tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2260748363721570627..comments2024-03-29T12:12:06.420+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Turkey - Das Boot. Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53364229039650063882014-01-29T18:00:32.749+00:002014-01-29T18:00:32.749+00:00Tale of two tapes likely today. Two Tiny Tapers ar...Tale of two tapes likely today. Two Tiny Tapers are already priced in, so we'll get that little 5 minute oscillation in rates and spoos where the machines hunt stops, eventually followed by a bit of mean reversion. <br /><br />So we would say, sell US fixed income and go long the spoos, for a trade. 10s retrace to 2.76-2.80% and SPX retrace to 1813 or 1820.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26584614999899731072014-01-29T16:20:58.758+00:002014-01-29T16:20:58.758+00:00Hopefully Turkey will not end up like the Hunt For...Hopefully Turkey will not end up like the Hunt For Red October, TMM, where the Russians end up being destroyed by their own torpedo... this is pretty much how our fixed income hedging has turned out of late.<br /><br />The main thing speculators have to fear would be other (unnamed and not-to-be-named) CBs stepping in to scoop some TRY in a sort of "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours". There was clearly a bit of this going on during the Euro crisis.<br /><br />Mr Market clearly unhappy today, awaiting later hand relief from Dame Janet amid dovish language about "Fed may vary pace of tapering".Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91474074756175361312014-01-29T14:26:50.814+00:002014-01-29T14:26:50.814+00:00A lot of technical damage done to the Spoos. The r...A lot of technical damage done to the Spoos. The rally back to kiss the 55 day, then reversal. Can QEen Yellen and the Beard's last stand save them? <br /><br />How price responded to news in FX clearly very bearish. <br /><br />Great post Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49692668204177174372014-01-29T13:35:31.798+00:002014-01-29T13:35:31.798+00:00That das Boot analogy/clip is fantastic. Well play...That das Boot analogy/clip is fantastic. Well played sir.SouthSeaConoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37155887453901188662014-01-29T12:08:39.997+00:002014-01-29T12:08:39.997+00:00Yep TMM, despite my overall fondness for the long ...Yep TMM, despite my overall fondness for the long US 10y/long EM trade it is beginning to look risky. We are generally holding up alright here with EM, but but ... <br /><br />That was a wild move by Turkey and could create a nasty precedent for "intervention". I mean, if EM have to start implementing 600bp tank shell hikes to stabilise currencies, it is obviously pretty close to the definition of "game over" <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com