tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post4005882069065031840..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: For Frack's SakeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68188925829457698512020-11-26T03:32:52.957+00:002020-11-26T03:32:52.957+00:00What's up, yeah this paragraph is genuinely ni...What's up, yeah this paragraph is genuinely nice and I have learned lot of things from it concerning blogging. thanks.erectile dysfunction medicationshttps://besterectiledysfunctionpills.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56826213029276560662020-11-26T03:31:12.056+00:002020-11-26T03:31:12.056+00:00Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it...Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?mens ed pillshttps://erectiledysfunctionpillscvs.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51165241075880456952012-05-01T13:55:40.987+01:002012-05-01T13:55:40.987+01:00If your out-there, TMM...maybe some insights in re...If your out-there, TMM...maybe some insights in regard to HF shorting Core-EZ bonds...any latemail?<br /><br />- Reverse way of betting on Euro-Bonds if-when implemented?<br /><br />Apart from yields being at historical lows.<br /><br />The world is going to find out this week if the US averages have finally succumbed to the illusion of promised prosperity through QE past-present-but but but....Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35900349344860011822012-04-29T11:22:37.715+01:002012-04-29T11:22:37.715+01:00While I agree the ruble is good to short, the shor...While I agree the ruble is good to short, the short is not that obvious as the rather manipulative Russian credit to gdp graph implies, with taking 96 as the base where, Russia didn't have a financial sector at all.<br /><br />Russia's sov debt to gdp is 10% and private companies (many of them quasi sov) are around 100%, consumer credit is around 10-20%. <br /><br />Considering the above, don't see much sense in presenting the data in the format you did, as one could start thinking Russia is heavily overleveraged in contrast to peers, while in reality it has still one of the lowest credit to gdp ratiosAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1549956227938330622012-04-29T10:53:54.275+01:002012-04-29T10:53:54.275+01:00Unkown - you are right. Shale gas often comes with...Unkown - you are right. Shale gas often comes with some liquids which has led to a big increase in oil production. TMM aren't sure that is as long term a trend as gas but it sure is helping in the interim.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91115219555593273162012-04-28T01:55:15.755+01:002012-04-28T01:55:15.755+01:00TMM, one other aspect to the US energy equation yo...TMM, one other aspect to the US energy equation you forgot: US domestic oil production. It has recently reached levels not seen since around 2000, and it is headed higher. Current production is around 6.1 million barrels/day, and it is easily going to 7 million barrels/day within the next 2-3 years or so. Eight million barrels/day is not out of the question either, and some are beginning to speculate it could match its 1970 high sometime within the next 10 years.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W" rel="nofollow">EIA Data</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24330684072124754172012-04-28T00:42:18.972+01:002012-04-28T00:42:18.972+01:00Abee.. yes our friends at BCA kindly tweeted that ...Abee.. yes our friends at BCA kindly tweeted that they dedicated that post to us... <br /><br />They like cad/aud and we like aud/cad<br /><br />2 views make a market..Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16843754149011860082012-04-27T20:37:22.495+01:002012-04-27T20:37:22.495+01:00BCA likes CAD/AUD
http://www.bcaresearch.com/publ...BCA likes CAD/AUD<br /><br />http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20120426.GIFabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30886740310563987422012-04-27T18:42:46.971+01:002012-04-27T18:42:46.971+01:00Big moves today in the most crowded trades.... AUD...Big moves today in the most crowded trades.... AUD in particular and a decent run of AUDCAD. While TMM like the "long dollar" stuff we do trade it.... shorting a non-existent China fraud this ain't. No heroes in macro etc. <br /><br />And on Spain, quite. TMM were discussing recently that you basically need to put a few of the crappy caixa idiota types under to show them cold steel while leaning on a deposit guarantee. The strong ones are already buying back their covered bonds. Bifurcation? TMM's more educated friends in financials think so. <br /><br />As for rest of Ibex you have to wonder how much lower Telefonica can go. Stub value of the spanish biz is a 2.5x EV/EBITDA proposition once you strip out Latam and that is circa SK Tel in 2002 type valuation territory - normally a huge lift.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84118541340260471792012-04-27T17:17:41.839+01:002012-04-27T17:17:41.839+01:00If we get the full Monti we might see a BrazilianIf we get the full Monti we might see a BrazilianStevehttp://macroandcheese.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27794556094317653192012-04-27T17:14:44.294+01:002012-04-27T17:14:44.294+01:00full monti..lol
is 1 squazillion bigger than 1 br...full monti..lol<br /><br />is 1 squazillion bigger than 1 brazilian<br /><br /><br />http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/jokes/bljokebushbrazilian.htm <br /><br />for all the talk of end of eurozone/spain etc, Corporate bonds holding in very well.. I just dont get bund and schatz..abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55423503218098474122012-04-27T17:12:39.552+01:002012-04-27T17:12:39.552+01:00Further to LB's point if someone went to a cos...Further to LB's point if someone went to a costume party as the head of the ECB he would be dressed in DraghiStevehttp://macroandcheese.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6807054974114411712012-04-27T16:03:19.303+01:002012-04-27T16:03:19.303+01:00For fans of shampoo, Spanish 10y yields are making...For fans of shampoo, Spanish 10y yields are making, you know, that formation....<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10YR_ESP?countryCode=ESLeftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22379117242413565012012-04-27T15:53:51.251+01:002012-04-27T15:53:51.251+01:00JPY stronger b/c markets expected an even bigger d...JPY stronger b/c markets expected an even bigger dollop of bond buying, possibly up to 1 squazillion yen, and b/c USD weaker on soggy GDP data.<br /><br />USDJPY still executing a retrace of the huge move off the all time low at the end of January. Expect something in the 78s-79s again (a 50.0-61.8% Fib retrace) on renewed USD weakness, before BoJ acts again some time this summer?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43459586217597637362012-04-27T15:37:02.766+01:002012-04-27T15:37:02.766+01:00If Italy were to execute all of the structural ref...If Italy were to execute all of the structural reforms, would that be called: "The Full Monti"?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21938195444790219192012-04-27T15:22:22.924+01:002012-04-27T15:22:22.924+01:00Take your bets, when will German 2 year yields rea...Take your bets, when will German 2 year yields reach 0? <br /><br />Natty had a nice move the yesterday. <br /><br />Seems to me the equity buying of past few days was of the laggards getting a little bounce. We still need some follow through but you would have to say advantage bulls at this point.<br /><br />I never have understood the yen.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80431324314288453602012-04-27T15:09:35.315+01:002012-04-27T15:09:35.315+01:00Macro Bullet Points EOW
-Stopped out Dow
-BB t...Macro Bullet Points EOW<br /><br /> -Stopped out Dow<br /><br /> -BB taken to task ,why not duplicate BOJ....it's the currency stupid..but<br /><br />-Euro fudge factory new-orders rise to all-time high.<br /><br />-PMI alternate to lagging indicators for this week.<br /><br />-Betty does the rounds ( well take look , no else wants do it)<br /><br />-APPL says to the 80's Nifty 50..EAT YOUR HEART OUT!!<br /><br /> Trade Ideas<br /><br /> We'll be back.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28161455874432633312012-04-27T15:02:16.676+01:002012-04-27T15:02:16.676+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28809904646380578692012-04-27T14:05:46.277+01:002012-04-27T14:05:46.277+01:00And while we're at it, BOJ adds 100 gazillion,...And while we're at it, BOJ adds 100 gazillion, JGBs rally, and JPY falls??Stevehttp://macroandcheese.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70255953812946346562012-04-27T14:04:18.175+01:002012-04-27T14:04:18.175+01:00Hey TMM, how about getting a GDP thread going? I&...Hey TMM, how about getting a GDP thread going? I'd be interested to hear what people think.<br /><br />LB it looks like you nailed it, it's the QE baby.Stevehttp://macroandcheese.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60395097522275717082012-04-27T10:38:52.574+01:002012-04-27T10:38:52.574+01:00Great post. Thanks.
Cheers from Osaka...
johnGreat post. Thanks. <br /><br />Cheers from Osaka...<br /><br />johnAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1065518588063245282012-04-27T02:33:48.210+01:002012-04-27T02:33:48.210+01:00Jeff Gundlach's 72 chart presentation kind sum...Jeff Gundlach's 72 chart presentation kind sums up the debt story:<br /><br />http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-dundlach-getting-there-2012-4#-3<br /><br />Also note chart#31<br /><br />Top for AAPL?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40529551715521101312012-04-27T00:44:13.524+01:002012-04-27T00:44:13.524+01:00Nemo, you are loosing me here.
This was a post ab...Nemo, you are loosing me here.<br /><br />This was a post about tracking and how electrically powered cars were going to enforce the GJ arbitrage between liquid fuel and electrical generation.<br /><br />And now you say "set all driving to gas" ?<br /><br />BTW, it has been ages that the european middle class drive 50+ MPG compact diesel cars, and I didn't really see the trashing of the oil market.<br /><br />Barring some revolutionary development in battery technology, american cars improvement in MPG (which will be merely a catch-up to european standards) will just leave some fuel on the table so that the chinese can drive their cars (and as they don't have a lot of money, they will go for the cheap high MPG no hybrid fancy car).<br /><br />I don't see oil at 50$ on a sustained long term basis because long hydrocarbon molecules are really a very efficient way to solve the problem of mobile energy storage. At a 4 or 5$ price point, there is potential for various synfuel scheme to take over from dwindling natural supplies.<br /><br />This being said, the trump card is the price of greenhouse gases release. If at zero, synfuel from NG and coal will thrive ; if not, batteries may have a fighting chance but still could still be ultimately defeated by climate friendly synfuel processes (when Saudi energy minister talk about atmospheric carbon capture in their speeches, I don't think it is to put the CO2 into the ground, they probably have more in mind to turn it back to fuel using solar or nukes)Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1968349941477269782012-04-26T15:14:28.760+01:002012-04-26T15:14:28.760+01:00Folks for clarification I am talking about hybrids...Folks for clarification I am talking about hybrids here which now, in Prius C format are silly cheap. <br /><br />Plugins are still pricey and fwiw I think we'll see the high end of the market (think Tesla) go electric and the plug in side will be neither here nor there. I think its an intermediate step which is as necessary as the laser disc (Remember those LP sized DVDs?). But nonetheless if you have people buying a Prius C over a fiesta or a corolla that is huge and will righteously trash the market. <br /><br />If you want to do a Prius C versus corolla set all driving to gas and use the mileage number. only need the power input if you are charging up at home. I've done side by sides for a bunch of price points and cars and I think Tesla is right.... luxury end will switch before the punters though mileage is ripping there too.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36557932277682396252012-04-26T15:14:14.346+01:002012-04-26T15:14:14.346+01:00We are clearly back in the world of central bank a...We are clearly back in the world of central bank arb, where weak US economic data releases increase the perceived probability of further easing, and supports USTs and equities. As long as this dynamic stays in play, all those strong dollar/vigorous US recovery trades are not gonna work. US Q1 GDP tomorrow may do nothing but cement this tendency.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com