tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3557635154449331799..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Dionne Warwick sings the Good Friday Payroll BluesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34589239623937164262015-04-07T03:13:28.498+01:002015-04-07T03:13:28.498+01:00speaking of Yen, when's the next relevant BOJ ...speaking of Yen, when's the next relevant BOJ day?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44653339988461595062015-04-06T23:40:16.097+01:002015-04-06T23:40:16.097+01:00Taxing bank deposits, or charging banks for lendin...Taxing bank deposits, or charging banks for lending them its aaa rating?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8436359774897869162015-04-06T22:15:03.724+01:002015-04-06T22:15:03.724+01:00Seems Australia is on it's way to begin taxing...Seems Australia is on it's way to begin taxing bank deposits starting January 1, 2016. How soon before the U.S follows?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30746106960476114292015-04-06T22:08:45.294+01:002015-04-06T22:08:45.294+01:00Q1’s Corporate Bond Issuance:
2009 → $399B
2010...Q1’s Corporate Bond Issuance:<br /><br />2009 → $399B<br /><br />2010 → $338B<br /><br />2011 → $429B<br /><br />2012 → $457B<br /><br />2013 → $448B<br /><br />2014 → $429B<br /><br />2015 → $496B ( C'mon, who would have predicted this )<br /><br />IG CDX closed at 63.1bps last Thursday. A whole new round of short covering from the credit bears if 60bps gets taken out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47676182387895952672015-04-06T21:29:38.598+01:002015-04-06T21:29:38.598+01:00In the context of FX it was notable that the USD b...In the context of FX it was notable that the USD bounce today was much weaker than the jerk higher in equities. Keep an eye on USDJPY as traders have reduced JPY shorts abruptly these last few weeks.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26137747214464407912015-04-06T21:27:36.775+01:002015-04-06T21:27:36.775+01:00I see one of the market's great momo merchants...I see one of the market's great momo merchants and trend following artists may have just stepped off the dollar express and is following some of us punters into emerging markets and Yoorp....<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marctomarket.com/2015/04/great-graphic-stock-rotation.html" rel="nofollow"> Stock Rotation </a><br /><br />Actually happy to have that confirmation, from a fairly smart FX pontificator.. no offense, mate, read your stuff every day... quality.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15354850757246219792015-04-06T21:18:16.103+01:002015-04-06T21:18:16.103+01:00First of all, washed, brilliant call on today. Wel...First of all, washed, brilliant call on today. Well done, sir.<br /><br />But.... I think Polemic is right. Miss Whippy at work, and just when Mr Market thinks he is getting ready for the happy ending she is going to drop him out the window....<br /><br />Mr Market is actually making a series of lower highs in 2015, so unless he breaks out into the wild blue yonder in the morning, today is just misdirection. <br /><br />We can all be as cynical as we want here (and as a group we certainly are) but earnings are ahead, and earnings matter, and earnings are sensitive to the $. So for now we are staying with our game plan, which is long Stoxx and emerging markets and short QQQ. We had a pretty good day today as the reflation trades had a decent bounce.<br /><br />If you look at the bigger picture on QQQ, it just about made it back to the 50 day, and the chart still looks bearish. There are way too many bulls and dip buyers.... <br /><br />Hipper - too much drama, mon ami. LB sees no end game, no US lift off (Jobs? Helloooooooo?), no Grexit, no TEOTWAWKI, we are just going to grind on with faux growth, low rate, TWINE scenarios for a very long time.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85239639477270901372015-04-06T20:13:11.508+01:002015-04-06T20:13:11.508+01:00Big intraday moves get everyone excited but you on...Big intraday moves get everyone excited but you only have to expand your chart to say 4 months to see that we are still in ranges in a flat though huuugely whippy year. Miss Whippy is whipping Mr Market but the leather straps are still holding him to the bedstead. <br /><br />But looking at today's action alone you would have thought that Mr Market has seen, out of the corner of his tear stained eye, Miss Inflation enter the room.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51680029905624854902015-04-06T19:53:12.506+01:002015-04-06T19:53:12.506+01:00Mr.T - I mentioned earlier on Friday someone was b...Mr.T - I mentioned earlier on Friday someone was buying up Emini. No Europe today to spread against. Market walks up on low volume. Happens so often on European holidays. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87872248377230718342015-04-06T19:37:54.920+01:002015-04-06T19:37:54.920+01:00I’d still say, gun to head, for a long term scenar...I’d still say, gun to head, for a long term scenario the liftoff is still a likely deal. The alternative is that rates globally get killed and never again rise to react to any kind of positive turns in the economic cycle. I think that would one way or the other be a prelude for the extreme end game of the whole financial system, but I it’s hard to believe that we’re at that point –at least yet. So unless we believe that the end point has already arrived for the global financial system, there needs to be a liftoff, and the US economic cycle I believe is already in a very mature phase – it would be a very bad signal to waste yet another year. And there will be more soft patches guaranteed, but I think the pressure to get this thing off the ground is going to turn out triumphant in the end. I’m just saying liftoff should definitely be a done deal but how long the normalization flight will continue, that’s probably completely another issue. It’s even possible that it will turn out to be a deja-vu – a la Trichet in 2011. Precisely for the reason that the economic upturn phase is at a mature stage and EM’s are getting saturated as can be witnessed by the great shift in China, which can rely consistently less on exports and foreign investments.<br /><br />I’d like to recall the phrase “international developments” from the Statement. It was clear that the dollar had quickly (start of 2015) become a major concern, probably the FED knew that a strong dollar would ultimately become a major headwind for global emerging markets, leading to problems for their major import client Europe and it would hinder domestic exports development, ultimately leading to further domestic consumer headwinds. Europe is now showing some signs of life which and might soon be handed the baton which – if persisting – would create a good opportunity for the hike and alleviate the worrisome “international developments”.<br /><br />On Europe, I think corporate earnings will get a one time boost from FX, but that will be pretty much it. Local emerging export market growth will turn anemic or even negative, which will ultimately start feeding back to the major extra-EU exporter consumer confidence indicators. And when the German consumer starts getting wary, be assured that it will do no good for the peripheral parts which count on intra-EU trade from the extra-EU surplus countries to keep their own current account afloat. I’d guess the stuttering in data starts within a year from now, quite likely much earlier. However it is quite possible that the market won’t notice this as a warning sign, DAX, EUROSTOXX and Co. will continue to run for many months after the expected FX boosted earnings materialize expecting for more. I think there will still be new highs to come but it might not be such a bad idea to start cashing sometime this year, definitely before the stuttering starts becoming more persistent and apparent.<br /><br />So I’d guess EZ will continue to run for some time with the FX boost, QE and improving data which might last for a little while and the baton will be handed over. That’s should be the window of opportunity for the Fed while everyone’s looking the other way, but soon after that the safe heaven trade will again resume as it will become apparent that emerging markets start showing signs of trouble, meaning big troubles for Europe, and ultimately the late stage economic growth in US turns into a decline.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79333724467106454832015-04-06T19:25:19.569+01:002015-04-06T19:25:19.569+01:00So what do people make of the Friday/Monday discon...So what do people make of the Friday/Monday disconnect? It's tempting to see friday as "without quant" and monday as "with quant". Many futures-specific models rely on cross-asset correlations anyways so were turned off friday.<br /><br />Or is this Dudley effect? I cant imagine what he said was much of a surprise.<br /><br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25144191522335721402015-04-06T17:24:52.336+01:002015-04-06T17:24:52.336+01:00All very interesting folks, now just BTFD already....All very interesting folks, now just BTFD already. I will be surprised if equities aren't pushing new all time highs soon.<br /><br />Kudos to washedup who completely nailed today's move.FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90518533979134174112015-04-06T16:08:14.480+01:002015-04-06T16:08:14.480+01:00hey - any of u haters still think bad news is bad ...hey - any of u haters still think bad news is bad news???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89856977876365483762015-04-06T15:10:19.048+01:002015-04-06T15:10:19.048+01:00Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA)...
Total cost of ...Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA)...<br /><br />Total cost of funds for all U.S. banks was just $11 billion in Q4 2014 (versus over $110 billion in 2008)<br /><br />and banks earned $119 billion in gross interest income in the same quarter <br /><br />"..the best way to improve the returns attainable by savers was to do what the Fed actually did: keep rates low"<br />Ben Bernanke March 30, 2015 <br /><br />Some day , the American people will wipe that smirk off Ben's face.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30996348862310223662015-04-06T14:49:18.199+01:002015-04-06T14:49:18.199+01:00The Fed's 2% inflation target has undershot fo...The Fed's 2% inflation target has undershot for the 34th straight month. The Fed must be so envious of Russia right now where the CPI rose 16.9% from a year earlier in March.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29384166488162980142015-04-06T09:55:59.274+01:002015-04-06T09:55:59.274+01:00Japan admits to fabricating wage growth data. (BOJ...Japan admits to fabricating wage growth data. (BOJ and Japanese treasury explicitly monetising Japanese debt).<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-03/japan-admits-fabricating-2014-wage-growth-dataAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13473610518717416732015-04-06T05:56:54.082+01:002015-04-06T05:56:54.082+01:00LB, reading the finance papers today I came across...LB, reading the finance papers today I came across the details of the latest must have..polo ponies..<br /><br />I inquired further, result..nothing there for me now to invest in..all gone.Over and out.<br /><br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64916318491477124822015-04-06T00:04:39.777+01:002015-04-06T00:04:39.777+01:00+10 for this though, Pol:
"they all have the...+10 for this though, Pol:<br /><br />"they all have their extrapolationist rulers out saying woo hoo here we go for a bull run"<br /><br />LOL.<br /><br />Washed - I think right now bad news really is bad news, not just b/c we are short, because weak earnings are coming at us and there is a price level where earnings do matter, at least for those investing in companies that make money. A little bit of mini-capital flight is ahead for the US, a nasty surprise for many. Enjoy...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10141254895152162262015-04-06T00:00:09.279+01:002015-04-06T00:00:09.279+01:00To be fair, Wendy Liu isn't a 12 year old and ...To be fair, Wendy Liu isn't a 12 year old and she did call for China easing last October. She is at Nomura, which isn't generally a headless chicken shop..<br /><br />http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000319901Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34027622899504428762015-04-05T23:36:08.929+01:002015-04-05T23:36:08.929+01:00And the pisser is that these amateur China analyst...And the pisser is that these amateur China analysts could turn out to be right for all the wrong reasons and despite their lack of chops.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22860478869897756932015-04-05T22:49:32.708+01:002015-04-05T22:49:32.708+01:00TBH this China commentary just makes me want to go...TBH this China commentary just makes me want to go and smash a china analyst nose or two. Look at the general commentary a year ago. It turned out to be very wrong. Now things are heading up ( and we haven't had any real change in the broad background other than CH slowing and policy adaptation to that) and they all have their extrapolationist rulers out saying woo hoo here we go for a bull run. It's complete CNBC amateur hour and they shouldn't be let out of their kindergartens. <br /> <br /><br />Humph... PolPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37488982199920359232015-04-05T22:41:52.194+01:002015-04-05T22:41:52.194+01:00Ms Liu .. Start of a 3 year bull market? where wer...Ms Liu .. Start of a 3 year bull market? where were you last year when some of us were JBTFD? we are a year in already.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34247302925383735932015-04-05T22:40:54.856+01:002015-04-05T22:40:54.856+01:00
Guillaume Chatain, head of equity solutions at JP...<br />Guillaume Chatain, head of equity solutions at JPMorgan Private Bank in Asia:<br />“When I look at China A shares I’m not necessarily seeing a bubble yet. It’s not a crazy rally. Compared with 2007, it’s nothing. Yes, we have the start of a bubble, but I don’t think we’re at a level yet where we should really be afraid.”<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21987022546786467272015-04-05T22:37:32.796+01:002015-04-05T22:37:32.796+01:00High quality global journalism requires investment...High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ae02f268-d81c-11e4-80de-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3WTOOpOO9<br /><br />"Nomura strategist Wendy Liu says this year marks the start of a three-year bull market for Chinese stocks, with a rally built on reforms, stabilising economic growth and improving property sales. Ms Liu expects the MSCI China index to rise 60 per cent between the start of this year now and 2017."<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54485461042310351942015-04-05T15:09:35.739+01:002015-04-05T15:09:35.739+01:00Is this the new, new thing?
There are now approxi...Is this the new, new thing?<br /><br />There are now approximately 425 companies spread across 64 sub-categories involved in crypto-tech computing, decentralized services, cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and the Blockchain<br /><br />http://crypto.silk.co/<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com