tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2137433743833156847..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Bringing a bazooka to a gun fightMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59250348053140882282015-09-20T13:04:17.507+01:002015-09-20T13:04:17.507+01:00Abee: on that you are probably right that people w...Abee: on that you are probably right that people will be more worried between now and the election. But unless it is a hung parliament, I think we could see the yearly low for cad.usd just before the election or in the period between the election result and when the result is known.Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44637733329199090452015-09-20T12:45:52.234+01:002015-09-20T12:45:52.234+01:00Also, as a bonus, on the aud.cad short is the posi...Also, as a bonus, on the aud.cad short is the positive effect of an El-nino weather pattern later in the year if it has a major effect, would tend to depress aud and appreciate cad. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83930149004543221232015-09-20T12:42:15.111+01:002015-09-20T12:42:15.111+01:00booger, I agree with the longer term view AUD has ...booger, I agree with the longer term view AUD has more to fall, hence why I want to short it. Just giving you a heads up about the election, as it is a pretty significant IMO. In auzzie yes they threw out the incumbent but kept the party. In canada we are talking about almost 10 years of a conservative government potentially being defeated by NDP, which is the polar opposite. That is HUGE and I wouldnt want to bet against it. Especially when you think that <br />1) FX Tends to overshoot<br />2) Canada like most countries seems to have these long cycles of yin and yang when it comes to political preferences. Canadian business men know what NDP is, and they will all panic first. <br /><br />Similarly in the US, 8 years of Bush followed by 8 years of Obama, polar opposites. Hence why Trump is so popular now and why his chances are probably better than most (me included) believeabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58968743079007237642015-09-20T06:51:41.585+01:002015-09-20T06:51:41.585+01:00abee regarding aud.cad: yes, I almost forgot that ...abee regarding aud.cad: yes, I almost forgot that pesky election issue. I have to say, I am not that familiar with politics there, but I would tend to think, based on pure guessing that it probably will not have a huge effect unless the result is a hung parliament. Technically, it could send aud.cad to 0.97. I doubt it will get to 1.0 based on just an election. The Australians for instance dumped their incumbent price minister with another fellow this week and it had little effect on aud ! I will stick with the starter position though and wait until after Oct 19 to initiate a full position. <br /><br />I am not sure which will do worse in the long term but I tend to think the trade will move in the next 12 months based on relative monetary policy and Australia lagging Canada in the cycle. It appears to be Canada, Australia then NZ in the com bloc. It might be due to the capex in Australia taking a few years longer to get out of the pipeline. So out of those 3, I think Australia and NZ have further to go. Their currencies are nowhere near GFC lows and cad.usd is beyond GFC lows already. To get to GFC lows, aud.usd would be back to 0.6 and nzd.usd back to 0.5. So aud.cad might be worth a thousand pips once Australia turns towards recession or/and Canada has a quarter or 2 of positive growth. <br /><br />Nzd.aud is another pair I have on my radar. I managed to get a ride from 1.0 earlier this year when it reached multi decade lows, but bailed in the chop around 1.12. I am looking more to play that going down as a bullish ags/bearish metals play when soft commodities start to diverge from hards. <br /><br />Canadian and Aussie banks I don't watch much and I think are harder to short. I have done little research into them. One expects they would have a long way to fall if there is a recession but they seem to be raising capital now so may have enough buffer when the going gets tougher (although I doubt it). The comm bloc countries do seem to have a housing bubble however. I read somewhere that the average house price in Auckland (NZ capital) is 850k NSD which is bit crazy and in Vancouver it is something even higher. I suppose though with the banks it depends on whether China is effective with blocking their porous capital borders and can be more effective in policing capital controls overseas. If they aren't then the perversely the housing markets in the those countries might get even hotter with Chinese slowdown and capital outflow. The banks in those countries could once again dodge a bullet. <br /><br />An interesting and amusing effect it has on central bank governors in those countries is they have to send different messages to different market constituents: to the forex market they are saying, more rates coming, to the housing market they are saying, all good, no we are not going to cut anymore so don't expect lower rates. It has the curious effect of making Poloz (and Wheeler and Stevens) look like morons: one minute they are confident that the mining slowdown is transient, then the next month they appear to be crapping their pants with an about-face interest rate cut. Quite amusing to watch. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21789304644630065292015-09-19T18:58:11.480+01:002015-09-19T18:58:11.480+01:00Washed, that's why i don't agree with what...Washed, that's why i don't agree with what most of marks said. You don't always need to do second level thinking. Especially in macro. What you are gonna always be short bonds in the last 30 years. Or only long stocks in bear markets...dont get me wrong, marks is an amazing investor, I even have some OAK stock, but he is not a macro guy. <br /><br />Either way, shorting stocks is a hard game, it's not mostly macro, it's more micro. If you can get a copy of "the art of short selling"..I found it on torrents. <br /><br />Canadian banks own Canada. Similar to auzzie banks. Good for a trade not something that is gonna go bust. Better to sell fx imo vs the banks, easier, less micro noise, more technical. For housing u can short reits, or mortgage insureres, though they are littered with short carcasses. Though hcg.cn is taking it now. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88388967418733366352015-09-19T16:34:21.354+01:002015-09-19T16:34:21.354+01:00Thanks for the options book recommendations. I go...Thanks for the options book recommendations. I got a copy of Natenberg - seems like a good introductory text. On the last page there's a handy "table of strategies". To use it, the prospective trader to pick "bull" or "bear". I'm not willing to bet on the long term movement of the mean of the SPX - but one thing that seems clear is that volatility has become high recently.<br /><br />CV - my earlier statement about variance being low is true except for days - like yesterday - where there have been wild swings. Looking at the large swings over the past few weeks, one gets the impression that the PDF of the SPX has fat tails.signalmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14146309179642990830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81916442554716296862015-09-19T14:19:28.933+01:002015-09-19T14:19:28.933+01:00abee - all that is just 'first level thinking&...abee - all that is just 'first level thinking' isn't it? the whole point of your recommended article was that their is a major difference between cheap and crowded and valuable and contrarian. <br />In any case appreciate the advice - the last thing I need is to pick a battle with a company that houses itself at the address 'one infinite loop'!<br />I think canadian banks may be a value trap and their housing sector woes haven't really hit full force yet - usually a leading indicator down for the currency - frankly the AUD and CAD are a race to the bottom but for my money I'd say AUD wins eventually just because Canada can borrow some US strength more easily. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38755796872082350212015-09-19T13:56:06.509+01:002015-09-19T13:56:06.509+01:00Canada has an election and left leaning NDP is doi...Canada has an election and left leaning NDP is doing well..it's a big risk for cad. Heads up. I don't think it's priced in. On aud yes I'll wait for 74 too..but not day trading it, more of an insurance em risk trade. I think chances that it goes much higher than 75 by year end is low. <br /><br />Appl short of a lifetime I dunno...it has the best brand loyalty of any product today, it's cheap, and unlike most other device company's they understand how to build for today's users. You short fads or unsustainable trends not great companies...or short crappy companies. Imo tesla better short, or under armour or something like that. But be careful shorting momo in this market. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49578529547590742462015-09-19T13:13:57.716+01:002015-09-19T13:13:57.716+01:00Abee Crombee: on aud.usd I have been watching that...Abee Crombee: on aud.usd I have been watching that too. I think it is too early to short it though. There have been 2 bearish rejection candles the last 2 days on the daily chart: <br />https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3961879/audusd-d1-oanda-division11<br />I think there is a good chance we will bust through the 0.73 level next week. Given that the fed has held, I am waiting for 0.74 before shorting AU next week hopefully. There are no major releases due in terms of Australian data next week. I think also a move to 0.74-0.75 will make the RBA move to an easing bias. <br /><br />Also after catching 2020 short Spoos, I closed yesterday. I am thinking maybe there could be some chop up and grind for a bit now. <br /><br />Short aud.cad though has my eye: <br /><br />https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3961902/audcad-d1-oanda-division11<br /><br />I think Canada cannot get a great deal worse in the next 6 months and will probably improve and Australia has a big fat recession target written on it's back. I think 0.97 is the topside and 0.95 currently is not a bad entry so did that on Friday. <br /><br />Also piquing my interest was the breakdown in natural gas on Friday below 2.63: <br /><br />https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3961906/natgasusd-d1-oanda-division11<br /><br />So I entered a small short there also. Natural gas has been really compressed lately so it is likely to spring one way or the other:<br />https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/3961916/natgasusd-w1-oanda-division11boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14756610001957458042015-09-19T12:13:30.784+01:002015-09-19T12:13:30.784+01:00"In any case I have to say this blog over the..."In any case I have to say this blog over the years has gone from being excellent quality based upon MM being amongst the best of his kind to what we see today which is the usual egoridden pissing contest between people who live to receive kudos.<br />A comment from an increasingly infrequent visitor"<br /><br />I have been following his blog for a decade, and I can assure you that it always had its share of ego ridden pissers - its human nature to think of the past as halcyon, if only the current 'crop' would just conduct themselves the way we used to - just ask any tea party member! You do have a point that other than MM's posts, its recently been light on actual charts and data from contributors and heavier on, well, opinion, but I would like to think its a cyclical (like EM) and not secular (like commodities) shift, largely a function of most of the punters here trying to save money and pay the bills while unemployed.<br /><br />All that said, I will take this blog with all its imperfections any day - I just have to ignore a few occasional nut-cases who engage in childish brawls to walk away with great food for thought from the vast majority of its regular posters? Acceptable trade-off to this frequent visitor. Plus, there is nothing wrong with a little entertainment while you try and divine what the dark passageways in yellen and draghi's brains lead us to next.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37700653150400524602015-09-19T12:07:14.881+01:002015-09-19T12:07:14.881+01:00I believe MM operates a full refund policy here, s...I believe MM operates a full refund policy here, so feel free to apply within ;). It is true that the the tone tends to deteriorate at times, but I put it down to emotion and vested interest in a certain view. Ego is your biggest enemy in this game, and we have a few bigguns at the moment. <br /><br />Meanwhile, I concur with the points about about Yellen and her reluctance to move given inflation expectations. She is really just taken a page out of Draghi's playbook, and it seems that the ECB's discourse is increasingly running the show, even if my base case is that the Fed will, eventually (as in the next six months) move. <br /><br />Meanwhile, the likes of DBK, SAP, and even dare I say VW (etc) could all be winners in Q4 and Q1 I think on the back of a general return of investors into EZ benchmark equity indices. If you're bold you might even have a sniff at Repsol, but the link with Latam here means you need to don the big set of cojones. The signal-to-noise ratio is always low in a pissing contest, and I am a big believer in having a firm view (makes it easier to change your mind if the world doesn't go your way). <br /><br />I think ... <br /><br />- MSCI world will be comfortably higher in six months. EEM too, and Stoxx/FTSE too. If you're in the U.S. forget the index, you need to pick the right ones to perform here now. <br /><br />- I think USTs and Bunds will do rather well in Q4, and that is as far as I want to go here. If CBs are seen as being behind the curve on inflation, the steepener might, (finally) work, but I will leave that call to Gundlach and LB ;). <br /><br />- I think EURUSD is rather boring, and generally don't really look at FX. My base case has always been that we need to see a break-out in US 2-year yields for EURUSD to really run lower. I have been positioned accordingly through short EDZ Dec 16, but I don't need to tell you how THAT is going :). My call on EEM obviously implies some sort of relief for the worst downtrodden EM turds. <br /><br />- I think EUR credit will outperform US, especially HY if you can get hold of something. <br /><br />There you have it ... of course, there is absolutely zero chance that I could be wrong ;). <br /><br /> CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10308937068293638282015-09-19T11:44:46.367+01:002015-09-19T11:44:46.367+01:00Anon10:35
"A comment from an increasingly in...Anon10:35<br /><br />"A comment from an increasingly infrequent visitor".<br /><br />Amen!The Oracle has spoken!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67979093678052346112015-09-19T11:29:12.761+01:002015-09-19T11:29:12.761+01:00abee - my biggest insight after reading the howard...abee - my biggest insight after reading the howard marks article was that AAPL may be the short of a lifetime!<br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19233021568463118532015-09-19T10:35:39.719+01:002015-09-19T10:35:39.719+01:00Blog makes me laugh. Nico couldn't hit a barn ...Blog makes me laugh. Nico couldn't hit a barn door for ages then get's a purple patch and goes from zero to hero. As for insults, his fuse couldn't get shorter so what goes around comes around. You want reason then show reason. Rather biblical really.<br />In any case I have to say this blog over the years has gone from being excellent quality based upon MM being amongst the best of his kind to what we see today which is the usual egoridden pissing contest between people who live to receive kudos.<br />A comment from an increasingly infrequent visitor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44357018351079128252015-09-19T10:27:11.883+01:002015-09-19T10:27:11.883+01:00Signalman, re option trading I recommend Euan Sinc...Signalman, re option trading I recommend Euan Sinclair's (aka Filthy) books. Just sayin...Eddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92141595705681705222015-09-19T03:47:02.139+01:002015-09-19T03:47:02.139+01:00Yellen goes when the market forces her. Which will...Yellen goes when the market forces her. Which will be in the next 6 months barring a bigger drop in the equity markets which pose the biggest reflexive systematic risk here. Though I guess em could still flare up as well, with oil too. But there is always some risk. Sometimes it's easier to see and sometimes it's a bit cloudy. Not taking big risk here. Waiting for more ...don't need to swing at every pitch. <br /><br />Which bring me to Howard marks latest memo. Perhaps this isn't a distressed value investing crowd but I found a lot of his rules that argue against some simple truisms about the market very unhelpful for those more macro oriented. Anyone else have any thoughts. <br /><br />What's up hating in gosht of fm. If you can make money short term trading go for it. Many ways to skin a cat. Just be sure not to cause a flash crash....lol. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75206806852157738192015-09-19T02:47:09.462+01:002015-09-19T02:47:09.462+01:00Would you really expect Dame Janet to hike into th...Would you really expect Dame Janet to hike into this, knowing what we do about her inflation fetish?<br /><br /><a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T5YIFR" rel="nofollow"> 5y5y Forward Inflation Expectation Rate </a>Captain Obviousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58573471400856926912015-09-19T02:43:46.149+01:002015-09-19T02:43:46.149+01:00Hipper, I really think Fed data dependency simply ...Hipper, I really think Fed data dependency simply means this: Dame Janet watching consensus inflation measures such as CPI and the 5y5y breakevens, I don't think it's any more sophisticated than that. Once crude oil prices become clearly firmer, then we may finally get a tiny hike. As long as the main US inflation input remains so weak, Dame Janet isn't going anywhere.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2074759575895005732015-09-19T02:39:08.233+01:002015-09-19T02:39:08.233+01:00LB has quite enjoyed the Summer of FM, Ghost of FM...LB has quite enjoyed the Summer of FM, Ghost of FM etc.. and wishes the banter could continue on a civilized level. So don't go away, just Chill, dudes. I mean, you don't catch LB and CV slagging each other off on the blog when we have a disagreement, do you? Mind you, we rarely do. There was a time in 2010 when MM was away, and Pol and cpmppi were in the house, and LB fancied the Long Bond and 50 different blokes were short bonds and slagged him off every day - then the 30y yield fell 125 bps in 6 months and the Haters faded into thin air .. anyway, play nice, chaps, or MM will have to hire a bouncer.<br /><br />Today was another good Hammock Day. Amazing how many there have been. We're looking for a deep dip from here to get long into. CV and LB likely singing from the same hymn sheet again, so let's see who else joins in and makes the Bottom call here next week. We do like Pol's idea of slow grind up in risk assets and USD/JPY. Vol sellers have had a bad couple of months, but they do win most of the time, remember. If the market stays weak here, then Oct hike disappears and so soon enough will Oct vol. as well, driving another mini melt-up. It's going to be just as tedious as the last few month though....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78558635478316571072015-09-19T02:33:09.599+01:002015-09-19T02:33:09.599+01:00What is the Fed "data dependency" exactl...What is the Fed "data dependency" exactly? Maybe it really just means equity-index data. It's not like the market wasn't expecting it with 2y at over 0.8%, the highest since March 2011, just to get smacked down again. So if they're trying to protect something, they're actually doing more damage by not doing what the market wants at this point. October deadline for me and then I'm done (mentally) with waiting. I suspect to be part of a much larger crowd too.<br /><br />September <a href="http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/CLI-Sept15.pdf" rel="nofollow">LEIs</a>, like the last ones in August still point India and EZ the having the only acceleration now. I've been relatively heavy cash for months (for a buy and holder type) but I'll just reiterate that it's tempting to see the seeming value in EZ equites at this juncture. Of course the not-so-popular subject, namely migrant crisis might have some pain in storage for Q3 earnings (borders shutting down doesn't usually sound promising and might go on for a while longer considering the utterly inept, even idiotic EU leadership) but I just think it's one more reason for Draghi to execute his fantasies, very soon even. <br /><br />Still, considering the lack of real conviction which has been the case for a relatively long time, maybe MM words of wisdom are still the smartest ones at this juncture: "another 10-15% washout will make it a lot easier to be constructive."hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63330019839869498942015-09-18T23:53:16.630+01:002015-09-18T23:53:16.630+01:00Nico,
Interesting little outburst:
- "FM... m...Nico,<br />Interesting little outburst:<br />- "<i>FM... markets are fucked... by retarded JBTFDers like you...</i>" <br />Yes, I'm sure FM wishes he could personally control the world's equity markets but unfortunately even he cannot quite manage that - however feel free to keep personalizing things that way.<br />- "<i>You are an idiot... let 'trademark FM' embody the viciously abnormal new new new normal that is the soon gone QE era... immature pricks like you have ruined it...</i>"<br />FM's been called worse I'm sure. But your incessant angst regarding QE etc, leads me to believe that you must have lost a great deal of money trading in recent years. Hopefully I'm wrong, either way, I'll pass on the suggestion that he emulate the great maturity you have expressed here.<br />- "<i>You are the Donald Trump of day trading</i>"<br />FM would like this one - Trump being the (outspoken) outsider who is currently outperforming...<br />- "<i>...this era of agonising idiocy is made by and for you so embrace it... your fleecing investors...</i>"<br />Back to that angst regarding current market conditions again? Oh, and nice factual comment about fleecing investors there too... objective comments not being this blog's strong point of late...<br /><br />So tantrum aside, you basically wish not to have FM, or anyone who works with him, comment on this blog? No problem.<br /><br />-----<br /><br />Anon 7:20 PM - Thanks for your comment & evilspeculator blog reference. I'll pass it on.Ghost of FunnyMoneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41693142910088154802015-09-18T23:06:41.413+01:002015-09-18T23:06:41.413+01:00Yep, they probably all are. And will probably be l...Yep, they probably all are. And will probably be looked at in the EU on back of it too. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34536872935582568452015-09-18T22:56:46.862+01:002015-09-18T22:56:46.862+01:00One thing is for certain, it will interesting to s...One thing is for certain, it will interesting to see what the VW share does on Monday, already down 30 %from the high!CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71441086643243747832015-09-18T22:55:13.970+01:002015-09-18T22:55:13.970+01:00I agree with Signalman, or more specifically, this...I agree with Signalman, or more specifically, this could easily turn into a he says, she says about emission testing etc. The thing is; this is exactly like the banks. The regulator expects a settlement, VW probably want to settle too, cue some lawyers and we have a transfer of money from VW to US car owners ... Plus some slightly more well off lawyers, rinse, repeat ... CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43559561678029333012015-09-18T22:41:04.445+01:002015-09-18T22:41:04.445+01:00Also "bowdlerise an aparté" is brillant,...Also "bowdlerise an aparté" is brillant, gonna have to remember that one...Signalmannoreply@blogger.com