tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2798013585317561386..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Consensus against MLKMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42098218774339347502011-01-10T21:00:29.578+00:002011-01-10T21:00:29.578+00:00a long dated aud/usd basis trade may interest you ...a long dated aud/usd basis trade may interest you too given the amount of issuance by aussie banks in usd ... probably a good long time hold given carry profile i would guess.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55494292172424504492011-01-10T19:11:37.205+00:002011-01-10T19:11:37.205+00:00My prediction for the next two years is an Aussie ...My prediction for the next two years is an Aussie banking and/or currency crisis precipitated by the twin threat of China tightening and an Aussie housing crash. This might lead to another Asian Contagion.<br /><br />No easy bailout available, and AUD is a freely traded currency, so it will be able to employ the Icelandic or Argentinian solution, restructure/default and devalue. The cricket team is already showing the way by capitulating...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72151096051796437212011-01-10T17:58:59.088+00:002011-01-10T17:58:59.088+00:00Meanwhile (whilst they mix and match any and all a...Meanwhile (whilst they mix and match any and all arguments made since 2007 in order to appear to be generating news)... a mere 8% of Spain's third largest bank taken up by foreigners in two deals since November.<br /><br />The failure to fail of a couple of auctions combined with a (likely) unexpected bit of economic growth and a (already taking place) bump in the rate of inflation will one day make them all go away.<br /><br />Pick your spots.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55520978275267351642011-01-10T16:07:00.756+00:002011-01-10T16:07:00.756+00:00It is hard to see any move down in US equities gai...It is hard to see any move down in US equities gaining momentum while the energy and commodity sector is still strong. The cold weather in US and Europe will be bullish for crude for the time being, and a move down to the 50 dma would be bought aggressively (which might then drive the move you propose). So I am just sitting in my divvys and not shorting, but have no index longs. If we don't dip, I think SPY will drift sideways. Earnings are usually strong to begin with, then not so good at the end.<br /><br />Instead I am watching yields, agree with TMM's prediction of a range-bound long bond between 3 and 4% on the 10y, am currently short the long bond into this week's auctions. A sniff of a move into a new band between 3.75-3.95% TNX will shift bond market sentiment towards Treasuries. This week's PPI and the next one might well mark Peak Flation for Q1, expect a hot number to bring out more Death of Treasuries chatter " thees ees a sooeeecidell infestment".<br /><br />No-one expects much positive action here in emerging markets and DGDF, so maybe we might see one more lurch downwards for DXY on piss weak housing data, complete with more comments to the effect that "Ze dollahr vill bekumm VURTHLEZZ..", before the inevitable USD and Treasury rally resumes in March, crude falls on warmer weather and China slowdown, and time is finally called on the Gold Rush?<br /><br />FX trade of the first half of the year is probably CADAUD.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88703633709872655342011-01-10T15:00:54.200+00:002011-01-10T15:00:54.200+00:00Your double bluff comment is very interesting and ...Your double bluff comment is very interesting and I am starting to lean towards that as well.<br /><br />Yet, I am net short the SPY at the moment, but with a very tight leash. I will cover the minute we reach new highs (i.e. 1276-77). <br /><br />Really, for this "correction" trade to really gain any form of traction we would need to see the SPY move below the 50 day mov av which has hitherto been the watershed. At the moment, that is waaay below at 1220ish, so the bulls still have the upper hand in my opinion (which is why I still see my short as contrarian ;), but your point makes a lot of sense). <br /><br />Question: doesn't spec positioning show neutral on the SPY (i.e. up from a slight short bias at near end?)<br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com