tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post345425163330437490..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Anarchy in the UKMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10256739109217258472016-07-06T05:51:02.951+01:002016-07-06T05:51:02.951+01:00How mad are capital markets? I mean, now that no m...How mad are capital markets? I mean, now that no matter how bearish one is that you simply can't stay short overnight - just in case a central banker brandishes an imaginary bazooka?<br /><br />Usdjpy challenging 100 again this week. The falling £ has really helped out LB's long UUP position, which we had entered based on an entirely different scenario. Better lucky than good...<br /><br />Bond prices seem a little stretched here, to say the least. No cheeky shorts yet, just watching and waiting for the tap-in.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12286068813331954142016-07-06T00:22:46.877+01:002016-07-06T00:22:46.877+01:00Bank of England tells banks to cut rainy-day fund ...Bank of England tells banks to cut rainy-day fund to boost lending<br /><br />Carney: UK facing ‘period of uncertainty and economic adjustment’<br /><br />Yeh, real smart of you. It will hit you right in your face.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33823192607783242862016-07-05T21:51:10.398+01:002016-07-05T21:51:10.398+01:00Abee, EU episode will be a non-event when countrie...Abee, EU episode will be a non-event when countries realize that being Yennish doesn't fit all, it's not a unisex monetary device. And if we don't invite the New York (bankers) spice girls to the intervention party I get feeling they might handbag me! <br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3125814057574185092016-07-05T21:42:43.898+01:002016-07-05T21:42:43.898+01:00Lets hope you are right on rates LB. If not, we ar...Lets hope you are right on rates LB. If not, we are going to get ugly fast. Looking at chart of German 2 year (schatz) it freaking amazing. The zero bound is clearly broken. Trend monkeys dont care. But at some point its just an accident waiting to happen on the reverse side, or maybe I just dont understand the inherit safety in German bunds that is worth -60bps<br /><br />maybe some better bond math experts could help me calculate when the negative carry actually equals the price momentum. Ie at what rate of change does the total return turn negative. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88368546836011741252016-07-05T21:37:20.983+01:002016-07-05T21:37:20.983+01:00August 2011, recall the short sale ban in France, ...August 2011, recall the short sale ban in France, Italy, Spain, Belgium. Seems so long ago now, the sovereign crisis.<br /><br />BMPS short sale implemented this evening. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42648869826857239182016-07-05T21:04:42.460+01:002016-07-05T21:04:42.460+01:00http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-0...http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-05/goldman-s-wishful-thinking-won-t-end-rut-in-bond-yields<br /><br />Goldman Can't Wish Away Yield Rut<br /><br />Dougie's TBT is down 2.5% today....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63061956338623017032016-07-05T21:01:21.989+01:002016-07-05T21:01:21.989+01:00Rates have moved a long way very fast. Going to be...Rates have moved a long way very fast. Going to be contrarian here and suggest the jobs numbers are OK and we see some give back in fixed income this week. Keep an eye on Italian banks, UK financials though... accidents waiting to happen, or perhaps clearly already in motion.<br /><br />Took profits today on USO and IWM positions that we entered or added to on Friday morning last week. Back to the Hammock again with a nice pile of profit .... we expect more moves in FX this week, with the dollar being the likely beneficiary.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73702943767543995762016-07-05T19:33:56.711+01:002016-07-05T19:33:56.711+01:00Interesting post MM. I've been long goldminers...Interesting post MM. I've been long goldminers for a while and thinking about the current run as well. Had to take a little off but I agree, this run might extend a while. But hard to classify it as a new bull market just yet. But this sure is an explosive first move. For those more risk, I expect Bitcoin etc to be the real beneficiaries if Gold/Silver really start moving. Chinese love bitcoin! and its appeal to tehcnologists and punters alike is a volatile mixture<br /><br />that aside, and my fundamental view that oil has bottomed (though can easily still go back to $40) the biggest news we should all be paying attention to is surely US 10 year interest rates making new lows. 30year already new lows. XLF going to feel more pain if rates really start dropping (NFP predictions?)<br /><br />US Equities feel weak. I still think new highs could be in the cards but this defensive led rally isnt anything I really want to buy<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37794013097825820362016-07-05T18:37:15.125+01:002016-07-05T18:37:15.125+01:00"...an implosion of the Italian banking syste..."...an implosion of the Italian banking system would cascade into other European banks and the funding market, creating disorderly markets and lower sentiment causing a slowdown in economic growth and also prices..." - Saxo<br /><br />The EU is gonna implode folks (let's hope so anyway)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63044959635558599602016-07-05T17:18:07.826+01:002016-07-05T17:18:07.826+01:00Indeed Anon @ 4.32.
What could possibly go wrong...Indeed Anon @ 4.32. <br /><br />What could possibly go wrong offering daily liquidity on a property fund?<br /><br />Add to that extended periods of price dislocation which causes funding issues, ala LTCM, Peleton, MF Global et al and it's an absolute recipe for disaster which has all sorts of negative knock on effects.<br /><br />Justabeancounternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37154027856403366502016-07-05T16:32:20.955+01:002016-07-05T16:32:20.955+01:00Aviva/Standard Life/etc property funds -- when wil...Aviva/Standard Life/etc property funds -- when will people ever learn!!<br />They invest in physical property yet offer folks daily liquidity -- their demise is a result of their liquidity mismatch and I suspect that like the Bear Stearns funds (back in 2007), they won't be the first...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83687950273531356482016-07-05T15:54:20.389+01:002016-07-05T15:54:20.389+01:005yr UST from 1.4% to .94% in last 5 weeks ......
...5yr UST from 1.4% to .94% in last 5 weeks ......<br /><br />lowest since taper tantrum in 2013<br /><br />British pound is now the eye of the storm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12288386487388190712016-07-05T15:46:00.856+01:002016-07-05T15:46:00.856+01:00Looking at bond yields every day and week it's...Looking at bond yields every day and week it's easy to figure out what the new theme song at CB meetings is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKggnBh2MdwAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82761258201749527512016-07-05T15:26:07.843+01:002016-07-05T15:26:07.843+01:00Spreads are back to normal; 17.50 - 17.80Spreads are back to normal; 17.50 - 17.80Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26325449044046712352016-07-05T15:09:31.420+01:002016-07-05T15:09:31.420+01:00All of a sudden bid ask spreads on $VIX futures we...All of a sudden bid ask spreads on $VIX futures weeklies blew up. Jul 27 bid ask now: 17.10 - 18.20<br />Not sure what happened.<br /><br />error404 Some here on the board think just like this guy...<br /><br />“The British have violated the rules. It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate.” European Parliament Chief Martin Schultz<br /><br />I mean who cares about a middle class plumber or waitress loosing their good paying jobs.<br /><br />Daniel Hannan certainly doesn't. He told the BBC’s Newsnight programme on Friday that free movement of workers to and from the UK should continue to ensure that Britain stayed part of the common market. “The idea of staying within a common market but outside the political integration, I think that is feasible,” said Mr Hannan. “It means free movement of labour.”<br /><br />The Brits are learning the hard way that one does not simply vote away tyranny. If they want to stop the cheap foreign from flooding into their country, they are going to have to seek other means.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34882483807280656412016-07-05T14:32:48.196+01:002016-07-05T14:32:48.196+01:00Farage was spot on to leave. The whole lot should ...Farage was spot on to leave. The whole lot should go. Bring in a new front line and leave the personal agenda's , animosity and aggravation brought about having to face each other in the office each day. Put another ginger and sporty girl on one side of the floor and put the rest of the sporty girls on the other and get on with backing winners :) amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72500451947692113772016-07-05T13:52:30.670+01:002016-07-05T13:52:30.670+01:00I'm only waiting to see how much are liquid cr...I'm only waiting to see how much are liquid credit instruments..<br /><br />is time to JBTFD? hello, can i go? where are you?TheBondStrategisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15654760354283741885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48514553470122705472016-07-05T13:32:14.355+01:002016-07-05T13:32:14.355+01:00"ealing" - I think I'll let that one..."ealing" - I think I'll let that one stand.....Celeriac1972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29856307831755610842016-07-05T13:31:02.958+01:002016-07-05T13:31:02.958+01:00Aviva have also suspended ealing in their Property...Aviva have also suspended ealing in their Property fund.<br /><br />Others to watch include Henderson, M&G, L&G, Threadneedle. All have funds with >£1bn. I expect they will all suspend dealing.<br /><br />Meanwhile the FCA has been driving bond managers wild for the last few years with questions about liquidity management etc. I'm not saying that there aren't any questions to answer, but global bond markets are somewhat more liquid than physical buildings...Celeriac1972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26986860958116318572016-07-05T13:14:38.820+01:002016-07-05T13:14:38.820+01:00Guys,where is it written that leaving the EU is tu...Guys,where is it written that leaving the EU is turning inwards. Somehow equates to turning back to times gone by?. Etcetera .<br />The concept of detaching from the EU was to be to enable the UK to seek more global relationships. That is, turning outwards. Likewise it has not been mooted that the UK wishes to deny Europeans access to the UK and its capital or employment markets. No, the idea is to have some semblance of control over that access. I very much doubt that any European currently working in the UK need worry about their ability to remain doing that.<br />What consistently surprises me is how people who are clearly intelligent still wish to engage discussing issues like this has though they are black or white. Ergo, the UK wishes to leave the EU then this must mean they wish to shut their doors to the world.<br />Come on guys you are almost certainly capable of better than this.<br />checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33617284552616211992016-07-05T12:46:57.227+01:002016-07-05T12:46:57.227+01:00http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8009b06-3fca-11e6-8716-...http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8009b06-3fca-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html#axzz4DX88sS7o<br /><br />Longest earnings recession since crisis looms for US shares<br /><br />...Lefty, thanks for the post. I think that the anons who feel that Brexit was a big mistake haven't seen the end of the EU union story quite yet. The north vs the south thingy that existed pre-brexit won't be any better without Britain...do you lads think this amalgam will flourish? Kinda reminds you of putting Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds together in one country and expecting it to flourish...Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16718779529206974232016-07-05T12:02:06.507+01:002016-07-05T12:02:06.507+01:00@Error404. As your name suggests, you are quite m...@Error404. As your name suggests, you are quite mistaken. "Sovereignty" and "taking our country back" is so 1950s, so small-minded and deluded... You live in the wrong century. Perhaps you should read the memo -- the very nature of global capitalism and how it will actually change when we hit the next Kondratieff cycle in the next decade or so, means that Britain will end up being the poor relation, insane in the membrane loser if it tries to isolate itself from the rest of the civilized world. Look at your politicians -- even the lying rats Johnson and Farage are abandonding ship. If they were so confident about the rosy future, they wouldn't be scrambling off faster than they can pronounce Great Britain. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91276100021809021012016-07-05T11:54:21.286+01:002016-07-05T11:54:21.286+01:00A nicely written piece MM,
I was intrigued so I h...A nicely written piece MM,<br /><br />I was intrigued so I had to search the net.<br /><br />After becoming a US citizen in 2013, it appears John Lydon slams the prospect of a Brexit as "suicidal."<br /><br />If you weren't sure if punk was dead? :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23732344209076096642016-07-05T11:45:00.449+01:002016-07-05T11:45:00.449+01:00Leftback@1017
While your first two paragraphs are...Leftback@1017<br /><br />While your first two paragraphs are straight down the mountain, para 3 wanders far off-piste and headlong into a pine tree called logic. Brexit - which our contemptible elite will anyway sabotage, after first doing immense and unnecessary damage to the real economy - is not about repatriating Polish plumbers or Spanish barristas. It's about recovering, sovereignty, freeing ourselves from an unnecessary and quite widely corrupt layer of government, and avoiding being sucked deeper into a doomed German-dominated superstate. Yes, one of the attractions of getting sovereignty back is to regain control of our borders, but where is it written that visas can't and won't be granted to your favoured nationalities of servant? (By the way, out here where I live in the backwoods there are plenty of 'first nation' people delivering perfectly good service and food. You ought to try it. We even have electricity.)<br /><br />Regarding SLI, it's difficult to feel much sympathy for the punters. Putting commercial property into a pooled vehicle and pretending it's a liquid investment is one of the more absurd forms of maturity transformation - rational only to a fund manager or finance graduate.Error404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23888258606252775292016-07-05T11:32:53.893+01:002016-07-05T11:32:53.893+01:00Leftback, I'm in Asia at the moment on hols, a...Leftback, I'm in Asia at the moment on hols, and the amount of Chinese, Japanese, Korean and Philippine people that have told me, they have bought sterling because it's so cheap, and planning to take vacation in UK, and visit Bigga Ben. Might go some way to explaining the bounce. Buy tourism related? Skrnoreply@blogger.com