tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3737913509630677..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A Call to Arms: Give Us your Best Trade Idea for 2018...Can We Beat Goldman?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79328820317667943762018-12-11T05:11:54.890+00:002018-12-11T05:11:54.890+00:00เลเซอร์หน้าใส เป็นอีกหนึ่งของใหม่ทางความสวยสดงดงาม...เลเซอร์หน้าใส เป็นอีกหนึ่งของใหม่ทางความสวยสดงดงามที่ช่วยฟื้นฟูผิวหนังที่แห้งหยาบ บริเวณใบหน้าหมองคล้ำให้กลับมาผ่องใสมองกระปรี้กระเปร่า ผ่องแผ้วภายในช่วงเวลาอันเร็วทันใจ นับว่าเป็นทางลัดความสวยสดงดงามที่กำลังเป็นที่นิยมสูง ช่วยปรนนิบัติวัตถากผิวให้ขาวกระจ่างขาวสวยใส จากการลดลางเลือนริ้วรอยจุดด่างดำได้อย่างมีคุณภาพ<br /><br /><a href="http://www.gangnamclinicthailand.com/%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3/%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8B%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%8C/40-%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8B%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%8C%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%B2%E0%B9%83%E0%B8%AA" rel="nofollow">เลเซอร์หน้าใส</a><br /><a href="http://www.gangnamclinicthailand.com/%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3/%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8B%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%8C/40-%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8B%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%8C%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%B2%E0%B9%83%E0%B8%AA" rel="nofollow">เลเซอร์ลดริ้วรอย</a><br /><a href="http://www.gangnamclinicthailand.com/%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3/%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8B%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%8C/40-%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%8B%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%8C%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%B2%E0%B9%83%E0%B8%AA" rel="nofollow">เลเซอร์รอยสิว</a><br />dokdokhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08325980699815509385noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52656544712213479302018-08-16T21:49:00.904+01:002018-08-16T21:49:00.904+01:00สอนแทงบอลออนไลน์ วันนี้ว่างๆ เราจะมาแนะนำ และสอนวิ...สอน<a href="https://www.databet88.com/" title="แทงบอลออนไลน์" rel="nofollow">แทงบอลออนไลน์</a> วันนี้ว่างๆ เราจะมาแนะนำ และสอนวิธีเล่นบอลกันดีกว่า เพราะหลาย ๆ คนที่กำลังจะเริ่มแทงบอล น่าจะต้องงงกันอยู่บ้าง Unknowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00301577030556851067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34514914729502687322018-08-09T10:20:29.493+01:002018-08-09T10:20:29.493+01:00I said above, "short Tesla, I just don't ...I said above, "short Tesla, I just don't know when". Well, I've just gone and done it. Up about 20% in the last week or so because of promises at the quarterly results and then that unusual Tweet about taking Tsla private at $420 per share with funding secured. <br /><br />Effectively that caps the gains for the stock now with downside to zero.<br /><br />Oh well, no doubt he'll pull some rabbits out of the hat as desperation rises along an intriguing journey from here. Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40432745423531469802017-12-12T14:51:40.576+00:002017-12-12T14:51:40.576+00:00@LB: Aye aye, far be it from me to suggest that an...@LB: Aye aye, far be it from me to suggest that any of these things are obvious slam dunks.Martin Ghoulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081823970007005988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53955964725198809692017-12-12T14:19:07.125+00:002017-12-12T14:19:07.125+00:00@Martin: Agree. But duration is a bubble that will...@Martin: Agree. But duration is a bubble that will perhaps get significantly bigger before it pops?Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86460314616569688982017-12-12T10:10:02.595+00:002017-12-12T10:10:02.595+00:00@LB, yes, I am well aware of all the factors that ...@LB, yes, I am well aware of all the factors that you mention... Question, however, does all this demand that you describe exhibit no sensitivity to the funding rate for the currency in question? If you believe the mkt (which is significantly more conservative than the Fed), by the end of next year the US short rate should be arnd 1.85% (this would put the real short rate at arnd 0). All else being equal, does a 30y nominal rate of 2.25% (arnd 0.35% real) seem like a steal to you?<br /><br />Again, this is what makes a mkt... All I am suggesting is that, absent a very strong Japanification thesis or some sort of a regulatory squeeze, I can't imagine duration representing any value here. In fact, IMHO, duration is the biggest bubble of them all out there.Martin Ghoulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081823970007005988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81309993539254172042017-12-12T08:29:04.566+00:002017-12-12T08:29:04.566+00:00Thank you for the posts. This article is very usef...Thank you for the posts. This article is very useful.<br />Thank you very much.<br /><a href="http://davidmsack.com/" rel="nofollow">เกมส์ GTA</a><br /><a href="http://barnhousequilts.com" rel="nofollow">ร้านอาหารไทย</a><br /><a href="http://globalsciencepublishers.com/" rel="nofollow">แฟชั่น</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12828770988985598145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65425206432983961912017-12-11T17:23:24.803+00:002017-12-11T17:23:24.803+00:00@Martin: Logical indeed, but over-simplistic. I re...@Martin: Logical indeed, but over-simplistic. I refer the Honorable Gentleman to the history of the Japanese yield curve.... DM bond markets are not going to blow up, not just yet anyway, and in the interim there will be many profitable swing trades in this asset class.<br /><br />Look at this way, Ghoulish one, if you are managing quality fixed income funds in Japan or Germany, where are you going to go for yield? Real rates there are clearly negative. You can't buy dodgy corporate or EM govies, so where else are you going to go? OK, so there is already one fairly obvious source of demand. Another source arises from countries like Switzerland, where the FX peg encourage/force the large banks and even the central bank itself to buy assets denominated in other currencies. US-based pension funds are another almost invariant source of demand. In addition, many types of investors and investment funds become fixed income investors when equities turn south, and finally there are the shorts who are forced to cover periodically. That's the marginal demand that fuels the occasional sharp moves lower in rates.<br /><br />IPA, no doubt you may be right about crude in the short term, but another over-supply episode lies ahead of us. OPEC members say one thing, but often do another - and just keep on pumping.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78138994347078122212017-12-11T13:03:38.477+00:002017-12-11T13:03:38.477+00:00@LB, re point 1...
I can't possibly imagine w...@LB, re point 1...<br /><br />I can't possibly imagine why one would find any value in long-dated rates in the US. You would be getting long 30y real rates at arnd 0.35%. This is not a very bigly yuge number, needless to say.Martin Ghoulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081823970007005988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65339102711156187092017-12-11T06:00:40.701+00:002017-12-11T06:00:40.701+00:00Not that anyone cares, but this is my second favor...Not that anyone cares, but this is my second favorite trade for 2018. Buy gold right here. Target $1,500<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-12-11/gold-s-time-is-nigh<br />IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3940552338561892472017-12-09T20:27:16.243+00:002017-12-09T20:27:16.243+00:00@LB, we have a market. As you would expect, I tota...@LB, we have a market. As you would expect, I totally disagree with you on oil. I see WTI at $70 before it ever comes back down to $40. I do think though that there may be a tall wall to overcome at $62 and we may see a sideways to slightly down move once it gets there. <br />Hard to imagine new US oil supply coming close to completely replacing the shortage stemming from OPEC/Russia output cuts extension. Let's also not forget that Libya and Nigeria agreed to quotas. <br />To your point on possible China slowdown. Their crude oil purchases are currently hitting record numbers and their consumption could be understated.<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-23/seen-from-space-china-s-oil-demand-looks-stronger-than-expectedIPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40069317608656697652017-12-08T21:41:21.839+00:002017-12-08T21:41:21.839+00:00For the time being, I like this scenario for Q1-2 ...For the time being, I like this scenario for Q1-2 '18.:<br /><br />1) Lower long end rates and a flatter yield curve.<br /><br />"The trend is your friend" here. Why fight it? As inflation fears moderate on lower producer prices (see commodities and oil below). Most recent Fed hikes have been followed by a fall in long end rates. Long bonds are already in rally mode, and this is definitely a hated rally at this point with minimal public participation, few vocal proponents and a great many shorts.<br /><br />2) Lower USDJPY, as terminal rate projections are yet again pushed out into the future on slow wage growth.<br /><br />Every year the Fed has readjusted its terminal rate projections to the right, "Lower for longer". BoJ is now decelerating QQE, even as JP domestic inflation shows signs of life. The yen also benefits from risk aversion in Asia, and some carry unwind related to reduced Chinese growth and demand.<br /><br />3) Lower crude oil - by Spring, if not earlier (unless we get an unusually harsh winter).<br /><br />Supply.... absent a geopolitical shock, global demand and US shale supply conspire to push oil prices back towards $40/bbl.<br /><br />4) Lower Asian stock indices as China slowdown continues and JPY appreciates.<br /><br />This is already just beginning but may gather momentum in the New Year.<br /><br />5) Lower base metal prices and AUD - China credit impulse declining, China growth slowing.<br /><br />Copper prices are a good indicator that a general fall in commodity prices may lie ahead and perhaps is in motion already.<br /><br />In summary: another modest but significant disinflationary episode lies ahead, in other words. That probably implies an increase in equity vol, with wider spreads and lower prices for high yield credit and associated small cap equities.<br /><br />2018 may start out like 2016. Everyone long going into EoY '17 and so there is nobody left to buy equities after the first few days of Q1 fund flows. Similar macro backdrop: China, falling commodities.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36061978363549033702017-12-08T18:03:23.006+00:002017-12-08T18:03:23.006+00:00Well, looks like my hopes for a flip in views arou...Well, looks like my hopes for a flip in views around GBP following an deal were WRONG. Still have some time, maybe market changes its mind. Still, trading around Nordic FX this week has more than paid for all the GBP option premium spent ;)<br /><br />Remember when people would dream of the riches from selling a toothpick to every Chinese person? Chinese consumers haven't gone away and as China cynicism fades, I wouldn't be surprised if many dream that dream again. This year's move in Chinese consumer stocks are perhaps the beginning of a multi-year move. A thesis I'd like to work up ... once I get through the forty reports on my desktop.<br /><br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12263226527264276712017-12-08T03:56:54.409+00:002017-12-08T03:56:54.409+00:00@skr....yeah, that's pretty awesome. Can we hi...@skr....yeah, that's pretty awesome. Can we hire an animator to get rocky fighting a squid? EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23675005668361377772017-12-07T17:03:03.130+00:002017-12-07T17:03:03.130+00:00@abee...."carry monkeys"...that hurts, m...@abee...."carry monkeys"...that hurts, man. :) That is my view in Brazil, I think the center-right will win, but you'll get a better entry point in 1H 2018. <br /><br />you may be right that the left won't win an EM election in 2018, but I have yet to hear a persuasive case for how and why establishment candidates will win in Mexico. PRI's solution to AMLO is to run a Yale PhD with no power or influence over the party. How that translates into a candidate that can clean up corruption and relate to regular people, I have no idea.EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57675983683255112272017-12-07T11:53:34.185+00:002017-12-07T11:53:34.185+00:00It has not gone viral yet Shawn, but the music mig...It has not gone viral yet Shawn, but the music might inspire a few more ideas:)<br /><br />TMM on YouTube... <br /><br />https://youtu.be/7UhF8SqGZKYSkrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78390008077626707692017-12-07T07:06:32.905+00:002017-12-07T07:06:32.905+00:00Simple trail of a stop after every $3 of gains fro...Simple trail of a stop after every $3 of gains from entry on an initial 3/1 reward to risk ratio.<br /><a href="https://goldenslot.gclubslot.com" title="Goldenslot" rel="nofollow">Goldenslot</a><br /><a href="https://slot-online.sss88.com" title="สล็อตออนไลน์" rel="nofollow">สล็อตออนไลน์</a><br /><a href="https://gclubasia.com/" title="gclub" rel="nofollow">Gclub</a><br />Nakamaruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14573643596543511066noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21778242206000962782017-12-07T03:51:26.779+00:002017-12-07T03:51:26.779+00:00Since John McAfee has wagered a lot of "skin&...Since John McAfee has wagered a lot of "skin" to the trade, I would have to suggest that the top trade for 2018 might be Bitcoin.<br /><br />McAfee tweeted a few days ago: "When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong." -- John McAfee, a few days ago<br /><br />That last sentence in his tweet says it all, methinks.Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64158696384345238232017-12-07T00:47:32.304+00:002017-12-07T00:47:32.304+00:00Thanks for pointing out that article Shawn.
Can&#...Thanks for pointing out that article Shawn.<br /><br />Can't say I have any form in >3-month views. Besides just being long GOOG (own the world's best-and-brightest for a mere 21x '18 earnings), which is more stock pick than macro trade, I'll re-iterate long EURCHF. It's the only macro trade I've stayed long (via options) for over 4 months now, so it's got that going for it. Thesis is "Morning in Europe" and global growth draws out Swiss capital, pension funds start lifting hedges, etc.. Given where SEK is trading now, SEKCHF worth considering as an enhancement (I'm short EURSEK in cash, but it's more a trading position).<br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35657206992873231762017-12-06T21:44:42.512+00:002017-12-06T21:44:42.512+00:00Maybe a bit of a stringed bet, but I still like th...Maybe a bit of a stringed bet, but I still like the following:<br />-Short Gold short USD/JPY spread trade <br />-long European equties short US equities spread trade<br />-Long DXY<br />Using hard Commodities as a hedge when/where needed. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7290163033291520162017-12-06T18:20:56.971+00:002017-12-06T18:20:56.971+00:00My top trade of 2018: buy XOP @ $34.65 (current pr...My top trade of 2018: buy XOP @ $34.65 (current price) with a target @ $51 and a stop @ $29.40 and trail the stop up $1 for every $3 of gains.<br /><br />Fundamentals: unloved, under-owned, misunderstood, pegged to WTI at a perceived ceiling of $50 (which looks more like the floor now), grossly undervalued at current underlying commodity price level. <br />Cuts, cuts, cuts... Biggest beneficiary of upcoming tax cuts for two reasons: direct - 15% haircut off of its current corp tax, indirect - more disposable income in consumers' pockets will translate into longer miles driven and therefore higher demand for gasoline. OPEC output cuts extension is going to drive hungry oil customers around the world towards US producers. Asia is putting huge orders in for US shale and Gulf of Mexico oil.<br /><br />Trade management... Simple trail of a stop after every $3 of gains from entry on an initial 3/1 reward to risk ratio. I would scale out of position taking profits in thirds or quarters. For those who like to leverage with options I would buy a long-dated call spread on a day like today when they are whacking long (lower) side of the bracket. If you like to buy the underlying, like to hold for longer but want to lock in the profits, instead of selling the underlying you could sell a call once the scaleout price is achieved. Endless possibilities of hedging with options, you could also do a collar to protect (wrap) your underlying once your price objective scaleouts have been met. A hard stop at $29.40 is a must.<br /><br />Good luck!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66620237419200643532017-12-06T17:51:53.464+00:002017-12-06T17:51:53.464+00:00let's say I enjoyed watching second baby daugh...let's say I enjoyed watching second baby daughter grow more than the Trumpopium tape<br /><br />will come back when markets are markets again ;)Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48840291244578303652017-12-06T17:12:40.399+00:002017-12-06T17:12:40.399+00:00Back from exile Nick?Back from exile Nick?BTC to the moonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14320330306090598245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62667003706332349482017-12-06T15:04:30.204+00:002017-12-06T15:04:30.204+00:00@Martin, good point, my memory let me down there.....@Martin, good point, my memory let me down there....I don't have the underlying piece, but looking back at the bloomberg article it says the Japanese are selling the front end, and domestic pension funds are buying the long end. From my perspective the net result is the same--I don't find it particluarly relevant where the flows are coming from-- to me the Japanese flow in the front end is less relevant that the substantial flow/demand for duration in the long end that is disconnected from long bonds elsewhere and the move higher oil prices. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2500027752197123012017-12-06T14:33:20.874+00:002017-12-06T14:33:20.874+00:00Nicoooo!@@
Nicoooo!@@<br /><br /><br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com