tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4009068821297823676..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Policymaker DraftMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18985500526957548142010-04-27T02:52:56.049+01:002010-04-27T02:52:56.049+01:00Give Maggie Thatcher a break, she's already ne...Give Maggie Thatcher a break, she's already nearing the last stages of Alzheimer's. As for the Greek crisis, erm, in typical European fashion, everyone's shrugging shoulders and throwing their hands up - think French crossed with Italian and some steely German determination not to be dragged down. Second the Portugal alert, in fact, add Spain and a host of Eastern European ??? and you have a terrible summer coming up , terrible for Europe, may be play time for predators elsewhere.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45956169103976914252010-04-26T18:00:23.668+01:002010-04-26T18:00:23.668+01:00I'm surprised the EUR hasn't plummeted mor...I'm surprised the EUR hasn't plummeted more than it already has. Should be an interesting couple of weeks to say the least.<br /><br />Chris<br />http://realistsociety.comAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09790623460215675522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9014787139507021622010-04-26T15:34:08.320+01:002010-04-26T15:34:08.320+01:00On the Monday comment; I can't wait to see wha...On the Monday comment; I can't wait to see what the talking heads say when one of these mondays breaks the streak and we have a significantly down MondayRiverTraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01618843800216753116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36167157039940468692010-04-26T15:18:56.567+01:002010-04-26T15:18:56.567+01:00I find myself wondering about tangential phenomena...I find myself wondering about tangential phenomena; that perhaps it is not only the public but hedge funds that are finding the U.S. (equities) more interesting than the Greek tradgedy or pardon, the Brits upcoming mashup. I'm seeing the US long-only funds have used almost all of their cash to go long; I find myself asking "who exactly is buying" in the meltup now? Carry unwind? (which rationally should have the opposite effect) Or is it that the CNBC permabulls are just so entertaining that the world is throwing their money at the US markets?RiverTraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01618843800216753116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42189380088056185012010-04-26T14:59:27.776+01:002010-04-26T14:59:27.776+01:00You don't like Dennis "Kneale and Squeal&...You don't like Dennis "Kneale and Squeal"...?<br /><br />RF - duly noted, agreed on short term outlook.<br /><br />Skippy - Greece definitely seems "contained", doesn't it? We'll see whether Portugal stays "contained". The big kahuna is Spain, and exposure to its housing market and banking sector. Someone is selling dollars and yen to support the Euro. For the time being, at least...Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60820915739429611342010-04-26T14:57:04.532+01:002010-04-26T14:57:04.532+01:00Maybe its just because Voldemort has not pulled hi...Maybe its just because Voldemort has not pulled his bid yet.Nichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63795076735460266952010-04-26T13:46:32.552+01:002010-04-26T13:46:32.552+01:00That's kinda my point - sub-prime was also wel...That's kinda my point - sub-prime was also well flagged in 2007. Under the circumstances, I am not sure why the EUR is still trading at a 10% to 15% valuation premium to the dollar. <br /><br />US earnings have been surprisingly good over the past few quarters, but it will be interesting to see how profits fare once the inventory and fiscal contribution fades.Skippyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11603237350911072406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52147596501853351792010-04-26T13:35:32.244+01:002010-04-26T13:35:32.244+01:00Perception Is Very Positive Again to Start New Wee...Perception Is Very Positive Again to Start New Week ----- The call on Friday was to remain short post Europe’s close and not respect an early new high stop, that proved painful and I have moved to the sidelines. The framework to begin the week is very constructive, both Asia and European risk assets trade strong. A noted sell side house raised their SP500 target to 1350 based on 13.5x 2011 earnings of $100 that includes a positive top line sales argument. Earnings – Whirlpool + 10% and Caterpillar +3% -- echo the u/g and suggest more are coming. Three noted M&A deals alongside the Citigroup announcement highlight that capital markets are wide open. SP Emini positioning per the CFTC data late Friday illustrate the largest index short since Oct 2008 (Lehman collapse) and trading volume was the highest of the year last week. Point being, the concern of tightening (FOMC meeting Wed), Sovereign spread widening or immanent Financial reform is falling on deaf ears again. As a reminder, Monday is the strongest day of the week over the last quarter and includes the most index point contribution.<br /><br />PS -- Left Back, there should be no confusion. I did not change my trading bias. I was stopped out of a view and moved to a sideline. The above note is reporting the news, i.e. repeating what professionals are talking about today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73498161038074416572010-04-26T13:21:02.068+01:002010-04-26T13:21:02.068+01:00Oh, it's totally climbing a wall of worry at t...Oh, it's totally climbing a wall of worry at this point. And Greece? That's so yesterday. Check out Portugal now. 5 yr.....wheee..<br /><br />Strangely enough, my "word verification" below is "cheatemu".Ivanovich71https://www.blogger.com/profile/10153891356703804430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65021896193119516832010-04-26T12:54:25.812+01:002010-04-26T12:54:25.812+01:00Is anyone else surprised that a likely debt restru...Is anyone else surprised that a likely debt restructuring (default) within the euro is not having a greater impact on risk assets in Europe? It kinda feels like early 2007 when sub-prime was 'contained' ...Or am I missing something?Skippyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11603237350911072406noreply@blogger.com