tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3299468310258436048..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Central Bankers and their Big Brass Balls.Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67934322357576258912013-06-10T06:34:53.702+01:002013-06-10T06:34:53.702+01:00It all comes down to central bankers - who's p...It all comes down to central bankers - who's printing and how much?alternative investmenthttp://www.greenworldbvi.com/alternative-investments-optionsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57148441424711066602013-06-07T19:11:57.627+01:002013-06-07T19:11:57.627+01:00Nice graph here of USD v SPX correlation. Last yea...Nice graph here of USD v SPX correlation. Last year when we were in what we then called RORO world, these assets were anti-correlated and USD was only positively correlated with Mr Bond. That was before Abenomics, and Yen Carry, obviously.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/6/7/dollar-vs-stock-correlation-hits-multi-year-extreme.html" rel="nofollow"> Dollar Stock Correlation At Extreme Highs </a><br /><br />With USD and SPX at extremes of correlation, the suggestion here is that this would at least revert to the mean, so we will see decreasing correlations between these two. So perhaps DXY strength will be negative for equities again in the coming months, and correlated with Mr Bond (Dollar Carry resumes). Again, whether this happens will depend on the fate of the current bout of Abenomics.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82504916143165965952013-06-07T17:30:48.050+01:002013-06-07T17:30:48.050+01:00SPX 1650 is the 61.8% retrace of the move from 168...SPX 1650 is the 61.8% retrace of the move from 1687 to 1595. So for those who don't subscribe to the view we are in a 1999-like brand new paradigm, that's where this dead cat bounces to.<br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8752974199006990392013-06-07T16:45:27.492+01:002013-06-07T16:45:27.492+01:00A predictable squeeze yesterday and today. Probabl...A predictable squeeze yesterday and today. Probably didn't matter what the effing number was today. It was just time to sell vol, and that's a powerful force in these markets.<br /><br />Today's trade? It is probably buy US fixed income and sell Euros. Monday we will have all this NFP in the rear view mirror and the US and European economy will still suck giant donkey d*ck.<br /><br />Today is a good day to draw up a load of Fib retracements in your favorite instruments... if the VIX sticks at 15 then we are going to sell this bounce, but if it bleeds down to 12 again, then we are all going to be forced to go on another low volume trip to the stratosphere in our brand new Tesla. Probably depends on whether carry trades can be stabilized or not.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26138466585711346532013-06-07T15:35:32.275+01:002013-06-07T15:35:32.275+01:00c s'
"as in no beta"..dittoc s'<br />"as in no beta"..dittoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51165030585100446042013-06-07T14:50:45.720+01:002013-06-07T14:50:45.720+01:00The surprise was there was no surprise. Very happy...The surprise was there was no surprise. Very happy to have been on the sidelines watching the insanity for most of the last three sessions. In this context, being long fixed income and selected dividends and preferreds counts as "on the sidelines", as in no beta.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52927158371143182652013-06-07T14:46:03.089+01:002013-06-07T14:46:03.089+01:00AudAudintrinsic valuenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22450271008983563792013-06-07T14:44:50.570+01:002013-06-07T14:44:50.570+01:00Suprise as in steady as she goes. the Aid did not ...Suprise as in steady as she goes. the Aid did not like it as muchintrinsic valuenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37176504893628154832013-06-07T14:16:41.048+01:002013-06-07T14:16:41.048+01:00Engineer. Like the film Speed
Actually factoid ...Engineer. Like the film Speed<br /><br />Actually factoid of the day.. the phrase " Going balls out", as in "flat out" is derived from the top speed spinning of the centrifugal governors on old engines...<br /><br />Here endeth the lesson..Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82045830899240649972013-06-07T12:43:08.526+01:002013-06-07T12:43:08.526+01:00Through the graphic, is MM suggesting we should re...Through the graphic, is MM suggesting we should remember "the tragic bit/ There was no way of stopping it (QE)"?<br /><br /><br />The Engineernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32948866647570882762013-06-07T12:38:32.661+01:002013-06-07T12:38:32.661+01:00Oh my. Those worthless June USDJPY puts came out h...Oh my. Those worthless June USDJPY puts came out handy yesterday.<br /><br />Bit of a "50 quid in yesterday night's trousers pockets" feeling there. <br /><br />Detapering Partners LLC did some more boot filling yesterday, hoping the "goldilocks of just the right amount" as TMM puts it will help us sell back to unsuspecting Great Rotationers the fixed income vehicles they sold to us in the past couple of weeks.<br /><br />Now, if +400k comes up, this is probably going to hurt "a bit".<br /><br />DD<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37429330870403358572013-06-07T11:28:33.282+01:002013-06-07T11:28:33.282+01:00As much as I agree tmm I am pondering the possibil...As much as I agree tmm I am pondering the possibility of Japan being a harbinger for US. will have to see secondary reaction first. Many Japanese stocks were crazy over bought ( Mazda,fast retail,) and the 'bull' market in those type of stocks happened so fast. So it doesn't surprise me of a big pull back which I want to keep buying. But if yen can't get above 100 and Nikkei doesnt outperform I think filling ones boots may be a bad idea come October ..for now I'll buy the dip and watch the news. But the real tell will be in the strength of the reactionary move. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20850801901756781372013-06-07T10:04:43.633+01:002013-06-07T10:04:43.633+01:00Well, the Nikkei would have closed much lower toda...Well, the Nikkei would have closed much lower today, had it not been for the surprise announcement during the market, that there will be a press conference at 3pm, to discuss the new investment guidelines of the government pension fund. This caused a 400 point up move.<br /><br />The 3pm announcement was even worse than he third arrow. "The GPIF will increase the allocation to domestic stocks from 11% to 12%". Really ??<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31442231461000773602013-06-07T09:33:22.600+01:002013-06-07T09:33:22.600+01:00I forgot, Shove the Qe market up your ass!I forgot, Shove the Qe market up your ass!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69198847776099508532013-06-07T08:54:31.335+01:002013-06-07T08:54:31.335+01:00Thanks.
It hasn't been hard to find out who a...Thanks.<br /><br />It hasn't been hard to find out who and where the market players are going with this oneamplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53424142378838528092013-06-07T08:39:23.245+01:002013-06-07T08:39:23.245+01:00C Says
It's sad that virtually all scenarios t...C Says<br />It's sad that virtually all scenarios today are explained in terms of what central bankers will do.Apparently good macro analysis now requires us to be Mystic Meg and our chief weapon the crystal monetary policy ball. Free market,you have to be joking. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com