tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post387794266599898167..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Testing TuesdaysMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60388897264105776022014-04-24T07:59:45.986+01:002014-04-24T07:59:45.986+01:00C says
Anon 7.39 victor by a knockout.C says<br />Anon 7.39 victor by a knockout.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18547370227655860552014-04-24T06:24:00.261+01:002014-04-24T06:24:00.261+01:00Interesting article! Found this very interesting: ...Interesting article! Found this very interesting: Kimberly-Clark to increase investments in Thailand. Read it here http://bit.ly/1f8eKaNStorewars Newshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14158088500801666670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62922288885689229142014-04-23T19:39:07.818+01:002014-04-23T19:39:07.818+01:00@Razvan Podariu,
Thank you for your insightful ex...@Razvan Podariu,<br /><br />Thank you for your insightful explanation. I guess that I was thinking that Fed will be the first among majors to be forced to raise rates since Fed has the lowest tolerance on inflation. NZ does not count as it is too small.<br /><br />AUD has a China problem, not urgent now but never gone. CAD is determined to go down to the toilet to export oil to the US. GBP does have a better economy but its track record on inflation control is miserable. JPY politician really don't have a second choice other than devalue currency. And EUR, it probably has to QE. <br /><br />So those mystery dots Sherlock Holmes just solved made me believe that even given what you just said, USD should have a pretty strong case to go up. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10096594331836962232014-04-23T19:08:10.847+01:002014-04-23T19:08:10.847+01:00Nice post MM, your are getting to be prolific. Its...Nice post MM, your are getting to be prolific. Its hard to keep up!<br /><br />The tuesday performance is interesting. Turnaround tuesday seems etched into traders minds and perhaps does have something to it (after a big Friday-Monday move) but other than that I dont buy it. <br /><br />I'm finding the energy space quite interesting. Equities are breaking out (defensive rotation) and Gas prices are inching up to 2010, 2011 rejection levels. Something to watch as we get closer to them<br /><br />There seems to be almost no conviction in any markets I look at. Indonesian nickel situation looks interesting thats about it<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24636290504974540472014-04-23T16:53:58.386+01:002014-04-23T16:53:58.386+01:00@Anonymous
First of all why would someone buy US ...@Anonymous<br /><br />First of all why would someone buy US bonds for 2.60% - 2.70% (UST10Y) when you can obtain much more buying Spanish or Portuguese bonds and enjoying a negative inflation? The real return is even bigger...isn't it?<br /><br />Why do I need to hold USD while RBA or RBNZ pays me 2.50% or 2.75% (maybe even 3% very soon) while the FED pays me 0.10% for my money and maybe....maybe....they will raise the interest rates next year. And even then, the hike will be no more than 0.25%. I have NOW 2.75% from RBNZ.<br /><br />If you have a higher risk appetite you can buy TRY or INR and get 12% or 8% for your money. Look at the EM Index MSCI Ishares ETF: is rallying while Russia is playing with the fire at Ukraine's doors. <br /><br />The US economy is recovering indeed but who cares? So is the UK's economy (and at a faster pace in my opinion). The Eurozone has a problem with the lack of inflation but has no problem with the growth. And the Eurozone has something else: it has the "whatever it takes" while US has a printing machine to backup the USD.<br /><br />Last year, IMF recommended to diversify the foreign reserve currencies by buying AUD and CAD. And two of the most powerful CB in the world - SNB and PBOC - are doing exactly this: they are dropping the USD in the favor of AUD, EUR and CAD.<br /><br />Recently, Russia is moving to drop also the USD as a reserve currency and also looks to denominate the Oil and the Gas in Russian Rubles. Guess what: China is their first ally into this.<br /><br />I don't think that the FED is tapering because the economy is doing far better than it did last year but they look to taper the QE because they are aware that the QE has done more damages than good things.<br /><br />So now I have a question for you: why would I buy the USD?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03704434880244771508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78661501069257070602014-04-23T15:26:20.115+01:002014-04-23T15:26:20.115+01:00@Razvan Podariu,
why does market want to get rid ...@Razvan Podariu,<br /><br />why does market want to get rid of USD? Could you elaborate?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35225424697843633322014-04-23T14:45:52.517+01:002014-04-23T14:45:52.517+01:00I m rather hoping that "this time is differen...I m rather hoping that "this time is different". As a fan of turnaround tuesdays and seeing prices take off again over the past week I am as contrarian as ever and this perma-bull has taken some P and is going short term short DM eqs. <br /> Also working on the "Fed vs market expectation of Fed" oscillations I would posit that the risk of surprise side for next fed will be to be "less dovish than expected" side. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27696793067301445882014-04-23T13:04:15.830+01:002014-04-23T13:04:15.830+01:00In my opinion, the thing with the GBP/USD is not t...In my opinion, the thing with the GBP/USD is not that the market buys GBP, but has more to do with the fact that the market wants to get rid of USD. I have months since I am monitoring the "behavior" of the majors and I am inclined to believe that the trick is on the USD side and not where most of the analysts look at.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03704434880244771508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21540949416249231812014-04-23T12:39:05.029+01:002014-04-23T12:39:05.029+01:00The best Moyes joke so far, thank you ! Meanwhile ...The best Moyes joke so far, thank you ! Meanwhile in other news, Greenlight's Einhorn thinks we're in a tech bubble but has a big long in solar. No risk, no fun, as the Germans say. And those guys know all about tech and renewable bubbles...Dismal Scientistnoreply@blogger.com