tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2958213242842508811..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Abort, Retry, Fail?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger83125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45031799823644614652016-02-11T12:29:47.810+00:002016-02-11T12:29:47.810+00:00VAT is already 25% in Sweden. Don't see any po...VAT is already 25% in Sweden. Don't see any possibility of raising it any higher and staying in power.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61116779338340885042016-02-11T11:02:00.047+00:002016-02-11T11:02:00.047+00:00brasil61 -> there is imo only one clearly worka...brasil61 -> there is imo only one clearly workable solution to present economic issues - a clearing .. if CB's were smart/corrupt theyd try this approach - let every marginable non economic braindead entity fail ..sell of the parts ..let the bondholders eat the losses .. would kill EU dream, the Euro, socialism, ect ect <br /><br />that would destroy to many "friends of govt" ..i know not realistic Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10677737483563108844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20591620072500652472016-02-11T07:04:18.109+00:002016-02-11T07:04:18.109+00:00RE Nico above "Leverage". Should be fram...RE Nico above "Leverage". Should be framed on every traders wall. Boats t6hat all float on the way up etc etc on the way down. Next margin charts will show we are now embarked on the long leg of deleveraging after some 7 years of going up. Every pause or BTD thought you might have should be viewed within that context regarding what you doing. Timeframe and tactics should have changed to reflect by now and if they havn't you are overthinking it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47859958858939634312016-02-11T03:12:55.909+00:002016-02-11T03:12:55.909+00:00Yes, clearly over an 18 month horizon it's bee...Yes, clearly over an 18 month horizon it's been a/the major driver, but IMHO has taken a back seat to monetary policy perversion and massive asset allocation shifts over the past 2 months or so.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54895921583112778582016-02-11T02:56:41.519+00:002016-02-11T02:56:41.519+00:00MM you don't think the USD strength over the p...MM you don't think the USD strength over the past 18 months has anything to do with what is going on today ? IMO it's the main driver. <br /><br />This latest yen move I agree with you more. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11940156233080831452016-02-11T00:46:01.609+00:002016-02-11T00:46:01.609+00:00Abee, I've mentioned this before, but I think ...Abee, I've mentioned this before, but I think you have the causality totally backwards. FX is a largely a derivative market at the moment, trading off of the signals elsewhere. USD/JPY is an exception, which is why I think it's laughable that the Fed gives a hoot about where it is at the moment.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66439964930953667762016-02-10T23:32:46.167+00:002016-02-10T23:32:46.167+00:00Love it Nico! I never really paid too much attent...Love it Nico! I never really paid too much attention to the long term trends in FX but now I see it as THE driver of Risk in asset markets, though sometimes with a nice lag. And boy when they start moving, they just f-ing blast off. what a market to swing trade. <br /><br /><br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30028001407299666532016-02-10T22:57:03.539+00:002016-02-10T22:57:03.539+00:00Interesting to see this though:
https://www.frbat...Interesting to see this though:<br /><br />https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=3<br /><br />It does not exactly signal an economy that is melting down and I always felt that this indicator worked pretty well in the past.<br /><br />The tough spot here is where Dr. Aghi is sitting. EUR Trade Weighted is up roughly 6% from the beginning of December. This is a lot for a basket of CCYs and represent quite a substantial tightening. Add to this a collapsing banking sector and some tension coming back in peripheral spreads in Eurozone and you really have to wonder what the ECB needs to deliver in order to restore some kind of order. A marginal increase in the monthly Public Sector Purchase Programme might not be sufficient, let alone a further cut to the depo rate that, I fear, could generate unintended consequences.<br /><br />I start to think that corporate bonds are on the agenda: pretty difficult to implement, but it could certainly be quite powerful.ALnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84170230881822765072016-02-10T22:51:09.005+00:002016-02-10T22:51:09.005+00:00lets keep it simple!!! USD just went too rich vs....lets keep it simple!!! USD just went too rich vs. pretty much every other country on the planet<br /><br />FX trading is the most leveraged game on the planet - remember when EURUSD touched 1.4 and Draghi got angry. He just gave 'the signal' for it to go lower. Well he did nothing. But momentum sent it the other way to 1.03 without any change at all in world financials<br /><br />6 years ago it went to 1.60 when people got scared. Those are just crowded traded with ominous liquidation (cf. SNB 2015)<br /><br />now the USDJPY<br /><br />USDJPY was just the most crowded long on FX planet last year, and quite easy to identify - it was a darling gimmick for the Abe cult. You heard it, Abenomics is just a cult. The correlation you see with world equities and oil-equities blablah was only begotten by massive liquidation, worldwide<br /><br />like we keep on saying at radio Nico your only enemy today is financial LEVERAGE. Until they regulate that, plenty of boom and bust plenty of volatility plenty of money to make<br /><br />before taking day trading as sole job for the family in 1998 i assessed the risks. The main risk is the death of volatility. After 2009 i was wary that they would regulate markets and leverage SO much, that volatility would disappear. It certainly did on Spoos for a long while but again, with so much margin play shit was meant to hit the afterburner jet<br /><br />Move along and do not worry too much, the world economy didn't stop, only too many gamblers are looking for the exit on so many assets you are welcome back to big super acrobatics jet 'correlation one'.<br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89862041640517207182016-02-10T22:33:36.465+00:002016-02-10T22:33:36.465+00:00But we had the rebound this morning in Europe. Tha...But we had the rebound this morning in Europe. That was it. Spoos needs to test 1800 Bullard low and put up or shut up. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73046246875503842802016-02-10T22:09:28.466+00:002016-02-10T22:09:28.466+00:00I am not so sure that a collapse is immninent.
Ba...I am not so sure that a collapse is immninent.<br /><br />Based on the after market price actions of AMZN, TSLA, CSCO, and even TWTR, prices are clearly on the rising and it is quite possible that we have a large rebound tomorrow. <br /><br />I know this equity signal is contradicting what bond and FX are telling us. But if JPY could not break down tonight, then shorty of SPOOs should be careful about tomorrow. Just my 2 cents<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7868227046839261532016-02-10T22:00:09.512+00:002016-02-10T22:00:09.512+00:00Apparently UST traders the only people that see wh...Apparently UST traders the only people that see where USDJPY is ..... 30yr screaming and now 2.49% ... 2-10yr curve now +98bpsthegreymannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59348850194340232322016-02-10T21:56:57.003+00:002016-02-10T21:56:57.003+00:00DownWithTheBeanCounters
Chart view:
Monthly: htt...DownWithTheBeanCounters<br /><br />Chart view:<br /><br />Monthly: http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/chartbook/439491921<br /><br />Weekly: http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/chartbook/444281700<br />thegreymannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44488599108602463592016-02-10T21:42:31.456+00:002016-02-10T21:42:31.456+00:00betting on lower equities and lower interest rates...betting on lower equities and lower interest rates...<br /><br />BinTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74211803909856664282016-02-10T21:39:14.423+00:002016-02-10T21:39:14.423+00:00$133+ $TLT in AH ....... i think Nikkei gets rock...$133+ $TLT in AH ....... i think Nikkei gets rocked tonight on yen rally /2-10yr UST curve now +99bps <br /><br />$BA apparently firing managers & executives today...more good jobs gone thegreymannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27270024987799676052016-02-10T21:35:33.000+00:002016-02-10T21:35:33.000+00:00Historically it's positively correlated with s...Historically it's positively correlated with stocks, and erm....that's it.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21369598857398494952016-02-10T21:32:54.134+00:002016-02-10T21:32:54.134+00:00If someone has a moment would you please summarize...If someone has a moment would you please summarize why JPY|USD strength is an augur of doom? Much obliged.DownWithTheBeanCountersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50608690656186968952016-02-10T21:29:58.024+00:002016-02-10T21:29:58.024+00:00BinT u back in ur shorts? I know ud pulled the plu...BinT u back in ur shorts? I know ud pulled the plug a couple weeks ago looking for a better entry (or something like that!)washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32963145667685770132016-02-10T21:23:57.101+00:002016-02-10T21:23:57.101+00:0010 year about to be in the 1.6's!! To me, this...10 year about to be in the 1.6's!! To me, this is the most surprising thing about the 2016 market...and to me it looks like the NIRP-lite the Japanese instituted was the straw that broke the camel's trend line...yet Yellen says she plans to stay the course. I am not sure there is enough popcorn....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84229594875790909362016-02-10T21:07:21.414+00:002016-02-10T21:07:21.414+00:00usdjpy is a tough one - its definitely risk off on...usdjpy is a tough one - its definitely risk off on a day to day market basis, so I would guess if it gets to 109-110 we will be saying hello to 1750-70 in spoos - however, it relieves pressure on China tremendously without really hurting Japan, in that its exporters have largely immunized themselves from currency appreciation in the last two decades for obvious reasons.<br />Either way there is zero chance yellen would explicitly take this into consideration - I think they are, however attuned to the losses in consumer and business confidence if spoos keep slitting their wrists for the next few weeks.<br />Ugly reversal in spoos today - doesn't bode well at all. <br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1098806071625407042016-02-10T21:02:49.999+00:002016-02-10T21:02:49.999+00:00Lefty,
This last hour is the boys have all seen h...Lefty,<br /><br />This last hour is the boys have all seen her talk, got together, and said,"Damn. She's not gonna cave.".....<br /><br />...Don't out-cogitate the cogitators...Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10043630855111401442016-02-10T21:01:59.548+00:002016-02-10T21:01:59.548+00:00Interesting discussion re: Usdjpy. I disagree with...Interesting discussion re: Usdjpy. I disagree with MM here but actually hope he is correct for a number of reasons.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46483648499932327992016-02-10T20:59:02.031+00:002016-02-10T20:59:02.031+00:00The technical picture in Usdjpy is looking a littl...The technical picture in Usdjpy is looking a little ominous.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15203087968163956452016-02-10T20:49:16.438+00:002016-02-10T20:49:16.438+00:00I'm not trying to guess how the fed see it rig...I'm not trying to guess how the fed see it right now, I probably agree with you they think its possibly stimulative for usdjpy to be doing this, my contention is that usdjpy lower is a harbinger of tighter financial conditions, not looser ones, regardless of what the fed think right now. 2008 being the prime example, usdjpy gapping lower from a first order perspective may have been seen as stimulative to the US by the fed, but it told a whole different story of what was going on behind the scenes... I think usdjpy tells us the same thing again... Dissolution of faith in central banks is going to cause tighter finanacial conditions and USDJPY is the ultimate barometer of that loss of faithAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17341957135605611072016-02-10T20:10:41.521+00:002016-02-10T20:10:41.521+00:00For those Zolan Pozsar fans.
https://doc.researc...For those Zolan Pozsar fans. <br /><br />https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&document_id=806977650&source_id=em&serialid=49zz%2b7Ifwr5OosPcuVWVgNMzbl1%2bNRROw0oXkEE4ZME%3d<br /><br />The $100 billion in non-operating deposits that have flown out of banks since<br />the December rate hike are big enough to force some big banks to rebalance<br />between Level 2 and Level 1 assets in their HQLA portfolio in order to remain<br />compliant with the letter and spirit of the liquidity coverage ratio. The maximum<br />some banks can lose is $30 billion before their Level 2 limits are breached –<br />and $100 billion in outflows since December mean that this scenario is now live.<br /><br />It is one thing if these rebalancing flows are driven by the gradual outflow of<br />non-operating deposits – the resulting trades may occur gradually, over time.<br />But it’s a completely different matter if they are forced by the Fed on compliance<br />grounds and at banks where deposit outflows have not triggered them yet.<br /><br />Since the December rate hike large U.S. banks have sold $10 billion in agency<br />MBS and bought $13 billion in Treasuries. Whether these rebalancing flows<br />have been triggered by the outflow on non-operating deposits or regulatory<br />push to make U.S. G-SIBs comply with global HQLA portfolio composition<br />benchmarks we do not know. But if it is the latter, flows out of MBS and into<br />Treasuries could be substantial: $100 billion at best and $175 billion at worse<br />with obvious implications for the mortgage basis, bank NIMs and mortgage<br />REITs.abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com