough to light the peasant fires! <br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83932950247253105652014-10-23T17:50:08.238+01:002014-10-23T17:50:08.238+01:00Interesting historical comments MM
Jim Grant has ...Interesting historical comments MM<br /><br />Jim Grant has been making the point for many years about the difference between debt deflation (ala Irving Fischer) and price deflation (ala lower everyday price at Wal Mart). Academics and CB's staff seem to have a hard time dissenting the two and it has led to the current hysteria over deflation. <br /><br />Its also interesting to note that there are many different types of inflation, asset inflation, CPI inflation (which is based on a basket not all of us would feel is representative) and the ex Food and Energy Inflation which apparently doesnt count, and of course the two big ones, Wage inflation and Inflation Expectations. <br /><br />On the latter it seems CB's will pretty much do anything to see a little (but not too much) of wage and expectations increase with little regard to the other types of inflation. Add in a global labour force, 2 tiered technology workforce and overcapacity in China and the dynamics seem pretty hard for most to grasp, myself included. <br /><br />Gold isnt coming back as the center of the system (although it role in stabilizing imbalances is simplistic and purse, the ajdustments are something no government today will accept) but I think it might still play a role in investors portfolio. Wheather that means gold will be higher next year for now, who knows, but in 20 years I would expect that the yellow metal keeps up with general asset prices and ALSO provides a decent hedge against CB mistakes. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79703555517529779562014-10-23T17:46:01.431+01:002014-10-23T17:46:01.431+01:00UNP is a great case study for the fed - their busi...UNP is a great case study for the fed - their business is going gangbusters, their customers are getting squeezed from capacity problems, profits are good and still capex is muted relative to historical spend, having real impact on the ability of their customers - industrial America, to move products. The fed has no problems seeing transmission problems in finance - the need to get banks to lend being integral to the economy as a whole. But how to get UNP et al to redirect some of their buyback+div into capex to unclog the rail congestion everyone is complaining about? Is this because of too much consolidation creating cartels with not enough incentive to compete? Is it because management does not believe in the recovery enough to invest? Last q capex was $1158 vs $1272 spent on capex+div with an increase in debt of ~$650.<br /><br />Given the amount of time spent studying the transmission mechanisms in financial sector, and the amount of policy targeting it, it's surprising to me that more time is not spent trying to affect mgmt capex decisions. I'm not suggesting there is anything inherently wrong with UNP choices, but that if the goal is to incentivize growth creation something is wrong. Should buybacks be less tax efficient? Accelerated depreciation schedules? Given the current landscape I cant see how a corp-targeted QE4 would change the situation - it would only result in higher leverages in the capital structure.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.com