tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2507238148449180914..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: FireworksMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72442043312179207722009-07-03T07:21:29.597+01:002009-07-03T07:21:29.597+01:00MM,
Appropo of nothing in general, I'm enviou...MM,<br /><br />Appropo of nothing in general, I'm envious that you're off to Goodwood..a pity about the driving day.<br /><br />Secondly, nice to see your stuff on SA on a semi-regular basis, although I suspect 90+% of your stuff is over their heads...(mine, too).<br /><br />"Old Trader"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16579877231285106862009-07-03T02:04:15.142+01:002009-07-03T02:04:15.142+01:00"does anyone think the S&P will make a ne..."does anyone think the S&P will make a new low (break 666)?"<br /><br />I do, but probably not this year. It will take a confluence of negative events combined with a reversal of the slowdown of the rate of economic contraction.<br /><br />"The problem with shorting the [HSI], of course, is that can be a bit more costly to do in terms of bid/ask, volatility, etc"<br /><br />The futures trade over 50,000 contracts a day. There is certainly a lot of volatility, but I think that makes it easier to put positions on, unless you want to do a huge number at one time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40557606883436426192009-07-02T22:00:32.805+01:002009-07-02T22:00:32.805+01:00ITS A BULL MARKET!!!!!!!!! Get your cowboy hats on...ITS A BULL MARKET!!!!!!!!! Get your cowboy hats on. <br /><br />Alls I know is if this market breaks that neckline there will be alot of ashamed analysts and forcasters out there. <br /><br />We can only hope....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80561099992423045942009-07-02T19:19:07.735+01:002009-07-02T19:19:07.735+01:009.5% unemployment 125% mortgages when i was young ...9.5% unemployment 125% mortgages when i was young you went to the US to earn real money and escape the socialists sad state of affairsmaple leafnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60272080450657249992009-07-02T17:58:01.200+01:002009-07-02T17:58:01.200+01:00So word is a certain bank paid 7% for overnight mo...So word is a certain bank paid 7% for overnight money last night. <br /><br />Any clues?Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15046114535612826512009-07-02T17:32:02.627+01:002009-07-02T17:32:02.627+01:00re GS sales guy
he is ex-EM sales, so always bulli...re GS sales guy<br />he is ex-EM sales, so always bullish. thats what i figured. but maybe GS is indeed busily propping up the mkt ?<br />i never believed these consp. theories.. but there was so much suspicious price action the last 1-2 months, that im beginning to wonder..spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12448431807515127572009-07-02T16:23:47.444+01:002009-07-02T16:23:47.444+01:00Yiminy, what an unpretty set of numbers with claim...Yiminy, what an unpretty set of numbers with claims and NFP. My current favorite <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_compare.pdf" rel="nofollow">green-shoots second-derivative indicator</a> (PDF) just went flat on them.<br /><br />I'm still roughly zero effective beta, probably -0.1 in dollar terms, but thinking of broad-market short-dated puts.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62841318549478246092009-07-02T16:22:38.110+01:002009-07-02T16:22:38.110+01:00Hmmmm....spagetti, I'm told that GS has been t...Hmmmm....spagetti, I'm told that GS has been the 898 bid in the minis all day. Perhaps your sales guy knew somnthing????Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24256900789960077912009-07-02T15:58:34.039+01:002009-07-02T15:58:34.039+01:00Perhaps a few ticks but both WTI and Brent trade i...Perhaps a few ticks but both WTI and Brent trade in total well over 1 billion barrels each day in futures so that rogue broker did not exactly put the market on fire.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23021862436827549792009-07-02T15:41:12.740+01:002009-07-02T15:41:12.740+01:00http://www.cnbc.com/id/31705591
So this is why cru...http://www.cnbc.com/id/31705591<br />So this is why crude rallied the other day, a rogue broker?!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6079486547482004392009-07-02T15:22:51.844+01:002009-07-02T15:22:51.844+01:00Drew's a technician, and an Elliotician at tha...Drew's a technician, and an Elliotician at that, so his stuff can be a bit of a slog at times for non-believers. <br /><br />I certainly don't think consensus is looking for a new low in the major indices, let alone in the IBOV, HSI, etc. The problem with shorting the latter, of course, is that can be a bit more costly to do in terms of bid/ask, volatility, etc.<br /><br />No real view on the loonie, though there was a lot of kerfuffle about buying it on the crosses yesterday against stuff that looks even worse- eg the antipodeans. I think everyone who trades FX has a few bete noir currencies...for me, the CAD is there along with the ZAR...so be warned that I'm not the best one to listen to on CAD.<br /><br />Spagetti...why isn't that a surprise?<br /><br />PG, I suspect Mrs. Watanabe (or, more accurately, her husband) might be about to get kicked in the nuts as yen crosses cascade lower....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44229798519565743822009-07-02T15:21:06.789+01:002009-07-02T15:21:06.789+01:00So we broke 900 but we still have a mexican stando...So we broke 900 but we still have a mexican standoff around 898. Somehow I think we're all getting a little to excited about this.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67152020867948243452009-07-02T15:06:31.974+01:002009-07-02T15:06:31.974+01:00We need something, anything, to repeatedly kick th...We need something, anything, to repeatedly kick the FX in the nuts. <br /><br />And I have a new term for this market "death yodeling." But I'll bet you that all hell will break loose in the next 3-4 weeks.<br /><br />In the meantime I've put a fan and a bottle of tequila at the desk. Here in California you can only use your Arnie dollars at the Mexican restaurants as they haven't figured it out yet. Bless them.Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75697703621949226792009-07-02T15:04:43.675+01:002009-07-02T15:04:43.675+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13269349968606427872009-07-02T15:04:32.424+01:002009-07-02T15:04:32.424+01:00yes MM
from GS..
and indeed it didnt break 900 fo...yes MM<br />from GS.. <br />and indeed it didnt break 900 for a whole 30 minutes after he sent it outspagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58379030792522606412009-07-02T14:58:53.798+01:002009-07-02T14:58:53.798+01:00the loonie is getting humped because while everyon...the loonie is getting humped because while everyone goes on about it being a commodiity powerhouse, the population is in hock to their eyeballs and still spending like no tomorrow. i think it is a great short vs the USD. it also has an even more inefficient government than the US...people over there think it is a great catch to get a govt job...usual reasons...nice pay, nice hours and fat pension... <br /><br />nice reversal in Fedex today, well at the moment before it gets ramped 3 bucks into the close.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21031747379234994292009-07-02T14:58:52.125+01:002009-07-02T14:58:52.125+01:00Any piece by Drew Baptiste that we can read? I al...Any piece by Drew Baptiste that we can read? I also believe that it is time for bear to come out but not sure where the bottom is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90400255883510209992009-07-02T14:55:21.091+01:002009-07-02T14:55:21.091+01:00AUD has more "China" leverage than CAD, ...AUD has more "China" leverage than CAD, iron ore is the key commodity - - that's the perception...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11089954829667418322009-07-02T14:46:46.634+01:002009-07-02T14:46:46.634+01:00Consensus is probably not thinking about a new low...Consensus is probably not thinking about a new low, right? Emerging market equities are probably a better sell if risk appetite does lurch lower again. Valuations are elevated and prices overbought...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68148494880490596242009-07-02T14:43:31.812+01:002009-07-02T14:43:31.812+01:00cad getting slammed again, equity/ commodity pull ...cad getting slammed again, equity/ commodity pull bk certainly a factor(also for aud, nzd) BUT cad's been getting slammed across all currencies recently, what gives?<br /><br />Carney talked off QE last time, and didn't speak of intervention too forcefully, <br /><br />is it jus that cad is tied way more than other commo block with the Us recovery.<br /><br /><br />Also, there is some expectation of chinese oil firms making a go into some of the canadian independents, that could be a factor eventuallytomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34450594894471084432009-07-02T14:35:53.355+01:002009-07-02T14:35:53.355+01:00Drew Baptiste at Morgan Stanley does. I'm no...Drew Baptiste at Morgan Stanley does. I'm not sure if I believe him, though if the last year has taught us anything it's that stuff can go a lot further than you dreamed of.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55638465908730191512009-07-02T14:30:50.090+01:002009-07-02T14:30:50.090+01:00Big picture... does anyone think the S&P will ...Big picture... does anyone think the S&P will make a new low (break 666)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55635118327955749722009-07-02T14:22:40.885+01:002009-07-02T14:22:40.885+01:00obviobviNemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28395669561823572392009-07-02T14:21:01.483+01:002009-07-02T14:21:01.483+01:00Was he from GS, perchance?Was he from GS, perchance?Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28449388222957081922009-07-02T14:09:55.315+01:002009-07-02T14:09:55.315+01:00just got an uber-confident bloomie msg from a sale...just got an uber-confident bloomie msg from a salesguy; no reason for the S&P to break 900. why would anyoe make a statement like that, when its less than 1% away.spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.com