tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post3075797600708245700..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Equity model updateMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39037769589173048112016-06-02T22:58:58.730+01:002016-06-02T22:58:58.730+01:00Leftback,
Nice going on JPY and you're profit...Leftback, <br />Nice going on JPY and you're profits. As you said it is going from "bottom left to top right", and from what I can see (technically), it has alot more to go.<br />May I ask, What fundamentally could cause this to happen?Skrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36523223528130342592016-06-02T19:31:24.317+01:002016-06-02T19:31:24.317+01:00Bloomberg on wti today
- Analysts, traders bear...Bloomberg on wti today <br /><br />- Analysts, traders bearish on WTI crude futures, wkly Bloomberg survey shows.<br />15 of 30, or 50%, bearish<br />2, or 7%, bullish<br />13 neutralAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15457289391956924282016-06-02T18:20:31.648+01:002016-06-02T18:20:31.648+01:00Why would oil go lower when there is a supply prob...Why would oil go lower when there is a supply problem? Oil is failing to sell off on bad news, and rallying on good. It's going higher, we need 65-75 to get capex back on, and that's barely incentive pricing. <br /><br />Oil has had its bear market and is tight. The bear market low still to come is in baseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17062009044640015792016-06-02T18:08:43.602+01:002016-06-02T18:08:43.602+01:00big squeeze in iwm here - putting out a decent sho...big squeeze in iwm here - putting out a decent short at 116 here....buying some tom calls as stopAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90447886282817695902016-06-02T18:01:10.728+01:002016-06-02T18:01:10.728+01:00EURJPY heading lower...EM FX same thing generally....EURJPY heading lower...EM FX same thing generally. Oil positioning looks stretched as well with net longs up big in the past few months, so I can envision an LB move, though frankly I am not really interested in playing the range here. <br /><br />I'll be watching HY to see if its just HF equity monkeys sector rotating or real moves. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50556251098992928852016-06-02T17:44:40.873+01:002016-06-02T17:44:40.873+01:00mm,
regarding the model's liquidity inputs, h...mm,<br /><br />regarding the model's liquidity inputs, have you made use of/found any value in the new-fangled stuff like w-x shadow rates and divisia m4? rate's-of-change there seem to be trending non-zero which is more than you can say for the fed's balance sheet!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57043779624508599792016-06-02T15:48:19.414+01:002016-06-02T15:48:19.414+01:00http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-investme...http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook-june-2016-2016-6Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32241096801234711582016-06-02T15:19:46.500+01:002016-06-02T15:19:46.500+01:00OPEC decides to do d*ck. There's a surprise. N...OPEC decides to do d*ck. There's a surprise. Now watch as leveraged oil longs eventually decide to take their ball and go home. $WTI is headed lower from here, with the XLE and the CAD going along for the ride. Spoos will find it difficult to withstand both a firmer dollar (and yen) along with lower oil.<br /><br />Our long JPY punt made money, we took profits on that today. We added to our UUP positions this morning.<br /><br />Expectations for tomorrow's NFP number, and by extension for Dame Janet showing her beak and claws next week in her speech in Philadelphia, have sunk considerably in the last few days, but we suspect that the report will be on trend at around 200k, especially when the Verizon strikers are taken into account, and that it is unlikely to stay the Fed's hand. We are on course for a hike, probably in July, which doesn't mean to say that June will be uneventful. Mr Market is counting on getting the usual blow job next Monday, so he might throw a tantrum.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7544940753329825462016-06-02T12:32:45.735+01:002016-06-02T12:32:45.735+01:00@MM - "It's not at the point where it ...@MM - "It's not at the point where it recommends exodus from longs,"<br /><br />Thanks for the model update - does this model exit length when forecasted returns are below zero, or is there some other criteria that also includes risk?washedupnoreply@blogger.com