tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2379118441274649625..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: A Partial Apology to MerveMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36904980290792490352011-11-11T08:33:50.339+00:002011-11-11T08:33:50.339+00:00Could be risky ....................ah ha ha ha ha ...Could be risky ....................ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4571674309121842452011-11-10T09:38:15.376+00:002011-11-10T09:38:15.376+00:00C says'
In reply to "kinell" which ...C says'<br /><br />In reply to "kinell" which I'm not sure exactly what that means I didn't post yesterday to beat my own drum.In any case I need no reminder how quickly this market can turn around on newsflow.I posted just to make the point that there are really very few macro signposts pointing UP and there any many increasingly pointing down and the latter seem to be based upon where are we and where will be IF current policy maintains its' current heading.No more than that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26971953661423395132011-11-10T06:42:07.333+00:002011-11-10T06:42:07.333+00:00hello inflation just sucks,it was like a domino,co...hello inflation just sucks,it was like a domino,connecting with each other.<br /><br />--<a href="http://makatiofficespace.com/for-rent" rel="nofollow">makati commercial rent</a>Tinknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17296873831441439622011-11-09T23:31:50.453+00:002011-11-09T23:31:50.453+00:00Well I fancy the multipack flavour exchange on the...Well I fancy the multipack flavour exchange on the net idea, pretty sure TMM can allegorise this purrfectly.<br /><br />Oh and my cat would better make a hat.ntwscnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55729258994532110812011-11-09T23:07:24.449+00:002011-11-09T23:07:24.449+00:00If you put 44 catfood servings not 48 in a box, do...If you put 44 catfood servings not 48 in a box, does that defy inflation expectations of the buyer? If we shop more often rather than more expensively, is the human mind that stupid? Can we cope with being poorer and poorer until we suddenly realise we buy catfood daily for 50 quid, and the wife spends a grand in Waitrose? Do we then eat the cat?<br /><br />Top bungabunga-free post, top trade. Not sure on the timing, but you have to be in it to win it & downside looks limited. <br /><br />Short cats as a hedge.mephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16252414675288201195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25472171093502025692011-11-09T22:40:42.809+00:002011-11-09T22:40:42.809+00:00sorry for the mass of comments today, but any thou...sorry for the mass of comments today, but any thoughts on the Itilian repo markets. Some interesting stuff here, regarding the amount of repo fails. I am not sure how this all figures in, as its not my area. Any insight TMM<br /><br />http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/09/739051/why-italy-is-oh-so-special/abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79797424096647501752011-11-09T22:32:07.830+00:002011-11-09T22:32:07.830+00:00I like the kevlar glove at when DVY gets to 200day...I like the kevlar glove at when DVY gets to 200day, maybe tomorrow<br /><br />buy the dips and sell the rips in this range bound market until mid decemberabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16643533473314386212011-11-09T21:54:56.601+00:002011-11-09T21:54:56.601+00:00kinnellkinnellPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68426029760042094592011-11-09T21:31:45.510+00:002011-11-09T21:31:45.510+00:00C says'
I told you I'd be waiting above ;)...C says'<br />I told you I'd be waiting above ;)<br />and were I you thinking of falling knives I'd step aside. The sentiment and vix have birth more than adjusted for the summer extremes of bearish sentiment and frankly the degree of 'comfort' being displayed within the macro context is to me nothing less than foolish...we have people trying to squeeze what amounts to small upside rewards against a context that appears to offer far more downside risk.And it appears mainly that they do so because they think either BB ,or the Eurocrats will magically find a solution to macro problems.All i can say is they have more confidence in that than I do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75102939222138498932011-11-09T20:59:34.185+00:002011-11-09T20:59:34.185+00:00Definitely not a Kevlar Gloves™ day over here. Glo...Definitely not a Kevlar Gloves™ day over here. Gloves staying safely in the glove box.<br /><br />EURUSD has room to roam to the downside now that Newtonian forces have re-established themselves on the currency pair. With no immediate sign of a US QE3 on the horizon and the prospect of a deep EZ recession OR massive ECB bond buying, you'd have to fancy 1.30 for EURUSD eventually, if not a fair bit lower.<br /><br />A few rumbles over here about whether a few other smaller shops might have MF-type issues.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32151223499423092632011-11-09T18:28:31.589+00:002011-11-09T18:28:31.589+00:00Keep your eye on trade credit insurance - it is go...Keep your eye on trade credit insurance - it is going to gum up inter European trade. Being refused all over the place. Expect more pmi's like the German ones. <br /><br />One of my big bugbears is that the ONS/BoE fail to fully measure the broader money supply. I would include credit derivatives (improved) but also trade credit terms (payment weeks etc.) and insurance (completely absent). It was a lack of credit terms that was a big part of the last financial crisis and statistically, it went almost entirely unrecorded. <br /><br />Oh - love the blog by the way.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58977474812371197082011-11-09T17:51:11.930+00:002011-11-09T17:51:11.930+00:00"And while it is certainly painful for us all..."And while it is certainly painful for us all, rebalancing should be welcomed as setting the pace for sustainable growth in the years to come."<br /><br />well saidwillemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37155569107002774412011-11-09T17:34:05.596+00:002011-11-09T17:34:05.596+00:00LB, I'm familiar with the Japanese widowmaker....LB, I'm familiar with the Japanese widowmaker. One day that scythe will cut the other way. <br /><br />But the thing about Japan (so far) is that it's had domestic buyers of the debt. The U.K. runs a capital account surplus. Once those crazy foreigners who are happy to take a two percentage point real loss on their capital realize they're being slaughtered by sterling as well, they may desist.<br /><br />The thing about these extremes is when they snap back there's huge amounts of carnage. Remember, an unwillingness to accept slightly higher unemployment for a few years led to the Weimar catastrophe, the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis. And the result has always been much higher levels of unemployment.Alen Mattichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17100534971060055482011-11-09T17:31:40.739+00:002011-11-09T17:31:40.739+00:00TMM might be correct on the symptoms, but the caus...TMM might be correct on the symptoms, but the causes of low wage growth in the UK has much more to do with UK opening up borders for the EU ascension countries. Add non-EU immigration and globalisation trends and hey presto , you got some serious pressure on wage growth. Merv the Swerve had little or nothing to do with this, if anything the QE has contributed to GBP weakness and follow through inflation via commodities.<br /><br />However the decline of real incomes has introduced well needed competitiveness into UK economy, which in turn has kept the official unemployment under 10% / 3 mio. Note : UK does still have huge amount of workers on "incapacity benefit" , a rue designed to massage official numbers... but even with odd 500k of unemployed hidden there, you still end up with figures which compare favourably to continental europe (ex-Germany).<br /><br />Oh, kudos about the short sterling trade , I like it and I been short the reds for few months now.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54651894260929054852011-11-09T17:06:11.334+00:002011-11-09T17:06:11.334+00:00Very nice, cpmppi, I can see that is a source that...Very nice, cpmppi, I can see that is a source that TMM has mined repeatedly for inspiration in the past few months. But perhaps you own the company?<br /><br />Alen, the BoE is far from helpless, since the UK have wisely retained the option of allowing the market to Bash Betty instead of submitting to the bond vigilantes. <br /><br />I refer the Honorable Gentleman to the answer I have given previously, in regard to the curious case of the non-collapse of the JGBs, and to the oft-mentioned Widowmaker trade in that context....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41527446624355330262011-11-09T16:28:21.385+00:002011-11-09T16:28:21.385+00:00Your argument's well made, but we're only ...Your argument's well made, but we're only part of the way into the process. I would argue that the BOE is trading future price stability for a little extra growth now. <br /><br />The assumption seems to be that when the time comes, the BOE will be both able to identify when to remove stimulus and be willing to do so. My bet is that it'll be oblivious and reluctant and the U.K. will end up with another flavour of disaster.Alen Mattichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75399172995808275902011-11-09T16:09:18.918+00:002011-11-09T16:09:18.918+00:00LB,
Got just the T-Shirt for you:
http://www.zaz...LB,<br /><br />Got just the T-Shirt for you:<br /><br />http://www.zazzle.com/italy_according_to_posh_italians_tshirt-235789814005317078cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8296501660241080872011-11-09T16:05:29.620+00:002011-11-09T16:05:29.620+00:00Anon @ 3:35,
Here, Here. We're looking at you...Anon @ 3:35,<br /><br />Here, Here. We're looking at you Germany. Hoping to do more on that tomorrow...cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69432771393953716752011-11-09T16:05:14.693+00:002011-11-09T16:05:14.693+00:00Anon @ 3:26,
Expectations are certainly diminishin...Anon @ 3:26,<br />Expectations are certainly diminishing. But things would be somewhat worse had wages risen, offsetting competitiveness gains from the FX devaluation (as used to be the case with such moves). And while it is certainly painful for us all, rebalancing should be welcomed as setting the pace for sustainable growth in the years to come. <br /><br />Looking at the economic situation in places that have not followed this policy path and it certainly makes TMM feel happy to be UK-based.cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23396389483101368422011-11-09T16:05:05.118+00:002011-11-09T16:05:05.118+00:00Willem,
Thanks. Yes, they have certainly been &quo...Willem,<br />Thanks. Yes, they have certainly been "lucky" regarding the structural downward pressure on wages. And yes, we don't really expect wages to take off in this backdrop, but think this particular trade is quite an interesting option on things looking somewhat different.cpmppihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14890582570540203535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1078844070913328342011-11-09T15:35:41.821+00:002011-11-09T15:35:41.821+00:00the UK appears like it will come out of the crisis...the UK appears like it will come out of the crisis wonderfully - monetization + getting the long term fiscal house in order?<br /><br />if only those lessons were seen elsewhereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60138078435728639562011-11-09T15:35:27.214+00:002011-11-09T15:35:27.214+00:00"We truly live in a world of diminishing expe..."We truly live in a world of diminishing expectations."<br /><br />Absolutely, old chap. In fact if you can make 5-10% a year this decade then you are going to be well ahead of the herd, imo. <br /><br />We have been waiting for this dollar rally, sitting patiently for the Euro to rediscover the Law of Gravity. Consequently, we could not be bullish any DGDF/RORO trades until we reach a new equilibrium, wherever that might prove to be. So we won't be going BOLIVIAN for a while.<br /><br />So, will the Greeks reintroduce the drachma? They would be Cretans to stay in the Euro..... <br /><br />[Can't believe nobody has used that one yet.]<br /><br />Italy is really going to be under strain, not just economically but sociopolitically. If you have only been to orderly cities like Milan, you don't really understand Italy. You need to visit Naples, a visually beautiful city on the edge of anarchy and in constant chaos, and see the poverty of Calabria to really grasp what it is you are dealing with.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32172764335247029952011-11-09T15:26:15.413+00:002011-11-09T15:26:15.413+00:00So.. basically inflation is what happens when you ...So.. basically inflation is what happens when you get a raise...and everybody else gets a raise, and the price tags get a raise.<br /><br />In contrast when the prices rise, but you don't get a raise, it's just you becoming poorer.<br /><br />The economy is shit. The spending cuts make things worse. People are grateful just to keep their jobs, feeling too terrified to demand more pay.<br /><br />And we're supposed to be happy about that?<br /><br />We truly live in a world of diminishing expectations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8876640198744141432011-11-09T15:06:09.808+00:002011-11-09T15:06:09.808+00:00Thoughtful post, as always.
But....Perfect storm -...Thoughtful post, as always.<br />But....Perfect storm - Classic liquidity trap, massive output gap (domestic & global), and a surge in supply of global labor force participation/productivity. <br />Personally I wouldn't bet on wages picking up inflation pressures anytime soon.willemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83171768407040673382011-11-09T14:23:44.519+00:002011-11-09T14:23:44.519+00:00regarding BTPs, you would think if markets really ...regarding BTPs, you would think if markets really panic the ECB will step in with a significant purchase.. every other CB is doing it<br /><br />Is this why the markets are still holding up so strong, the Draghi put?abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com