tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2589037059718628452..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Going bananasMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65800076011500336772007-04-25T12:43:00.000+01:002007-04-25T12:43:00.000+01:00Well, if Voldemort and his buddies keep bidding up...Well, if Voldemort and his buddies keep bidding up the euro, it will keep going higher. If/when 1.37 breaks, 1.40 is pretty much the next obvious target on the radar. I sort of hope 1.3985 trades...at that rate, EUR/USD will be the same level as USD/DEM!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33262119577808562562007-04-25T10:52:00.000+01:002007-04-25T10:52:00.000+01:00MM,I am getting very nervous. It increasingly appe...MM,<BR/><BR/>I am getting very nervous. It increasingly appears like ur EUR = 1.4X USD is gonna be true.<BR/><BR/>What is ur prognosis ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88000657745388959792007-04-24T19:18:00.000+01:002007-04-24T19:18:00.000+01:00I'm not sure that Britons are that much different,...I'm not sure that Britons are that much different, to be honest (though the grey economy is probably smaller here than in Spain.)<BR/><BR/>There are at least half-a-dozen TV shows dedicated to property and/or refurbishment and almost as many dedicated to antiques (or, as Mrs. Macro would put it, tat.)<BR/><BR/>For better or for worse, there's no equivalent of Jim Cramer or Mad Money in Old Blighty...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36615614078171264472007-04-24T17:15:00.000+01:002007-04-24T17:15:00.000+01:00Very cute, that about Fisher...Whether there's a h...Very cute, that about Fisher...<BR/><BR/>Whether there's a housing bubble (with its connotations of imminent ruin) here, or not, is more than debatable - excluding the Mediterranean, that is, where construction is definitely on the wane.<BR/><BR/>The Spanish have a very distinct relationship to property/money to that of Anglo-saxons. They consider the former far more desirable to own than the latter and, once savings reach a certain point, something tends to be bought. Couple this with truly immense amounts of hoarded, undeclared cash whose lack of laundering gets passed on to the seller who, in turn...<BR/><BR/>Just goes 'round and 'round.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, first-time buyers with little or no help from their families are now stretching their mortgages out to forty years, variable rate, in the larger cities.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33446822954929202582007-04-24T13:22:00.000+01:002007-04-24T13:22:00.000+01:00Interesting, thanks Charles. Given that there are...Interesting, thanks Charles. Given that there are multiple television shows in the UK which appear to focus on Spanish property, it's not hard to think that the market there has become bubblicious.<BR/><BR/>Speaking of which, there is an absolutely classic headline in today's London Evening Standard:<BR/><BR/>LONDON'S PROPERTY BOOMTOWN<BR/><BR/>Number of £2 million homes in London hits all time high, and still no sign of a crash.<BR/><BR/>Paging Dr. Fisher, paging Dr. Irving Fisher...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26692207541037417772007-04-24T12:56:00.000+01:002007-04-24T12:56:00.000+01:00A bit odd all this. The presumed reason is spillov...A bit odd all this. The presumed reason is spillover from some recently revealed maneuverings to shore up the balance sheet at a 'smaller', non-index, builder named Astroc Mediterraneo. But that stock was off 50% from February before this all came out.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, the sacking coincided exactly with CNMV president, Manuel Conthe's, appearance before congress to explain exactly why he was quitting his post - over government interference in his job during the aborted E-On takeover of Endesa. Scheduled up after him is the president of the Banco de España to opine about the inaccessibility of housing prices, which can result in anything what with municipal elections next month.<BR/><BR/>My guess from the cheap seats is that it's a combination of things in an overvalued market that's been hyper-nervous and looking for a reason to sell since the beginning of the month.<BR/><BR/>On the practical front, aside from anything to do with construction, all the banks got lambasted - even the recently outperforming purely national types. More or less saved have been energy and communications. <BR/><BR/>No banks, no construction, no Ibex.<BR/><BR/>When the Eurostoxx reached minus 40 with nary a reaction from the S&P, we shifted the emphasis in the spread to long Europe for the day on the assumption that it's got lots of cushion in the event New York follows suit. So far, so good. The move has recouped 60% of the earlier losses. But the whole thing, although marginally profitable in general, has to be rethought.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the compliment. We're flattered.<BR/><BR/>CBCharles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.com