tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3339928400654120119..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The CatalystMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79717476314474345772009-06-22T21:22:09.881+01:002009-06-22T21:22:09.881+01:00ah...a nice day for those of deflationary disposit...ah...a nice day for those of deflationary disposition. let's see if the trend has turned. hopefully I won;t have to do any mroe trades this week...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73091226669065450642009-06-22T20:10:48.105+01:002009-06-22T20:10:48.105+01:00I've got to think in this case that Mr. Occam ...I've got to think in this case that Mr. Occam has got it. <br /><br />Earnings season is going to be a bloodbath - between Dick Bove out there yelling for C to go to 12 and the green shoots brigade pumping up the blue chips, the consensus numbers just do not tally up with the aggregate demand picture. Another salvo of disappointing earnings should finally sink the USS Second Derivative.<br /><br />I also don't see commodities tugging on the equities market... the China story is compelling (and to my chagrin, I was about 2 months too early on that mini-bubble) but ultimately the pain is unlikely to be transferred - most of the equity money is/are a far shot from being Macro (Wo)men.Corneliushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05396035519145306065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18235103671557556342009-06-22T20:06:33.248+01:002009-06-22T20:06:33.248+01:00I agree Macro Man that Turner climbs out on limbs ...I agree Macro Man that Turner climbs out on limbs and is at the extreme most of the time. Not that all this has any direct impact on the capital markets yet. <br /><br />So take a look at this:<br />http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=46112<br /><br />So the Washington is officially deployed and it doesn't take much to figure where it might be headed. But Turner did get all the strike group info correct, someone probably told him something. <br /><br />When Tom Clancy wrote the Hunt for Red October, the detailed info on the inside of the U.S. nuclear sub was so accurate that Clancy had to have had a mole tell him about it. Turner's extreme posturing could be like a magnet and someone wants to be another Deep Throat. <br /><br />I thought, given the diverse subjects you have commented upon in the past, you might find it interesting. Certainly did't want to appear I was giving publicity to Turner. Really like you blog.Boat52https://www.blogger.com/profile/10586353183464883494noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59117019294976366272009-06-22T18:34:38.591+01:002009-06-22T18:34:38.591+01:00Indeed, though not before she extracted her pound(...Indeed, though not before she extracted her pound(s) of flesh on Friday, taking me out of a futures short.....but yes, it's all looking quite ugly all of a sudden.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43996614174716725672009-06-22T18:14:12.401+01:002009-06-22T18:14:12.401+01:00And so it begins!... How nice and pleasing to the ...And so it begins!... How nice and pleasing to the eye to see Ms. Market behavingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79199439571040317182009-06-22T17:11:32.359+01:002009-06-22T17:11:32.359+01:00Copper get down you dirty, dirty girl. Wow, month ...Copper get down you dirty, dirty girl. Wow, month end is looking better and better after having bought some puts a little too early.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-208114941858978632009-06-22T17:06:13.184+01:002009-06-22T17:06:13.184+01:00Anon, I seem to recall that last July saw the firs...Anon, I seem to recall that last July saw the first real hint that Fannie and Freddie were going bust, and there was also a delicious little bounty to be made in Turkey as well. That some might assume there can be no catalyst makes one more likely to emerge, if anything. <br /><br />Henry, toshin are Japanese investment trusts, typically investing in foreign markets (which therefore imply a sale of yen.)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38775069179713997322009-06-22T16:41:48.236+01:002009-06-22T16:41:48.236+01:00"My style is very much one of scaling in, and..."My style is very much one of scaling in, and adding as the initial trades go onside"<br /><br />I agree with that. I don't hold too many "full" positions, but I already have a lot of small ones. :)<br /><br />"Gittens out in the Sydney Herald saying rate cuts probably more likely than market anticipates"<br /><br />I hope so. I have a decent position there in short term interest rates, and can't understand why the market is pricing in rate HIKES.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56345602251534703242009-06-22T15:32:27.102+01:002009-06-22T15:32:27.102+01:00rbc fx has a note out saying they expect jpy cross...rbc fx has a note out saying they expect jpy crosses to remain well supported due to record $10 billion in toshin launches,<br />I am bit of an amateur in the fx world, and not as familiar with the various flows, what is toshin?<br /><br />Gittens out in the Sydney Herald saying rate cuts probably more likely than market anticipates. Is he of the vaunted Journo Mafia?Henry F.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39117084880429707452009-06-22T15:30:36.761+01:002009-06-22T15:30:36.761+01:00MM--don't be stupid--its june there will be no...MM--don't be stupid--its june there will be no catlysts in the summer--go to the beach and or do your knee rehab---only possible catlyst are bolts from the blue which by there defination are unpredictable so forget part 2 and focus on puting your ideas to work for sept-nov of 2009Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48359371996161702952009-06-22T15:15:29.803+01:002009-06-22T15:15:29.803+01:00Reg Stock / Bonds
I do not see the problem in a st...Reg Stock / Bonds<br />I do not see the problem in a stock/bond dichotomy. More QE might help the bonds as much as the stock market.<br />I see it more in FOREX. But if Japan and China play along they can hold up this game for some time still.<br /><br />Reg Wildcards<br />Who remembers the Russian Crisis in 2008 when suddenly it turned out the Russian foreign debt outstanding was three times the amount that Wall Strteet though it was? Turned out bad for LTCM amnd others.<br /><br />Couldn´t some funny bookkeeping in souvereign debt show up again in Asia or Eastern Europe or Greece or Spain ?Hubertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35585196253997123252009-06-22T15:01:40.148+01:002009-06-22T15:01:40.148+01:00The situation is firmly in the hands of politician...The situation is firmly in the hands of politician operators now, not in market's hand, bond vigilante notwithstanding. (By politician operator, I mean people that are more interested at their power position than at the bottom line,because the bottom line in belongs to other people's money !)<br />Catalysts for a step down are operators that either WANT a step down and/or don't know what they are doing. (for instance the Fed/Treasury letting Lehman go belly up belongs to both categories).<br />Fed and Treasury learned their lesson now, so I doubt they will be the next catalyst. Congress refusal to bail-out states like California could be a trigger, but it is likely they will find an astute guarantee scheme to keep the ball rolling. I also think China is too conservative to rock the boat and has the most ability to hide the junk below the carpet.<br /><br />Despite the false start in Latvia, a crack in the European deficit countries (Pick your choice : Baltics, Ukraine, Greece, Bulgaria,etc...) coupled with election-linked German intransigence still seems the likeliest candidate this summer.<br />Beyond German elections, trade restrictions triggered by too much capacity chasing too little demand is an all-time favourite.<br />Wild card is crazy stuff in Middle east or Korea, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15664983104693516908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86874647060341064902009-06-22T14:44:03.783+01:002009-06-22T14:44:03.783+01:00Anon @ 2.27, yes I am finding more and more intere...Anon @ 2.27, yes I am finding more and more interesting trades, and I am having to restrain myself from piling in too quickly. My style is very much one of scaling in, and adding as the initial trades go onside; I've had a bit of jopy, but not enough to merit really piling in at this juncture.<br /><br />Liquid Man, yes, I think it's fair to say that higher bond yields, rather than lower equity prices, are now public enemy #1 in terms of engineering a recovery...so 'twill be interesting to see how the Fed plays this.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3388451172417726122009-06-22T14:33:31.569+01:002009-06-22T14:33:31.569+01:00I think the Fed will back off QE or at least sprea...I think the Fed will back off QE or at least spread the remaining 150 billion in committed purchases out another 6 months... b/c they can't allow yields to stay above 4% for too long (look at refi eligibility charts and it will blow your mind away). <br />I have followed the liquidity picture closely and it has simply seeped into commodities, foreign currencies, and helped support equities at the expense of inflation expectations. The economy can't recover quickly with yields above 4% or oil at 70 bucks so the Fed must let the markets take some pain now to allow yields to decline.Kevin Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03799209699161609412noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53576386928887619052009-06-22T14:27:02.334+01:002009-06-22T14:27:02.334+01:00"if so, what will be the catalyst?"
A w..."if so, what will be the catalyst?"<br /><br />A week ago, I would have said "Latvia," but it looks like they found some more good money to throw after the bad.<br /><br />"For it's important to keep plenty of powder dry until one's preferred theme is in play."<br /><br />I am getting my poweder plenty wet already here. :) Several of the commodities have declined quite a bit already, German bond yields are heading lower, and stocks (I hope) will follow soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73498747995053725122009-06-22T14:08:38.559+01:002009-06-22T14:08:38.559+01:00Haha, "I only told you to blow the bloody doo...Haha, "I only told you to blow the bloody doors off"! Classic.<br />Choice of quote implying the whole caboodle could go up in smoke?<br />Andy Xie seems to think so, maybe a bit more med term tho:<br />http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-06-09/110180019.html<br />Ta, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10586509595299281092009-06-22T13:42:10.746+01:002009-06-22T13:42:10.746+01:00Given that donut's track record (the "Ame...Given that donut's track record (the "Amero", the stress tests), |I think it's more likely that the US has deployed a battle group near Fiji than North Korea....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45443089217375375352009-06-22T13:38:33.005+01:002009-06-22T13:38:33.005+01:00Catalyst for next move?
Chess board is set, your ...Catalyst for next move?<br /><br />Chess board is set, your move:<br />http://turnerradionetwork.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=70:us-deploys-battle-group-near-north-korea&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50<br /><br />Turner maybe is not the best source, but if correct.....Boat52https://www.blogger.com/profile/10586353183464883494noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7916093189856057952009-06-22T12:53:05.112+01:002009-06-22T12:53:05.112+01:00sharpend, No, I've never owned a Fezza. AUDNZ...sharpend, No, I've never owned a Fezza. AUDNZD is a trade that promises much but is very frustrating. I have done OK out of it over the years but know a lot of guys with bruised foreheads (received from banging their heads against a table.)<br /><br />Blue, while it is true that expectations tend to lead, it is also the case that they present the occasional 'false dawn', viz. early 2002. I believe we are at a similar juncture.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14592183123755766692009-06-22T12:16:33.167+01:002009-06-22T12:16:33.167+01:00Pardon what may be an obvious comment, but looking...Pardon what may be an obvious comment, but looking at your graph it sure looks like expectations leads headline, which leads current. I'm not clear, though, where the actual data comes from. Would you mind posting the source. <br /><br />Thanks.Russ Abbotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15431389045571531450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51536600969108056902009-06-22T11:58:30.897+01:002009-06-22T11:58:30.897+01:00AUDUSD potential triangle failure approaching; pre...AUDUSD potential triangle failure approaching; pretty anemic price action, looks a good short with defined risk.<br /><br />EDZ9 looks very constructive too, another couple of ticks up and it will be interesting to see if it continues to 99.15-20 or is sold into.<br /> <br />Bunds, T-bonds, maybe trend is changing, last week or two constructive for bond bulls.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36780982234014825212009-06-22T11:11:20.163+01:002009-06-22T11:11:20.163+01:00Macro Man, you should put up the SEAG of copper im...Macro Man, you should put up the SEAG of copper imports into China. Its the biggest short I've seen in a while. <br /><br />Aluminium also doesn't look too hot, inventories building not to mention all the fundamental issues I've outlined<br /><br />http://nemoincognito.blogspot.com/2009/06/going-nowhere-aluminium.html<br /><br />DB etc are super gunned up on this for some reason, would have to assume they just missed the boat and feel embarassed or are trying to get on the other end of the trade.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53281593527884785902009-06-22T11:02:17.593+01:002009-06-22T11:02:17.593+01:00Have you ever owned a Ferrari?
We are all seeing ...Have you ever owned a Ferrari?<br /><br />We are all seeing the same thing.<br /><br />One trade I am eager to own is the audnzd at better levels<br /><br />Short Asian dry shipping looks good.sharpendnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71902610128202803112009-06-22T10:48:27.181+01:002009-06-22T10:48:27.181+01:00EJ, agreed...I have started to layer a few positio...EJ, agreed...I have started to layer a few positions, but holding back until the odds are more firmly in my favour.<br /><br />Anon, yes, I started my career, many moons ago, in options market-making.<br /><br />Nemo, yes, the Oz is all part of the same trade at the moment. If gold holds this trendline break, for example, you'd have to think AUD would get a kicking.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31397552862110598922009-06-22T10:43:51.542+01:002009-06-22T10:43:51.542+01:00Aussie is probably going to test 78 cents again to...Aussie is probably going to test 78 cents again tonight. Held up last week but can't see it holding up for long.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.com