tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2552636464787368707..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Moral PetardsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34661419253322677182021-09-04T02:39:04.664+01:002021-09-04T02:39:04.664+01:00ดูซีรี่ย์ฝรั่ง netflix
รีวิวซีรีย์ใหม่<a href="http://dooseries2u.com/" rel="nofollow">ดูซีรี่ย์ฝรั่ง netflix</a><br /><a href="http://seriesfin.com/" rel="nofollow">รีวิวซีรีย์ใหม่</a><br />Hedwighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07315574339997072070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59656720014122573812012-11-13T12:42:40.105+00:002012-11-13T12:42:40.105+00:00ok LB I see your points. To me 50bps in the long e...ok LB I see your points. To me 50bps in the long end isnt a drastic fundamental change, more positioning.A move up to 3.4% would seem like the target. 30yr yield daily Chart kinda looks like the Yen at the beginning of this year <br /><br />I also wonder if the Bund and Schatz will start to sell off as well. The fear trade is in those markets more, IMHOabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40219571577302498222012-11-13T07:31:47.341+00:002012-11-13T07:31:47.341+00:00C Says'
You want some safe haven.Perhaps it...C Says'<br />You want some safe haven.Perhaps it's now japanese equity because the action there is so iffy I'd have to money on them to be actively supporting it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90605306126072079032012-11-13T06:47:16.455+00:002012-11-13T06:47:16.455+00:00C Says'
I'm not as bearish on govt debt as...C Says'<br />I'm not as bearish on govt debt as LB probably because I am also not as bullish on equity either.2013 for me is going to be a tough margin year for equity in general.If that is even remotely the case then there is not going to be a sizeable trigger out of govt debt.I also do not believe we can adequately quantify/forecast this data in any case so the room for error is likely to hurtful for either camp.<br />Oh I expect FC resolution will get a kneejerk covering rally with a corresponding effect in govt debt.Through that though I suspect to see a reluctance for portfolios to reallocate towards risk in any meaningful way.<br />2013 the year of slog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78896707831206299742012-11-13T04:29:22.576+00:002012-11-13T04:29:22.576+00:00I'm with you LB.
Once twist has untwisted we ...I'm with you LB.<br /><br />Once twist has untwisted we should see some steepening at the back end. Certainly worth a punt even if only to catch the odd 50-100 bp move, take profit and short again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39818407359586563242012-11-12T23:16:20.048+00:002012-11-12T23:16:20.048+00:00Hmmm...be a bit generalist. Would clobber efficien...Hmmm...be a bit generalist. Would clobber efficient low margin high volume bizz at expense of high margin low volume. A bugger for petrol stations a boom for lawyers.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23585841793628217842012-11-12T23:03:04.623+00:002012-11-12T23:03:04.623+00:00The corporation tax issue is very easy to resolve....The corporation tax issue is very easy to resolve. Get rid of it. Doesn't work today. Directors have to ensure they pay as little as possible but then come up against invective from the court of public opinion. <br /><br />Replace it with a tax on sales revenues in the country of purchase. If profits are about 10% of revenues and corp. tax 10% of profits, I make that about taxing 1% of gross revenues. <br /><br />I should really be running the country.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10586785278923975922012-11-12T20:41:45.655+00:002012-11-12T20:41:45.655+00:00Great long term chart here. Long bond popping out ...Great long term chart here. Long bond popping out of its long-term trading channel. It's a whole new paradigm, bond prices have reached a permanently high plateau. Trees growing to the sky. <br /><br /><a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/index.html?guest/2012/Dominic-Cimino-121112.png" rel="nofollow"> Long Bond Long-Term Chart </a><br /><br />LB really loves long-term charts, so useful. Now, we're not going crazy, we are just talking about a bit of a reversion, say, back to the bottom of the upward trading channel over the next, say, 3-6 months. Somewhere in there, a few fixed income noobs will find out, yes, you can lose money in bond funds.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79463705005012874602012-11-12T20:23:39.952+00:002012-11-12T20:23:39.952+00:00LB is laughing. Why so? Well, b/c in April 2010, h...LB is laughing. Why so? Well, b/c in April 2010, he was the sole voice here suggesting that a 3.9% 10y might be a rather tasty buy. At the time, everyone and their uncle in the Real Money and punting community thought we were out of our very small mind..... it fell to 2.50% from there.<br /><br />So, with that in mind, let's examine the present situation....<br /><br />"but I just dont see who all these sellers will be to push yields really high"<br /><br />First, we want to stress that we are NOT one of those bond market collapse loonies. Yields aren't going REALLY high, like a 4% 10y. Nope. Just talking about unwinding of some of the fear trades. Now, at these low levels, even +50 bps counts as a spike in yields. From here, this would be a very good thing.<br /><br />Second, if we do see a +50-100 bp spike, you will really start to see sellers, believe me, and once the ball starts rolling, it might not stop for a while. This is in the nature of all crowded trades/mini-bubbles. A (+100 to 200 bps) steepener would be good, it would promote risk taking and economic activity. The Fed would keep the housing market stable by pinning the mortgage rate to the 30y Treasury.<br /><br />Third, "given who is on the other side", remember that the Fed will stop buying the long bond in January, in order to buy MBS, and that takes a big customer away.<br /><br />Fourth, as with QE1 and QE2, the Bernank DOES NOT WANT LONG END YIELDS DOWN HERE, what he wants is the short end pinned and the yield curve to steepen, in order that punters will pursue risk, and banks can once again make easy money.<br /><br />Look, Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO explained the above quite elegantly in the weeks following the QE2 announcement while markets dithered, and of course eventually yields backed up by +100 bps. Economics is not physics, but liquidity pumped in has to go somewhere and some of it usually ends up going into the right places.<br /><br />To put it another way, WHAT ON EARTH IS THERE LEFT to drive long end yields lower? Markets are currently assuming that US, Europe, China and Japanese economies are all going to be a stinking pile by the middle of 2013. There isn't a whole lot more out there to slow down, is there?<br /><br />A steepener is just what we need. The more, the better, within bounds. The economy isn't credit-constrained any more, nobody is bothered by rates being a bit higher, except for homebuyers. It's not credit that's the problem, the economy is paralyzed by demand constraints and tax rate uncertainty.<br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56920805023881418872012-11-12T19:57:28.807+00:002012-11-12T19:57:28.807+00:00higgs bosoM.. nice.
LB i see your point why TSY ...higgs bosoM.. nice. <br /><br />LB i see your point why TSY is not JGB but I just dont see who all these sellers will be to push yields really high. Sure 50bps or even 150, but I dont see yields spiking anytime.. alas even a 50bps move at these low rates is still a good % return. <br /><br />Also I'm not sure so there is much spec money in 30years. <br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45863735173238339922012-11-12T19:49:21.677+00:002012-11-12T19:49:21.677+00:00Cute acronym.
Don't get me wrong, long Treas...Cute acronym. <br /><br />Don't get me wrong, long Treasury is a terrible investment (although not all risk premia are for naught) but short 20+ years of duration is a sick trade, especially given who is on the other side. Just sayin'.Secret..Saucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05838897632037831911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82586689237545945452012-11-12T19:20:11.152+00:002012-11-12T19:20:11.152+00:00Secret Sauce 606, I would propose a different shor...Secret Sauce 606, I would propose a different short version of BOLIVIAN.<br /><br />Herds inexplicably grab garbage securities: balls out short on margin.<br /><br />Yes, indeed ... HIGGS BOSOM (it is a slow day is my only excuse)<br /><br />DDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57452321405512448292012-11-12T18:31:01.557+00:002012-11-12T18:31:01.557+00:00MM readers are all too familiar with that ultimate...MM readers are all too familiar with that ultimate Wyddowmakker, shorting JGBs, it has rarely led to a Happy Ending. Will JGBs blow up now, and be replaced by USTs, or are the dynamics of these two markets actually not strictly homologous?<br /><br />From LB's perspective there are just so many extra Risk Premia currently factored into USTs (Grexit, Spanic/Spank Failure, Fiscal Cliff, Lakshman Achuthan's Invisible Recession, US corps Margin Squeeze, Chinese Hard Landing) and each of these has lowered yields at the long end by a significant amount, say between 20-50 bps for each at the long end. The same is true for gilts and bunds.<br /><br />Add in another 20 bps for Santa Claus taking the wrong turn from the North Pole and we might yet see a low of 2,50% on the long bond. Yet the fact remains is that each and everyone of these premia may prove to have been unwarranted, especially in a world where TMM's Non-Predictions hold sway.<br /><br />Even the unwind of one or two of these 20-50 bps is going to cause a little gastrointestinal disturbance among the most recent longs and if several of the Non-Events were to Unoccur within a limited time frame, along with the end of Operation Twist at the end of the year, then we might see a very very sharp yield spike indeed. I reckon there could be as much as 200 bps of Risk Premia in the long bond. The Fed will be happy to sell Ts and buy MBS, just to keep the spread as tight as possible.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53112289829348512302012-11-12T18:28:16.554+00:002012-11-12T18:28:16.554+00:00re the right honorable Petreus: modern america is...re the right honorable Petreus: modern america is no better than the loonies under the fast bastard tudor burning all the papists at the stake. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-511278575461508092012-11-12T18:06:47.709+00:002012-11-12T18:06:47.709+00:00Bosivian JGB has led to many a fine ending. No dou...Bosivian JGB has led to many a fine ending. No doubt Treasury trysts will end as well. Secret..Saucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05838897632037831911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6991849017422469172012-11-12T17:49:50.171+00:002012-11-12T17:49:50.171+00:00Asian bond investors are starting to see US as the...Asian bond investors are starting to see US as the new Japan, apparently this is becoming consensus:<br /><br /><a href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/11/12/u-s-yields-undergoing-japanization-nomura/" rel="nofollow"> USTs the new JGBs? </a><br /><br />It's all very sound and ever so reasonable, this argument, which makes LB go.... hmmmm...... the parallels are really not that perfect. After all, Japan never came out and did unlimited QE without end, did they?<br /><br />Bernanke's thesis all along has been based on two basic tenets: 1) that BoJ simply did not ever do enough QE and always wimped out at the faintest whiff of inflation or yen weakness, and 2) in the infamous helicopter speech, what BB was actually implying is that to finally escape the liquidity trap, a central banker must be prepared to appear verging on lunacy in order to persuade people that the money in their pockets will indeed be worth less tomorrow. Hence we end up with unlimited QE until the US actually reaches escape velocity.<br /><br />There is a great book to be written on this issue alone. Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38472996083769871572012-11-12T17:38:10.754+00:002012-11-12T17:38:10.754+00:00re: Armstrong. There was some chemist on TV saying...re: Armstrong. There was some chemist on TV saying he went back and tested some old olympic results (94 possibly) with new testing technologies. He didnt want to publish reports because the results were just too big. <br /><br />Athletes use dope, banksters are greedy, women love men in power, and most hedgies aint worth the 2/20 afterall. Rinse and repeat <br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3696531959853134912012-11-12T16:58:53.839+00:002012-11-12T16:58:53.839+00:00The General broke the most important rule of all. ...The General broke the most important rule of all. Don't nail a nutter. He's lucky she didn't go Glenn Close on him, he could have lost his Privates.Saul Bolloxnoreply@blogger.com