tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3696741265769652398..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: On the huntMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82506835835664424082008-10-02T23:09:00.000+01:002008-10-02T23:09:00.000+01:00you're talking A or H (or both)?you're talking A or H (or both)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48596008338474686562008-10-02T13:15:00.000+01:002008-10-02T13:15:00.000+01:00Sharpe, I hear ya, but for me Chinese equities fai...Sharpe, I hear ya, but for me Chinese equities fail on two basic criteria that I think are important these days: transparency and liquidity.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81166543474616538662008-10-02T11:19:00.000+01:002008-10-02T11:19:00.000+01:00MM- I think Chinese equities here are a very inter...MM- I think Chinese equities here are a very interesting play re: EM going for growth. China was the first to see inflation and is the first coming out. PBOC has already started cutting and soon may relax loan quotas. Government is in a tremendous fiscal position to deal with the slowdown. Banking system is relatively insulated from the troubles elsewhere and loan to deposit ratios are quite reasonable. Also, China is in the unique position in EM that it saw relatively little by way of western foreign portfolio flows. Notice that USD/CNY spot has been quite stable.<BR/><BR/>For a variety of reasons I think the story of China's impending doom is quite an exaggeration. Retail sales have actually been strengthening and, while export growth is slowing it is hardly falling off a cliff. In fact August was China's largest trade surplus ever; I believe China is now the only non-energy exporter running a trade surplus. H shares are trading at 11X for what is still a great growth story.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90916982831877591502008-10-02T05:29:00.000+01:002008-10-02T05:29:00.000+01:00Anon @ 12.49, don't forget to pin your name tag on...Anon @ 12.49, don't forget to pin your name tag on your shirt before you go to your "real job" tomorrow. I really don't have much tolerance for cretins, so please rest assured that further trolling will be deleted forthwith.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4545166785277530902008-10-02T01:31:00.000+01:002008-10-02T01:31:00.000+01:00I am getting very enticed to sell treas buy agenci...I am getting very enticed to sell treas buy agencies.. Bbg anywhere not working for me right now but i believe the ticker is FNMGS3 Index. That is the 3 year spread. Was at 145 when I went home today. Take a look at a 10 year chart and tell me that it doesn't look enticing.<BR/><BR/>The obvious play for the American consumer is to short XLY but seeing as you can't do that I'm not exactly sure. This has to be the most compelling play in my PA (not running institutional money)<BR/><BR/>NYAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19706889711016105552008-10-02T00:49:00.000+01:002008-10-02T00:49:00.000+01:00Macro, It won't be long now before you have to...Macro,<BR/><BR/> It won't be long now before you have to get a real job, creating real value for someone, rather than the paper shuffling, casino gambling crap that has provided you a living up till now. Welcome to the real world. Oh yeah, welcome to the real world salary scale as well. dmc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64610258127562731572008-10-01T22:46:00.000+01:002008-10-01T22:46:00.000+01:00I am long fixed income out to wazoo since I think ...I am long fixed income out to wazoo since I think capitulation will be involuntary, if not tomorrow then certainly by year-end. This trade has actually been working for quite a while now, despite the big chunk 'o change it cost me in the spring.<BR/><BR/>The trade that I find very intriguing is shorting the EUR. This was a very frustrating currency for me because I was very right and very bearish up at 1.60 and yet failed overall to make any money whatsoever.<BR/><BR/>What I like about it now is, will the strains of the global economy not upset the apple cart? If our bloody congress can't pass a bill setting up a liquidity facility, how the hell will Europe come to the rescue of their fat bloated banks? And how will the strains on the financial system feel to Spain and Ireland when they're already choking on 4.25% money in the face of a real estate collapse?<BR/><BR/>No idea when to enter, let alone where to set stops.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72764971640658225102008-10-01T21:23:00.000+01:002008-10-01T21:23:00.000+01:00My Dear MM - here is a trade idea for you: Buy Mor...My Dear MM - here is a trade idea for you: Buy Morgan Stanley bonds. April 2011 20.11 pct annual. Buy bonds, clip the coupon, and head back to Madrid for some Sangria.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39482221835243795942008-10-01T21:04:00.000+01:002008-10-01T21:04:00.000+01:00MM- Outstanding post. Thanks. Market stateside se...MM- Outstanding post. Thanks. Market stateside seems to be in wait and see mode. However, small business owners are really squeezed. Those who borrow to manage cash flow are having trouble getting funds. Liquidity assistance has not trickled down to the grass roots level. Nothing new here, but it is offered as real time intell from the foxhole where cash is king. Dunno how this translates into a trading strategy other than to be short equities and to maintain a tactical cash position.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34600311784981781542008-10-01T19:04:00.000+01:002008-10-01T19:04:00.000+01:00let's just say that liquidity will have to improve...<I>let's just say that liquidity will have to improve quite a bit before we can label it "execrable."</I>Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20755418915452078902008-10-01T19:02:00.000+01:002008-10-01T19:02:00.000+01:00Does anyone know why DJI jumped from 10726 to 1085...Does anyone know why DJI jumped from 10726 to 10859 in 59 secpnds???mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63717976491106841252008-10-01T18:35:00.000+01:002008-10-01T18:35:00.000+01:00Anon@4:19Some reading on the Scandinavian banking ...Anon@4:19<BR/><BR/>Some reading on the Scandinavian banking crisis: <BR/><BR/>http://www.bof.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/2001/dp2001_6.htm<BR/>(you can look for more using the keywords)<BR/>http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2002/091102.htm<BR/>(speech by Stefan Ingves, nowadays the president of Sweden's CB)<BR/>http://www.riksbank.se/templates/speech.aspx?id=1722<BR/>http://209.85.135.104/search?q=cache:4NEfytnXD8oJ:www.clevelandfed.org/research/PolicyDis/pdp21.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79433575051424203942008-10-01T18:34:00.000+01:002008-10-01T18:34:00.000+01:00OR more in answer to your qn:A Norwegian perspecti...OR more in answer to your qn:<BR/><BR/>A Norwegian perspective on banking crisis resolution<BR/>Kristin Gulbransen<BR/>http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____13822.aspx<BR/><BR/>Government ownership of banks - the Norwegian experience<BR/>Jarle Bergo<BR/>http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____13819.aspxAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9481052052671886342008-10-01T18:29:00.000+01:002008-10-01T18:29:00.000+01:00"PS: anyone got recommended reading on the Sc..."PS: anyone got recommended reading on the Scandi banking crisis and how the government handled it?"<BR/><BR/>both recommended, both short and readable:<BR/><BR/>The IMF paper:<BR/>http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08224.pdf<BR/><BR/>Reinhart & Rogoff:<BR/>http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Is_The_US_Subprime_Crisis_So_Different.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57317584442409620442008-10-01T18:22:00.000+01:002008-10-01T18:22:00.000+01:00Ian, the number of my positions obviously depends ...Ian, the number of my positions obviously depends on the condition of the market and the number and strength of my views and confidence.<BR/><BR/>Currently I am running risk in 10 different strategies, one of which is a "catch all" book for tactical FX trading.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45411322230776223202008-10-01T18:18:00.000+01:002008-10-01T18:18:00.000+01:00@Anon 4:19Look here http://www.rgemonitor.com/ spo...@Anon 4:19<BR/>Look here http://www.rgemonitor.com/ spotlight issue #14 "Lessons from Sweden`s respeonse..." Some of the linked documents are written by people who where involved at the time and/or have political agendas (Bildt/Bäckström).<BR/><BR/>http://www.riksbank.eu/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/PoV_sve/eng/qr96_1.pdf is another good document, written by someone who was in charge at the time (Ingves).<BR/><BR/>Much of the documentation is only available in Swedish obviously...upcoming boom market for Swedish to English translators? :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4122668132921271392008-10-01T17:33:00.000+01:002008-10-01T17:33:00.000+01:00MM- How many different positions (or I guess more ...MM- How many different positions (or I guess more broadly ideas) do you generally hold in your portfolio at one time?Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12325797293534490304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80139888215941703712008-10-01T16:24:00.000+01:002008-10-01T16:24:00.000+01:00I think the way to play the falling consumer is to...I think the way to play the falling consumer is to either short WalMart or short the XLP (which is mostly Walmart and P & G). Everyone thinks Walmart is immune.. its not. Its the biggest retailer in the world, and is now pretty much just a Grocery store, with even lower margins than it is used to. It will shrink IMO.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55426449358242979332008-10-01T16:19:00.000+01:002008-10-01T16:19:00.000+01:00PS: anyone got recommended reading on the Scandi b...PS: anyone got recommended reading on the Scandi banking crisis and how the government handled it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53839247425081876142008-10-01T16:15:00.000+01:002008-10-01T16:15:00.000+01:00Any thoughts on convergence trade between US and G...Any thoughts on convergence trade between US and German or UK 1 year govt yields? Best way of implementing such a strategy? <BR/><BR/>I assume one of 2 things happen <BR/>1) this financial problem persists for some time. severe risk aversion spreads further to Europe/Asia, causing a deflationary slowdown and yield collapse in Europe. <BR/>2) we look back at this episode as point of maximum fear in which case there is an allocation away from US treasuries into US equities in coming months. <BR/><BR/>PS: my money is on scenario 1). <BR/><BR/>the best analysis/commentary I have seen on rescue package is www.rgemonitor.com. if you have the time listen to the interview Roubini did with Bloomberg TV (linked in article). If you've got even further time dig out the IMF paper on financial crises and understand the alternatives to buying toxic assets. i.e buying preferred stock. I am surprised that more of these recommendations from individuals such as Roubini who have so far forecasted this situation very well are not featured in the proposal in front of the politicians currently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19226097904720407632008-10-01T16:06:00.000+01:002008-10-01T16:06:00.000+01:00Anon @ 4.05, should I be worried that I, too, am l...Anon @ 4.05, should I be worried that I, too, am looking for a bounce in a couple of weeks?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53339860798802063242008-10-01T16:05:00.000+01:002008-10-01T16:05:00.000+01:00***What Macro Man has yet to figure out is how to ...***What Macro Man has yet to figure out is how to profitably play the death of the consumer in terms of financial asset prices, given that he doesn't do single name stocks or sector ETFs.***<BR/><BR/>IMHO, short Nasdaq 100 or Kospi 100 to play the death of consumer spending. Discretionary tech spending AAPL, RIMM, Samsung, LG has held up well but I see cliff risk come Christmas....especially if a lot of the current 0%/no payments for two years offers promoted by the big box retailers/Amazon.com disappear.<BR/><BR/>Too chicken to short now, spanked by bottom fishing on Monday...waiting for the much anticipated reflex bounce come mid-October.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78841575672363691322008-10-01T15:50:00.000+01:002008-10-01T15:50:00.000+01:00PS: commodities = gold or platinum. Nothing else. ...PS: commodities = gold or platinum. Nothing else. Playing with agricultural commodities kills lives.mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40328368299969740192008-10-01T15:45:00.000+01:002008-10-01T15:45:00.000+01:00I'm not into equities but I would stay away of so-...I'm not into equities but I would stay away of so-called "emerging" markets. With the dead of the US consumer and with the EU consumer not on a spending spree, there's not much left to emerge. FX and commodities are interesting..mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15711136950037863282008-10-01T14:05:00.000+01:002008-10-01T14:05:00.000+01:00Anon @ 1.28 , I love the idea of wavefronts, but a...Anon @ 1.28 , I love the idea of wavefronts, but as of yet I cannot trade them for prospectus-related reasons.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.com