tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3982921651082150126..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Now What?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14119454765714182492011-08-08T01:27:49.291+01:002011-08-08T01:27:49.291+01:00LB, word to the wise is that it's simply simpl...LB, word to the wise is that it's simply simpler not to read, let alone quote, the site that shall not be named.<br /><br />Der Spiegel, however, has a long track record of investigative journalism, with a reputation for uncovering political misconduct. They employ the equivalent of 80 full-time fact checkers, reportedly now most likely the world's largest fact checking operation.<br /><br />These days elements within the German Finance Ministry have found a reliable vehicle to express their less palatable persuasions, almost always presaged with a Sunday leak.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87432947731771699732011-08-07T21:19:56.924+01:002011-08-07T21:19:56.924+01:00Good, They are going to do "something " ...Good, They are going to do "something " <br /><br />Haven't seen the "What" yet but Euro zone are gong to act decisively. lets have a lottery pick a choice .. a) Raid the Buba and bail out italy and spain b) introduce straight jacket mkt regs.. c) Qe3 with or without global Qe3 coordination .. 4) swap lines with PBOC and the debt holders 5) NeuMark 6) Order another sangria and arrange an emergency conference for nov 30th 2015, preferably in Bali.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50483678076265414542011-08-07T17:24:04.890+01:002011-08-07T17:24:04.890+01:00LB - the problem with the link is that the article...LB - the problem with the link is that the article has yet to be published. Seems that Dow Jones reported, without further detail, that Spiegel magazine will report on Monday that Germany (or a selected functionary therein) thinks Italy is too big to save.<br /><br />http://bit.ly/qT9HBJ<br /><br />Post back up at the Millionth Monkey.<br /><br />True or false, if Germany doesn't China must - unless they want to see shoe manufacturing reborn in Murcia.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73269595479887632802011-08-07T16:46:49.082+01:002011-08-07T16:46:49.082+01:00Duly noted Nemo, those points all make sense.
Mo...Duly noted Nemo, those points all make sense. <br /><br />More generally, when did Middle Eastern markets ever become a leading indicator of anything?! I mean, one can only hope that this is leading people to pile on short orders for the EU market open tomorrow only to realise that a new vintage of Eurobllx has been put on the table.<br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17713098366100603752011-08-07T16:15:21.467+01:002011-08-07T16:15:21.467+01:00The EM beta trade would be interesting but pick yo...The EM beta trade would be interesting but pick your target wisely.... sadly the stuff that isn't insanely credit driven and which isn't suffering from dutch disease doesn't come cheap (Thailand, Indonesia). India may be worth a punt - oil relief really matters there though Brazil is suffering from weak policy guidance when they really need it IMHO.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74852489674268701322011-08-07T16:00:27.688+01:002011-08-07T16:00:27.688+01:00The Millionth Monkey has decided that discretion, ...The Millionth Monkey has decided that discretion, etcetera, and taken the item down. Headline still there, however.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47218221965982792352011-08-07T15:56:59.551+01:002011-08-07T15:56:59.551+01:00Very interesting point on India LB, one of my favo...Very interesting point on India LB, one of my favorite trades at this point and especially if this turns into uber fear mode is to look at some bargain beta in emerging markets since the market is already discounting considerable more tightening to come across the board. <br /><br />With headline inflation already a non issue in h02 due to high base effects I think that the market is pricing in too much tightening. I mean, the yield curve is already inverted in India (or essentially flat as a pancake) and it is virtually the same in Chile. <br /><br />I don't know about Brazil but the aggregate P/E is under 5 now. But then again, the big cap in Brazil are levered towards energy so I am not sure here. <br /><br />Agree on the BOJ and carry trade but they will need to shed themselves of the safe haven tag. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51310727523333875222011-08-07T15:10:04.159+01:002011-08-07T15:10:04.159+01:00FYI, the Site That Shall Not Be Named has some com...FYI, the Site That Shall Not Be Named has some complete bollox today, referencing Der Spiegel as saying that Germany refuses to bail out Italy etc..<br /><br />Now if you follow the link to Der Spiegel, and if you read German you will find a rather dull article about the US debt downgrade....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38016322889971271612011-08-07T14:39:21.119+01:002011-08-07T14:39:21.119+01:00Claus,
I would expect nothing less than cerebral ...Claus,<br /><br />I would expect nothing less than cerebral analysis from a Dane in this situation, even though Dubai is down 13% as I write, and JCT has only hours to Save The World. LB just wishes the market were full of clear-thinking analytical Northern Europeans and not populated by leveraged limbic systems on speed.<br /><br />Completely agree that unless the world actually ends here this week is probably a good time to stock up on yield. More than a few reliable dividends are on sale here, and Australians, Brits and South African money managers might be thinking it wise to use some of their unnaturally elevated home currencies to snap up some bargains with both the USD and US equities relatively cheap at the same time.<br /><br />It appears that the BoJ shares our view that now is the time for them to take the reins again and begin another episode of Yen Carry. They are jawboning to anyone who will listen about their willingness to debase their currency by printing and intervening:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/japan-weakening-yen-may-have-cost-record-amount-as-more-intervention-looms.html" rel="nofollow"> BoJ Continues Yen Intervention Trash Talk </a><br /><br />It is notable that a few countries (India, especially) have taken note of falling commodity prices and are now saying that rate hikes may be off the table. Look for some hints of easier ECB policy later today, or this week, along with the serving of Eurofudge™.<br /><br />Are we going to see mREITs bashed again this week on the US downgrade or did everyone price this S&P action in long ago?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74763284391591231162011-08-07T04:17:38.508+01:002011-08-07T04:17:38.508+01:00Secret Sauce regarding gold - you and I have been ...Secret Sauce regarding gold - you and I have been on the same grind for some time. The skew is really great since there are enough people that believe we get some explosion with gold gapping a few hundred bucks over a quarter. The slow grind seems the most plausible outcome here for a while yet.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83244763102231707352011-08-06T09:03:52.838+01:002011-08-06T09:03:52.838+01:00So, is it back to the TWINE trade here?
More gen...So, is it back to the TWINE trade here? <br /><br />More generally and looking beyond short term punts which luckily represents a small part of my total portfolio, now (and the next couple of months) appears to be a good time to cost average your way into some of the long term stocks you have on your list. <br /><br />This would especially be the case if the world is not about to end as politicians start to believe that austerity and bloodletting are the only ways to salvation. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41942268485942414482011-08-06T07:42:24.222+01:002011-08-06T07:42:24.222+01:00"We think this will end up with both socialis..."We think this will end up with both socialism and capitalism left wanting but with no clear alternative."<br /><br />There is an alternative.<br /><br />The problem is that there IS an alternative.<br /><br />I'm not talking about the one with lots of nice useless yoga.Chaos Theoreticiannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7481802099422774042011-08-06T02:28:08.833+01:002011-08-06T02:28:08.833+01:00Thank you Mr Standard for making us all poorer. I...Thank you Mr Standard for making us all poorer. Impeccable timing as usual. Does anyone else feel that someone had to know this ahead of time or am I just paranoid? I mean it seems to explain quite nicely thursdays action on lack of major news flow. Oh well we will soon see what's blacker than black. My stomach hurts, do you have any of that hymalayan pink salt handy I have the feeling I may need a few pounds.Jack Flashnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73150719194287142592011-08-05T23:57:01.840+01:002011-08-05T23:57:01.840+01:00Thank you MoreLiver, most flattered. Had a peek at...Thank you MoreLiver, most flattered. Had a peek at your site.. good lists of reads, thanks again.<br /><br /><br />PpPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18617343238280736182011-08-05T21:24:06.659+01:002011-08-05T21:24:06.659+01:00Thank you, TMM. I am putting couple of lines from ...Thank you, TMM. I am putting couple of lines from here as my quote of the day.<br /><br />Sincerely, Moreliver<br />http://morelivers.blogspot.comMoreLiverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03983157511628721698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-410628909819283252011-08-05T21:11:33.624+01:002011-08-05T21:11:33.624+01:00LB re short selling bans and effectiveness i fully...LB re short selling bans and effectiveness i fully agree but that has never stopped the in the past. <br /><br />Wellred .. Yes, unfortunately that is so true re response speed. But we do feel that without anything at all then that red is going to be all over the screens early next week . Of course the BTP buying came in after my last comment and could be the "better than nothing". How much ammo tho and where from? . Expanding swap lines with BoE and Fed? <br />Do we get joint coordinated QE? Or Capital controls?<br />We just hope there is a small surprise present in the markets stocking by monday open.. even if its just an orange. <br /><br /><br />thanks Charles, nice point re US - i d love to talk farming. <br /><br />Have a good weekend all .. <br />PPPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63732235930394408372011-08-05T21:09:49.315+01:002011-08-05T21:09:49.315+01:00Wonder what the correlation is between MM comment ...Wonder what the correlation is between MM comment frequency and market lows? On quiet up days in April you could hear the crickets chirping...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52672246328040255002011-08-05T21:07:16.319+01:002011-08-05T21:07:16.319+01:00Well Red, sure, BAC and C are loathsome dogs, and ...Well Red, sure, BAC and C are loathsome dogs, and the market can't rally w/o financials and energy. All true, but both have been taken behind the woodshed this week, and there is only so much flogging that can be handed out before the profit-taking inevitably begins.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18965347754408559772011-08-05T20:24:45.690+01:002011-08-05T20:24:45.690+01:00So what's it to be chaps ...
http://www.youtu...So what's it to be chaps ...<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gDhR1R3S0s<br /><br />Enjoy the rest.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73853662610051358692011-08-05T19:43:55.298+01:002011-08-05T19:43:55.298+01:00LB, what do you make of BAC and C's performanc...LB, what do you make of BAC and C's performances today? Pretty nasty stuff. From where I am standing, this doesn't bode well for next weekWellRednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33695011990217961742011-08-05T19:16:03.300+01:002011-08-05T19:16:03.300+01:00VIX peaked at 39 but it is falling fast here, I re...VIX peaked at 39 but it is falling fast here, I reckon Mr Shorty has indeed left the casino and is off to spend his winnings. Anyone who lingers too long is going to get a visit from the Proctologist.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16193575992549357662011-08-05T19:11:10.971+01:002011-08-05T19:11:10.971+01:00That'll be why he's confirmed accelerated ...That'll be why he's confirmed accelerated reforms then ;)ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18669375970790674002011-08-05T18:52:48.384+01:002011-08-05T18:52:48.384+01:00ECB on the wires saying that they are ready to buy...ECB on the wires saying that they are ready to buy Italian debt if Berletchsconi brings forward reforms. <br /><br />I guess if you've already blown your bankroll, you might as well double. I mean hell, it's Germany's money anyways, right?WellRednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52711464448520343232011-08-05T18:39:42.571+01:002011-08-05T18:39:42.571+01:00Yup. Unless Mangler and Silvio feed each other fud...Yup. Unless Mangler and Silvio feed each other fudge and get it on over live TV this weekend, there might still be lingering Euro concerns. Can't rule out another mini-plunge to test that low zone, before The Beard rides in with another "Extended Duration" and hints of more OMOs.<br /><br />Still shaking my head at having steadily Kevlar'd a pile of NOK this week. It is going to zero one day, but not immediately. <br /><br />Right, don't hang around and overstay your welcome today, Mr Shorty, you are really going to regret it if you do... lunchtime....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5242785371845655922011-08-05T18:38:17.160+01:002011-08-05T18:38:17.160+01:00Polemic, I am often accused of being cynical (espe...Polemic, I am often accused of being cynical (especially when it comes to politicians in this day and age), but I think it is going to take a lot more red for politicians to actually sit down and hammer out anything comprehensive. Maybe because what a comprehensive agreement would contain doesn't seem at all obvious to me (so how on earth would they figure it out). <br /><br />The European periphery is pretty straightforward I guess (something along the lines of what has been in the The Economist time and time again), but the US is in a consumer liquidity trap of sorts which does not lend itself to effective policy. Pile on a litany of structural headwinds, and I really do not see room for a short term fix (nor do I hold hope that the necessary long-term fixes will be put in place - people are too myopic to support such reforms).WellRednoreply@blogger.com