tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3630038942604186152..comments2024-03-29T09:14:16.561+00:00Comments on Macro Man: CounterfactualsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23080976865601170122014-04-22T19:45:13.353+01:002014-04-22T19:45:13.353+01:00Welcome to the anti-scientific world of modern eco...Welcome to the anti-scientific world of modern economics, where demagogues clothe their ideological preconceptions in stupefying mathematical complexity (Woodford, Eggertson, pretty much everyone regarded positively by the academy) or an overwhelming quantity of meaninglessly poor quality data (Pilketty, Reinhart & Rogoff, etc.). The modern academy pushes an idiotic orthodoxy which bends first-rate minds to insipid, destructively illogical conclusions which simultaneously attempt to emulate real sciences while managing to banish any semblance of empirical inquiry from their research. It's too bad they either regard historical empirical evidence as being irrelevant anecdotes or, if consulted at all, as a field for cherry picking one's favored conclusions (i.e. every paper Bernanke ever wrote on the depression). <br /><br />There is probably nothing sadder than seeing intellectualism reduced from the open-minded search for truth into a path-dependent quest to maintain orthodox incoherence, even as its failings continue to be ever more obvious. My only hope is that the next crisis is so stupefyingly catastrophic that we can finally be rid of 'macro prudential' regulation and aggressive central banking.Bleichroedernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9265869034681473472014-04-21T23:29:37.197+01:002014-04-21T23:29:37.197+01:00"Not a single note from any civil servant or ..."Not a single note from any civil servant or politician present on the night of the infamous bank guarantee meeting in Government Buildings exists in the Department of An Taoiseach."<br /><br />"This was the startling admission from the Government last night as detailed accounts from the four senior bankers who arrived at the building on the night of September 29 have emerged."<br /><br />"The bankers – former AIB chief executive Eugene Sheehy, his chairman Dermot Gleeson and their Bank of Ireland counterparts Brian Goggins and Richie Burrows – provided detailed accounts in 2010 about the roles they played in the meeting."<br /><br />http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fresh-insight-into-the-night-that-haunts-us-30201565.html<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24481109461177456682014-04-21T14:15:43.563+01:002014-04-21T14:15:43.563+01:00Well at least the fed has inspired the Japanese. W...Well at least the fed has inspired the Japanese. We shall see what helicopter Ben's theories impact in the real world very soon. <br /><br />As well they have also set the standard for the next crisis. Emergency rate cuts, blah, keep selling Mortimer. I'm waiting for asset purchases to bail me out. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78831134616750060822014-04-21T12:51:02.244+01:002014-04-21T12:51:02.244+01:00@Whammer Yes, in his testimonies Bernanke did men...@Whammer Yes, in his testimonies Bernanke did mention that a credible fiscal path would be useful...but always qualified with the sentiment "it's not my job to tell you what to do." Sort of like the parent on the airplane who pleads with their braying offspring to be quiet rather than reading them the riot act.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82432251623579327262014-04-21T12:48:06.718+01:002014-04-21T12:48:06.718+01:00The big guy over @ his blog recently deconstructed...The big guy over @ his blog recently deconstructed the topic of Counterfactuals.<br />It's just too depressing for me, much rather think in terms going forward.<br />Fowardfactuals, what do you do when you've exhausted close to all the variables of counter-counterfactuals? <br /><br />Makes sense?<br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60221504946284684022014-04-21T09:09:23.826+01:002014-04-21T09:09:23.826+01:00There is at least one counterfactual CBs will not ...There is at least one counterfactual CBs will not deny: "If we had not stepped in courageously when we did, the world would have gone down the tube." To which some might add, "...and by now come out the other end much better off."<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87140166536005048782014-04-21T08:57:53.663+01:002014-04-21T08:57:53.663+01:00C Says,
Indeed ,given that we know even the most s...C Says,<br />Indeed ,given that we know even the most successful in our world get it right only some of the time we must conclude that central bankers getting it right all of the time are not of this world. They must be overdue for a rise. Would that be in pay ,or aboard a rocket you can decide.<br /><br />In favour of the former though we should note that they have never failed to rescue a bust that they helped to create.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79138685320784662072014-04-21T08:31:48.997+01:002014-04-21T08:31:48.997+01:00Good points. In the UK, the counterfactual is now...Good points. In the UK, the counterfactual is now the go-to excuse wheeled out by 'Professor' Blanchflower for every loony-tune forecast he gets 100% wrong. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69156354448656444992014-04-21T08:12:44.019+01:002014-04-21T08:12:44.019+01:00One possible quibble -- my recollection is that th...One possible quibble -- my recollection is that the Bernanke repeatedly exhorted the Congress to do something on the fiscal front -- build some bridges, pave some streets with cashmere, etc. He was completely ignored, because freedom. <br /><br />WhammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com