tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2754915342748292569..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: So much for the holding patternMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22328608478404974022016-09-28T03:20:42.892+01:002016-09-28T03:20:42.892+01:00CoCo buyers just turn up the volume and close your...CoCo buyers just turn up the volume and close your eyes:<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vYnas6q3SgAWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11235462747125721792016-09-28T00:59:33.364+01:002016-09-28T00:59:33.364+01:00Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan today rul...Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan today ruled out the need for a capital increase, saying Germany's biggest bank had "fewer risks in the book than before" and was "comfortably equipped with free liquidity."<br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/deutsche-bank-mortgages-idUSL8N1C35WBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90819878726897516422016-09-27T22:16:19.890+01:002016-09-27T22:16:19.890+01:00They had to stop the free fall so they started yap...They had to stop the free fall so they started yapping:<br /><br />Deutsche shares stop plunging in US as DOJ official was interpreted as mild positive for DB’s RMBS settlement talks. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85449450282156697742016-09-27T21:42:33.206+01:002016-09-27T21:42:33.206+01:00@unknown how would you explain the fact that AA no...@unknown how would you explain the fact that AA non financial vs financial CP is at its wides as well? I am willing to believe whatever funding issues out are small and perhaps relegated to a small subset of financials, but I am skeptical that the oft cited regulation narrative fully explains the move.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35302815385360704872016-09-27T20:53:16.156+01:002016-09-27T20:53:16.156+01:00Ted spreads are irrelevant bc one leg is no longer...Ted spreads are irrelevant bc one leg is no longer market indicative...use fra-ois insteadC+https://www.blogger.com/profile/04382044931327398835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60100758492654473352016-09-27T19:16:32.977+01:002016-09-27T19:16:32.977+01:00DB or not, ted spreads are at post-gfc highs. (we...DB or not, ted spreads are at post-gfc highs. (well they were yesterday at least)Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42316391527177282392016-09-27T18:58:42.999+01:002016-09-27T18:58:42.999+01:00@checkmate. A guess. It goes too far. Ends with a ...@checkmate. A guess. It goes too far. Ends with a deeply discounted capital raising and maybe even expensive preferred stock. That allows them to kick the can down the road....but doesn't resolve their issues. Always, too little too late, multiple times. Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13297008420398583502016-09-27T18:45:14.175+01:002016-09-27T18:45:14.175+01:00Anybody seen Nico?!Anybody seen Nico?!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61156318587131726172016-09-27T18:21:33.570+01:002016-09-27T18:21:33.570+01:00European Bull,
In the first instance let us dismis...European Bull,<br />In the first instance let us dismiss the VW commentary. It isn't relevant. It's position within the system is never going to be as damaging as a major bank. Regarding DB I think you are right. Option A you wipe out equity holders and fudge around bond holders to whatever degree necessary then it should work IF we think we really understand the real exent of it's book. I do not know the latter ,but it would be helpful if anyone could shed some light on it. Until the latter is clear how do we make any meaningful statement about counterparty risk? Except with hindsight did anyone here understand the position of Lehman or Bear S ? Unfortunately, I think it's really been the case with a lot of banks that their position is intentionally opaque. If everything you really needed to known could actually be known then arguably we wouldn't travel so far into these moments of crisis to begin with. One would hope that the risk door would have slammed shut long before we reached crisis point. For me I think the balance of probability leans your way ,but the jury is still how on how this all gets resolved.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69322047023779338572016-09-27T17:57:30.136+01:002016-09-27T17:57:30.136+01:00@EuropeanBull
I knew little on DB and EU banks a...@EuropeanBull <br /><br />I knew little on DB and EU banks as the whole, do you expect Germany gov or ECB step in soon to bail out DB?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11221974871044012422016-09-27T17:39:30.578+01:002016-09-27T17:39:30.578+01:00Dow up nearly 1% since my BTFD comment, above. $S...Dow up nearly 1% since my BTFD comment, above. $STUDY (lol)12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6217851032661634682016-09-27T17:13:20.437+01:002016-09-27T17:13:20.437+01:00The market can go down for various reasons but I f...The market can go down for various reasons but I find it hard to construct a chain of events that is triggered by DB. <br /><br />Together with Volkswagen DB is the worst run listed company in germany and has been as a fundraiser party for generations of MDs!<br /><br />However, it is not systemic! Can its equity be diluted to the moon? Sure. <br />Will it default on its counterparty obligations and take everyone else down with them? No!<br />Will it slowly bleed out? Probably!EuropeanBullnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48532399622332294292016-09-27T16:43:52.964+01:002016-09-27T16:43:52.964+01:00@checkmate, We are not 100% long. We have gearing ...@checkmate, We are not 100% long. We have gearing and are long twice that #FTW obvs ;)<br />Peace out.<br /><br /><br />12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29260164406783935612016-09-27T16:07:53.376+01:002016-09-27T16:07:53.376+01:00"If Europe collapses in a DB-driven banking c..."If Europe collapses in a DB-driven banking crisis, everyone will run to US equities in a flight-for-safety."<br />Really? Your faith is touching. So, let's see what really happens to investor behaviour. In 2011 Europe went through a moment of crisis. At that juncture the Dax probably the most resilient of European bourses dropped 33% over a few summer/Autumnal weeks. The SP500 dropped 18/19% and the Nas dropped 15%. They all recovered of course because at that time the central banks still had plenty of room to manover and Europe was still in bailing out. None of the latter facors exist so clearly anymore. Cyprus set down precedents for how TBTF banks should be handled and that's now an issue that haunts both Merkel and Renzi. I'm sure Renzi would love to bail out ,but Merkel has spit on that. By way of reciprocation how can Merkel adopt any other stance ,but hands off to DB without appearing totally amoral on policy and crushing any semblance of an even playing field across European bank regulation? Merkel and Renzi are at an impasse.<br />Has for the old the world will always need A,B,C I can tell you from experience when your P&L has passed 20 and the % just keeps endlessly rolling and you are having multiple trips to the toilet about the last thing you will have on your mind is how wonderfully 'moated' your position is. Double all of that if you really are 100% long BTFD. You'll be leaving in the back of an ambulance with an oxygen mask. :)checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72953251768458896042016-09-27T15:17:38.666+01:002016-09-27T15:17:38.666+01:00Fam, JBTDBD (Just Buy The DB Dip).
If Europe coll...Fam, JBTDBD (Just Buy The DB Dip).<br /><br />If Europe collapses in a DB-driven banking crisis, everyone will run to US equities in a flight-for-safety. If Germany nationalizes DB, everyone will buy all equities in a frenzied mania, reminiscent of the tulip-bubble. Thus we remain long US indexes, esp Nasdaq. Even if Armageddon comes, the world will always need iPhones. Peace.12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39284104348045055952016-09-27T15:07:44.088+01:002016-09-27T15:07:44.088+01:00Checkmate, I left a thank you in yesterday's c...Checkmate, I left a thank you in yesterday's comments section.<br /><br />Trump supporters (of which I am sort of one): all is not quite lost after that excruciating "debate." I recently learned that next week about fifty million <br />Americans will be notified that their medical insurance rates will increase by 30 to 60 percent in 2017.<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74464133131143295542016-09-27T14:44:01.904+01:002016-09-27T14:44:01.904+01:00Let's not forget that DB is the German governm...Let's not forget that DB is the German government just like BP is the British government. The relationships are seamless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22321928080446907112016-09-27T13:05:01.308+01:002016-09-27T13:05:01.308+01:00I readily admit I hate risk on at this time of the...I readily admit I hate risk on at this time of the year. September and October as months go have delivered 3 of the worst risk off market slides in modern market history. Talking of course about '87; '01 and '08. '87 I was hardly involved. In '01 I was briefly in a hole so deep I didn't think I would ever see daylight again and holding out to get out even was probably the single worst market experience of my life. '08 I was virtually all in gilts and feeling really smug at being able to swap ot into high yield bonds. Nonetheless as hard as i try these two months always get me feeling 'gunshy'. Knowing it is really all in the mind actually doesn't help to change that mindset so physician heal thyself is dead in the water as the way to go.<br />So, as Clint Eastwood is reputed to have said "do you fell lucky punk?" ...er no not really.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79761781769195049402016-09-27T12:34:33.679+01:002016-09-27T12:34:33.679+01:00The DOJ settlement is just one more layer of troub...The DOJ settlement is just one more layer of trouble - while I bet the stock would rally on a <=3b settlement the real underlying problems remain - serious headwinds to the traditional business, too much leverage and a culture that extracts its cost in legal fees. Given that they have had YEARS to deleverage and now instead they seem pretty quick to look to states to back them up it feels awfully like grabbing a hostage.<br /><br />Rather than wait for "not dealing with DB" rumors/news, I believe (for people with access to the data) that locate utilization rates will be an early tell.<br /><br />And oh god that debate was just hard to watch. I work with some dudes who communicate like Trump. Policy issues aside, his interpersonal behavior is inappropriate.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13156440021067990352016-09-27T10:58:38.925+01:002016-09-27T10:58:38.925+01:00Db seems to be in a vortex of its own. Im watching...Db seems to be in a vortex of its own. Im watching to seee if cs follows, which is rhen more of a systemic problem. So far cs is holding ok. Yes db is screwed and yes financials will selll off, but not sure you throw the baby out on this one. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2114988717074992812016-09-27T09:53:23.426+01:002016-09-27T09:53:23.426+01:00Markets are back to summer liquidity. Dire.Markets are back to summer liquidity. Dire.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10331918773874283392016-09-27T09:30:10.097+01:002016-09-27T09:30:10.097+01:00Who cares about the wannabe investors. Let them go...Who cares about the wannabe investors. Let them go back to subprime real estate. There is a bigger issue of concern here dear Macro Man. Its called modern portfolio theory! You actually pay off a student loan to know this. It's the net present value of safety in 30 years from now our tesla driveless highways. You have got to be kidding. Sorry, Macro Man...the sharpe ratio's on the premier league book need updating. amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31294385109482249192016-09-27T08:21:12.948+01:002016-09-27T08:21:12.948+01:00While the US debate appears to have been taken as ...While the US debate appears to have been taken as a positive personally I think that's a bit less of an issue to DB and associated blowback in the financials. Certainly when it comes to the UK you can't get positive risk Ftse IF you are not also positive regarding either one of two sectors , banks or mining/oil (comms). For upside you really need one of this lot to be bid. Banks speak for themselves right now because until DB get's resolution it's tarred by association. Comms will correlated to the way you think the US$ will go and between European banks and UK Article 50 uncertainty I'm not tempted to see the US$ weakening. A good set of NFP and away we might go. In fact at the moment re $/Oil I'm eyeballing US$/Can$ which unless it breaks down quickly might well be on the verge of a breakout north of 1.32 which for me is legit basing breakout until proven otherwise. If valid the chart gives you tempting upside targets with good R/R. Hat tip to LB for putting that on radar awhile ago.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.com