tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3141491464819189573..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: U-G-L-YMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74083620762079932182008-09-18T13:25:00.000+01:002008-09-18T13:25:00.000+01:00Scott, indeed. It took til about noon yesterday b...Scott, indeed. It took til about noon yesterday before the first photoshopped Man U photo with F E D on the front of the shirt made its way around the market.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49376332026337305312008-09-18T00:28:00.000+01:002008-09-18T00:28:00.000+01:00Guess that means there is only 3 days to topple MS...Guess that means there is only 3 days to topple MS and GS, unless Team 1250 can craft another half-baked plan over the weekend, in which case there is only 2 days.<BR/><BR/>MS and WB tie up -- talk about desperation. Can't help but think of WB standing for Warner BrothersUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09184472643186145660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71036137168912400212008-09-17T23:25:00.000+01:002008-09-17T23:25:00.000+01:00Correct me if I'm wrong but the short selling rule...Correct me if I'm wrong but the short selling rules kick in tonight at 12:01am. On a T+3 basis, yes, Monday would be when all deliveries have to be made by ....Ghost Riderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10785600973315481106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50346798699593204712008-09-17T23:23:00.000+01:002008-09-17T23:23:00.000+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ghost Riderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10785600973315481106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26326430387856389592008-09-17T21:25:00.000+01:002008-09-17T21:25:00.000+01:00"Ecb's sudden change of bias would be juicy"Only i..."Ecb's sudden change of bias would be juicy"<BR/><BR/>Only in your wildest dreams mate!mikarskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07451575916097736038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90204644268259370762008-09-17T20:57:00.000+01:002008-09-17T20:57:00.000+01:00Mr. Margin callingMr. Margin callingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26627356922641132642008-09-17T18:32:00.000+01:002008-09-17T18:32:00.000+01:00Equity short worked quite well regardless of Aig b...Equity short worked quite well regardless of Aig bailout. <BR/>But vix @ 35 has always marked time for nice rebounds. Also new Sec "anti-naked selling" rules kick in monday (guess next move will be a fiscal rebate that can be used only to buy financial stocks). That said, with investment banking looking like to disappear in one week time this could prove to be the exception.<BR/><BR/>Anyone looking for a CBs capitulation? Ecb's sudden change of bias would be juicy...<BR/><BR/>sick traderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55746918671329291582008-09-17T18:19:00.000+01:002008-09-17T18:19:00.000+01:00Anonymous of 2:55 PM, and MM himself, a friend was...Anonymous of 2:55 PM, and MM himself, a friend was at a conference this morning, pinged me that the moderator had noted that with AIG sponsoring Man U, and Northern Rock sponsoring Newcastle, we've got the Federal Reserve v the BOE upcoming at ssome point.<BR/><BR/>cheersScott Frewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16643075085246149549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73768115267775024082008-09-17T18:03:00.000+01:002008-09-17T18:03:00.000+01:00They're not careful, a 3m tbills at 0,2%, citi at ...They're not careful, a 3m tbills at 0,2%, citi at 13$, finacial stocks collapsing, GE 5yr cds at 550, isn't enough to be scared?<BR/>on cash market you don't sell..stop!<BR/>about CB, they're taking a HUGE risk, have they done a worst-case scenario analysis or not??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3795582396276358372008-09-17T17:48:00.000+01:002008-09-17T17:48:00.000+01:00Yes Macro, redact the Houseman. I am all anticipat...Yes Macro, redact the Houseman. I am all anticipation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82918035538816401772008-09-17T16:37:00.000+01:002008-09-17T16:37:00.000+01:00MS CDS now much wider than Lehman ever got. Odds ...MS CDS now much wider than Lehman ever got. Odds of a coordinated response have to be rising...Dec LIBOR contracts in free fall....and all they come up with is extending the SLS, extending short selling regulations, and issuing bills to fund the AIG deal.<BR/><BR/>If they ain't careful, Team 1250 will turn into Team 250....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75721766371204038912008-09-17T16:35:00.000+01:002008-09-17T16:35:00.000+01:00Does the AIG liquidation constitute an overhang to...Does the AIG liquidation constitute an overhang to the market or the the presumption of orderly sales temper the magnitude of the sales? Also wonder if the new naked short regs will cause visible impact for HFs. I have been waiting for short regs to come , but that SEC action is the only change I have observed. Congressional leaders are proposing an RTC clone fund for sub prime securities. Haven't yet heard the Team 1250 stance on this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13270102303620601562008-09-17T16:33:00.000+01:002008-09-17T16:33:00.000+01:00MS, GS is the game over?MS, GS is the game over?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37294413268402244372008-09-17T14:55:00.000+01:002008-09-17T14:55:00.000+01:00The best one i read today was that Man-U t shirts ...The best one i read today was that Man-U t shirts will soon read "US Treasury"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55623309843787055972008-09-17T14:40:00.000+01:002008-09-17T14:40:00.000+01:00The HBOS prices were everywhere. Tried to sell so...The HBOS prices were everywhere. Tried to sell some short dated HBOS bonds, the prices ranged between 60-95%. I mean range of prices, not the bid-offer. Happened during HBOS opening. Keep your cash in your pockets and lend overnight. You get decent returns.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87168356347106260622008-09-17T13:53:00.000+01:002008-09-17T13:53:00.000+01:00Anon @ 11.45: Oh yes, it is always on my screen, ...Anon @ 11.45: Oh yes, it is always on my screen, on the recently-renamed "Poetic Justice" BLP monitor.<BR/><BR/>Daniel, it is tempting to rework another Houseman poem, "To a Trader Retiring Young"Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50137471729211488082008-09-17T12:55:00.000+01:002008-09-17T12:55:00.000+01:00AE Housman quote for you:It is no gift I tender, ...AE Housman quote for you:<BR/><BR/>It is no gift I tender,<BR/> A loan is all I can;<BR/>But do not scorn the lender;<BR/> Man gets no more from man.<BR/> <BR/>Oh, mortal man may borrow<BR/> What mortal man can lend;<BR/>And 'twill not end to-morrow,<BR/> Though sure enough 'twill end.<BR/> <BR/>If death and time are stronger,<BR/> A love may yet be strong;<BR/>The world will last for longer,<BR/> But this will last for long.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02901678973251321027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19117400739790637292008-09-17T11:45:00.000+01:002008-09-17T11:45:00.000+01:00Funny you should put up the EDZ8 chart. I actually...Funny you should put up the EDZ8 chart. I actually sold some of those both Monday and Tuesday at 97.400 (about the only thing I have done right the last couple of days). I just didn't have much faith that it could go higher. :)<BR/><BR/>If you want to enjoy some schadenfreude, take a look (on your Bloomberg) at RTSI$ Index GPC (and GIP, too). If you make enough people angry, they will eventually take their ball and go home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13103971048076970272008-09-17T11:00:00.000+01:002008-09-17T11:00:00.000+01:00AIG and HBOS are out of the picture .. what other ...AIG and HBOS are out of the picture .. what other shoes are still out there that prevent us from seeing where the true market bottom lies? .. WM comes to mind, but they have been trading near zero for a while nowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39682561252272180132008-09-17T10:46:00.000+01:002008-09-17T10:46:00.000+01:00Does the €$ fut action constitute a reverse Satan'...Does the €$ fut action constitute a reverse Satan's finger? Am new at this one...<BR/>Heard that the LEH canary wharf lease is insured by... you guessed it AIG! Also PB custys are worried as they've filled up on high fixed income products from AIG. And the best one I was told is that 60% of all CDOs (I would imagine in the non ABS space obv) reference LEH somewhere - more mark downs to come? Certainly a money market fund breaking the buck cos it's got too much LEH CP is worrisome. The Pope is not out of the bear infested woods yet, to mix a few metaphors. Cheers, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88602407283785358932008-09-17T10:36:00.000+01:002008-09-17T10:36:00.000+01:00To give you an idea of how crazy this market is......To give you an idea of how crazy this market is...I bought OTM October put spreads (exp Sep 26) on USZ8 two and a half weeks ago. Last night, with 60% of the time to expiry having passed and the long bond three points higher (with my long strike 4.5 points out of the money), I sold out and recouped half my original cost. That is just crazy.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2107883148329616812008-09-17T10:26:00.000+01:002008-09-17T10:26:00.000+01:00HBOS bailout is only temporarily postponing the in...HBOS bailout is only temporarily postponing the inevitable final leg down in the spu .. i still think it will happen later today .. 1130-1140 is my guess where we could bottom out .. don't forget to short the long bond when that happens .. that thing won't turn around for yearsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28382668497802359472008-09-17T10:07:00.000+01:002008-09-17T10:07:00.000+01:00Hi MM,AIG's rescue seems to be nothing more than a...Hi MM,<BR/><BR/>AIG's rescue seems to be nothing more than an order liquidation of the company and global markets' relief is therefore likely to be temporary. Risk aversion is set to increase again. Time for US 10 years yields to move down towards 3.00% or even lower?<BR/><BR/>AT<BR/><BR/>PS - Sorry for the Hammers losing last match. I hope you give a look at Olimpique Lyionais vs Fiorentina tonight...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32469338245915366232008-09-17T09:21:00.000+01:002008-09-17T09:21:00.000+01:00The fact that Reserve Money a money market fund of...The fact that Reserve Money a money market fund of size is below $1 and redemptions are in line for more than a week has to spell trouble, even if only sentimental.<BR/><BR/>MicksonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com