tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3902928334634054527..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The EUR in 2017 Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2634235701151659302017-01-14T04:19:04.894+00:002017-01-14T04:19:04.894+00:00
Do you need a loan low rate? Ajil Financial Inves...<br />Do you need a loan low rate? Ajil Financial Investment is giving out loan in cheap rate apply now: ajilfinancial_inv.basharat@otmail.com we give out loans at cheap rate of 2 % .<br /><br />Contact info.<br />Website: http://ajilfinancialinv.com/<br />Email: ajilfinancial_inv.basharat@hotmail.com<br />info@ajilfinancialinv.com<br />Phone : +917411275617 AJIL الخدمات الماليةhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16413020461490290999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5458312005555767552017-01-06T01:06:32.540+00:002017-01-06T01:06:32.540+00:00Regarding the US labour market:
The fed seems not...Regarding the US labour market:<br /><br />The fed seems not to believe the data as judged by their actions, or inaction on MP <br /><br />I therefore find it hard to accept that so many market participants judge the data to be axiomatic. For instance, it is widely known that the conventional measure of unemployment has serious shortcomings, particularly with regard to dropping participants out of the survey for various reasons and particularly with understating underemployment.<br /><br />To blithely state that the unemployment rate is sub 5% therefore we must be about to see a breakout in wage inflation (despite 30 years of history to the contrary) strikes me as lazy thinking in the extreme.<br /><br />Whilst fully expecting to be shot down for comparing apples with oranges due to cultural differences etc etc I would note the following <br /><br />"The seasonally adjusted jobless rate in Japan rose to 3.1 percent in November of 2016, from 3 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 3 percent. The jobs-to-applicants ratio increased to 1.41 percent from 1.4 percent, hitting a new high since July 1991. Unemployment Rate in Japan averaged 2.73 percent from 1953 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 5.60 percent in July of 2009 and a record low of 1.00 percent in November of 1968"<br /><br />Wheres the inflation in Japan due to a "tight" labour market ? Answer : there isn't any.<br /><br />This is not your Grandad's labour market. The number is a number to be quoted in newspapers and the like and seems to have very little correlation with ....well......anything<br /><br />Rosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75238477858290149652017-01-06T00:10:55.668+00:002017-01-06T00:10:55.668+00:00Lot of comment off my remark that I don't buy ...Lot of comment off my remark that I don't buy it that economies are 'weak'. Mostly misunderstanding understandably what that comment didn't say which is that I believe monetary policy is to a large degree zero sum. Gainers are funded by losers on the policy distribution merrygoround and 'not weak' does not equate to strong. It just means on aggregate that the majority are muddling on through. This though fades into irrelevance when you consider the degree of misallocation and eventual capital losses that accrue the longer loose monetary policy is in force. To deny that outcome is simply to decry most of what we know about human behaviour and risk taking. In summary, just because I don't think economies are 'weak' to the degree central bankers would have us believe does not mean I don't think they have already sown the seeds of further bad problems ahead. <br />Believe it when I say thank you for the santa rally ,but it's already in the bank and I'm not worried about leaving any on the table.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58706070163194459692017-01-05T22:17:08.946+00:002017-01-05T22:17:08.946+00:00Thanks for the insight NicoThanks for the insight NicoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75205292981033899802017-01-05T22:00:22.113+00:002017-01-05T22:00:22.113+00:00Nico,
great stuff.
As others have said, hang in ...Nico,<br /><br />great stuff.<br /><br />As others have said, hang in here, your views and experience are valued Up_Side_Downnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85991708999524763542017-01-05T20:49:15.661+00:002017-01-05T20:49:15.661+00:00Nico, nice summary.
On the short term trading id...Nico, nice summary. <br /><br />On the short term trading idea. Now the risk is solely on Trump's first day. He promised that he would take actions toward China and Mexico. Given his recent twitters on GM and Toyota, it looks like that he will deliver. So that is why XRT is tanking IMO and I think there will be many other big name stocks that are likely suffer: not only affected by Trump's action but also China's counter-actions. So short AUD from here? Short BA, CAT, AAPL? What other trading vehicles are still available? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43745978482749049572017-01-05T19:49:03.661+00:002017-01-05T19:49:03.661+00:004) France - still losing more friends by supportin...4) France - still losing more friends by supporting le Pen the same way i supported Trump and Brexit. Those are difficult choices pertaining to difficult personnalities but motto is fuck the establishment no matter what, you choose Stalin to defeat Hitler any day (i reckon Mnuchin really has the closet sadist in him, Stalin is a good image to describe the ruthless cruelty the former displayed in the foreclosure game). Don't think we'll ever see 4/4 in 12 months with a le Pen win but this is what France need suffices to watch the latest documentary on French suburds discrimination of women and how our gauche caviar sold to Sunni expansion. <br /><br />broad topic by the way but if you ever want to watch Islamic conquest of the world at work the guidelines have been written by the Isesco:<br /><br />http://www.isesco.org.ma/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/StrategieExtVELR.pdf <br /><br />a public document absolutely ignored which compares well to mein Kampf written in 1926 and also ignored at everybody's risk. <br /><br />5) UK: same observation as US on high end real estate. Funny money has deserted and/or has been disfigured by GBP de facto devaluation. Btw there is a talented guy who lives there and went full on bull in March 2009 with a 20,000 target on Dow Jones. I laughed repeatedly at the dude because i did not understand POMO and shorted counter trend at great expense and look where we are now. He just went 100% cash. Talk about sticking to a plan. And he made a stern bearish call on US equities. The guy was the most stubborn equity bull throughout 2009-2016. It's nice to have his company as we speak<br /><br />6) Austria: little to say here except that pragmatic Austrians DID read <br /><br />http://www.isesco.org.ma/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/StrategieExtVELR.pdf<br /><br />and took action. Quran has to be translated in German, preaching also has to be done in German and Austria has forbid any financing of mosques or coranic schools by foreign powers (in other words, Fick dich Qatar and Saudi Arabia)<br /><br /><br />If you trade what you see, EUR seems to be a buy here. But it is hard to ignore the slow identity desintegration of Europe. Will the demographic bet on muslim immigration transcend the societal meltdown? or will it force populist governments to take over and kill the European project instead. That, added to the mantra of innovation gap with the US, still goes against any premium held by EUR over USD<br /><br />are you guys watching Bitcoin meltdown today? stability is not here yetNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68718590406441916792017-01-05T19:48:47.665+00:002017-01-05T19:48:47.665+00:00rossco cheers mate i'll try one more time
che...rossco cheers mate i'll try one more time<br /><br />checkmate one likes to think economies are not as weak and are mending and then one looks at debt and scratch the head. Make no mistake all that illusion of recovery has been borrowed away at NIR cost and now IRs are shooting up. La commedia e finita.<br /><br />I travel less than before and probably less than you now but in the 6 countries where i live or visit family every year i observe the following<br /><br />1) US - not one house is being sold in our Hawaii neighbourhood where 0.2 acre beach shacks priced at $7m were reduced to $6m, then $5m and now $4.5m in two years and not finding a buyer. East side New York had the first downmove in 4 years i believe. From ridiculous levels high in thin air but still, the bidding war is gone. Art price is calming down. Am still using Sothebys (BID) as an international proxy indicator of 'funny money' and the lower highs since 2014 are noted.<br /><br />the US paid $220bn to service the debt in 2015 so with a cocky $19.8tn to serve and rates up 100bps the debt service just doubled. Anyone worry about that? Our main man Trump would have to go fiscally heavy to recoup but so far his call is 180 degree opposite. Before you try to measure how much concrete is poured how many Caterpillars will be bought to build a wall (and pay up CAT over 30x) you really got to do your simple arithmetic on the great combo of debt service exploding and fiscal largesse announced. I still dream that US would just default on their debt and give a chopsuey middle finger to China. Just for the laugh of it but we'd have to laugh fast since we'd get a war next.<br /><br />2) Greece is Greece, they just had their first surplus in years (eur 600m) and decided to give it all away to poor pensioners, and not pay back one cent to the Troika. Germany got apeshit mad, Brussels told Germany 'do not upset them or they clearly never pay us back ever' then Germany tells Greece 'well how generous of you but we hope it's a one off'. Greece is one of a kind. The bona fide Robin Hood of Western economies. <br /><br />3) Italy - will not repeat that the Italian banking system is bankrupt. Pure political play, a lot of haircut to be had, and raising rates are absolutely killing the insane amount of bonds held by those banks (a worldwide issue for banks anyway). 3/3 referendum is oblivion for now but the anger is here and counting. Consider M5S in power whenever next election is held. The (domestic) Italian economy is doing abysmally bad for anyone who is not exporting in dirt cheap euros.<br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48607187335804501762017-01-05T18:37:27.970+00:002017-01-05T18:37:27.970+00:00XRT :) I'd rather be lucky than good on any da...XRT :) I'd rather be lucky than good on any day. But really, who was expecting brick and mortar to do well in this digital economy? Mall traffic is dead and the operators are bailing out bankrupt tenants whose holes they can't refill. What could possibly go wrong next? Short with scaleouts on the way to the ultimate target below the neck of head and shoulders. Will add on any rallies.IPAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88782232618756717992017-01-05T17:51:38.909+00:002017-01-05T17:51:38.909+00:00Oh what fun. Hedgies favorite trades getting destr...Oh what fun. Hedgies favorite trades getting destroyed today -- +USDCNH and the proxy, +USDKRW. And along with it, the "if it keeps going up like this and I pyramid, I'll be a billionaire by summer," bitcoin. Oh, and then USDJPY and US rates ... man, so much for the MMGA trades. Perhaps the boredom of Christmases spent with family (if you're lucky, if less lucky, you were imagining how you'd have slit your wrists if you hadn't been accepted by a college far away from home) gave time for the post-election adrenaline to wear off, and as though waking from a dream, participants have awoken to their old Larry Summers secular stagnation paradigm.<br /><br />Personally, I'm tired of Larry Summers. I was appalled when Michael Gove said, Britons "have had enough of the experts," but now I embrace the new zeitgeist. After all, who here doesn't think academics are a bunch of clueless who presided over a crazy multi-decade credit binge? Enough of the experts indeed.<br /><br />The CNH strength and XBT weakness probably make the Chinese euphoria optionality in HG less valuable. Still holding my small position, but wouldn't be surprised if IPA turns out right on this one.<br /><br />At the time of the Fed meeting, I remarked how (what I believe to be) Yellen's "dot" didn't increase. Still rates sold off hard. Well, markets have now gone all the way back to pre-meeting levels, and then some.<br />With rates quiescent, I decided to get long some RUB and BRL. Probably better to play local rates, but I hate the bid/ask I get shown.<br /><br />LB w/r/t to wages, Atlanta fed's tracker is looking pretty robust. Wages are coming back, especially adjusted for productivity.<br /><br />James w/r/t to EUR, vs. rates it looks fair around here. I second the views expressed above that it's become THE funding currency, so should do well in risk-off. The output gap is large, so short rates are probably fairly anchored for a while. Meanwhile, what are the alternatives? CHF? If SNB throws in the towel, you're killed. JPY? US 10Y rates roulette, anyone? Too much of that risk for anyone who wants a boring funding currency to make alpha on their long. So, it's the euro. The USD? Border tax and you are done. Repatriation bill and '03/'04-like reaction, and you're done. Dollar shortage? Done (admittedly, LIBOR-OIS has been falling for months, so looks like less of a risk). So, it's EUR.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68377456151067536462017-01-05T17:29:50.898+00:002017-01-05T17:29:50.898+00:00@left/Checkmate my two cents - I think job growth ...@left/Checkmate my two cents - I think job growth in the US will absolutely slow to a run rate of 100k/month - you know why? Because there is literally no one left to hire who has a skill set match - if anything the participation rate will keep dropping globally and CBs will get the inflation they have been wishing for and then some, and trust me no one will like the results when that happens - productivity trends all look ugly, and not just in the US (and please don't peddle some Hal Varian bullshit about how the lovely conversations one has on Facebook should increase the hedonic adjustment). The only productivity goes up in the future is if joblessness does also, and the fact that robots don't need to buy toothpaste and groceries may start to create a few issues here and there.<br />LB enjoy your TLT rally, I am happy for you and waiting patiently for 123-25 to sell TF out of it. There MAY be another face ripper in it down the line, maybe in a few months when equity bulls finally have their faces hit by a frying pan which they've been itching for, but I have a hunch it may just happen from a lower level.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-476009507311408842017-01-05T16:56:09.860+00:002017-01-05T16:56:09.860+00:00Using The Metal Markets to Forecast The Direction ...Using The Metal Markets to Forecast The Direction of Interest Rates<br /><br /><br />http://www.athrasher.com/using-metal-markets-forecast-direction-interest-rates/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49139252619578839822017-01-05T16:38:27.319+00:002017-01-05T16:38:27.319+00:00Got my trade signal on TLT just before Christmas
...Got my trade signal on TLT just before Christmas<br /><br /><br />http://imgur.com/a/5XbcYAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57683395134177395252017-01-05T16:38:14.175+00:002017-01-05T16:38:14.175+00:00Anon 2.58. Yes absolutely. But my hope for a gener...Anon 2.58. Yes absolutely. But my hope for a general reversal includes a reversal in eurusd higher too. So double reason.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17287253199295713452017-01-05T16:36:06.440+00:002017-01-05T16:36:06.440+00:00Sell the euro, they said...
#MMMGA!
Sell the euro, they said... <br /><br />#MMMGA!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90839522140728191962017-01-05T16:33:44.971+00:002017-01-05T16:33:44.971+00:00Let's try a little logic. Does 'not weak&#...Let's try a little logic. Does 'not weak' mean the same as 'strong'?.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81855122413064154692017-01-05T16:12:22.858+00:002017-01-05T16:12:22.858+00:00Monetary support was for the banks and the artific...Monetary support was for the banks and the artificially inflated housing units of the Baby Boomers, not the economy. If you think ADP = 150k and flat hourly wages are signs of a strong US economy then OK, it's strong…. "Mr Bond" begs to differ, though. Yields are falling…. more on that in the next few days.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58555871019359582472017-01-05T16:00:06.728+00:002017-01-05T16:00:06.728+00:00Left,
By now it should be apparent that I don'...Left,<br />By now it should be apparent that I don't think the Fed could button a 'blouse'. That is not to say that I don't simply see that most people are and have been doing just fine for quite some time. In that sense I don't think the economy is 'weak' and it certainly has not required the outrageous level of monetary support that as been delivered.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25427485169612002632017-01-05T15:53:05.280+00:002017-01-05T15:53:05.280+00:00LB has no clue about equities at the moment, but w...LB has no clue about equities at the moment, but will weigh in with some thoughts on fixed income soon.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48447292526346510632017-01-05T15:52:21.763+00:002017-01-05T15:52:21.763+00:00The Fed has been wrong about US growth for each of...The Fed has been wrong about US growth for each of the last 4 or 5 years, so why should 2017 be any different? ;-)Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42317067068196075862017-01-05T15:20:45.214+00:002017-01-05T15:20:45.214+00:00I don't buy into the economy 'isn't as...I don't buy into the economy 'isn't as strong as the Fed thinks'. Indeed I don't buy into that not just for the US ,but also for the UK and a lot of Europe. My take is that we've seen very real gains in most developed countries starting nearly a couple of years back. Indeed, I think the economies have been and are considerably stronger than current monetary policy would indicate. I travel a lot and see very tangible changes in recent years every where I go compared to the trough years. Indeed, were it not for political risks I think we would have seen current changes re the bond and equity spread earlier still. This isn't particularly tradeable other than as I say I don't buy the 'weak economy' rational anymore and have not for quite some time. I think tat is people still fighting the last 'battle'.<br />Does not mean some people are struggling ,but was that ever not the case ? For me they are now quite definitely the minority and no handicap that prevents the majority from getting on with decent economic consumption behaviour. Saying that , looking for example at the FTSE there are many stocks there that look fully valued for even that positive outlook.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41828461671682887832017-01-05T14:58:42.377+00:002017-01-05T14:58:42.377+00:00polemic @11.24
This is not an easy market, but is...polemic @11.24<br /><br />This is not an easy market, but isn't there the danger that a weaker € helps European exports and thus keeps a bid to European equities? Something similar to what has been seen in UK markets? I appreciate there are several factors to consider.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87749860145547975892017-01-05T14:50:41.783+00:002017-01-05T14:50:41.783+00:00Nice post James. Good to see you, Abee etc rallyin...Nice post James. Good to see you, Abee etc rallying to keep this little cesspool alive ;). I am in two minds on the euro to be honest. It's very tough going for the shorts down here given where we are coming from, but the macro environment suggests that parity is a shoe-in<br /><br />- EU/EZ political clusterf'ck<br />- Wider rate differentials with the U.S. <br />- Trump policy mix hugely bullish for the USD<br /><br />The only thing is really that if we assume the EUR is a carry funder, which it is to some extent, the money will come home if the sh't hits the fan, which means the euro goes up. And, lest I forget, LB's point that there is no way the US is as strong as we think and therefore that the Fed will be stuck in neutral in contrast to markets' expectation of several hikes. <br /><br />Not an easy one! CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43425882490444891602017-01-05T12:35:19.515+00:002017-01-05T12:35:19.515+00:00IPA - Good idea. IPA - Good idea. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46375988703099029322017-01-05T12:13:20.740+00:002017-01-05T12:13:20.740+00:00Pol,
I am buying May/Jun equity puts. Stuff is ch...Pol,<br /><br />I am buying May/Jun equity puts. Stuff is cheap. It ain't going to be a two-week affair and I hate time decay to even be remotely bothering me, bad enough pissing against the wind is involved. When the crap hits the fan I'll be sitting and waiting for them. VIX north of 30 gets me out.IPAnoreply@blogger.com