tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2125556534031015721..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Uh ohMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75630316885323808242007-02-27T14:23:00.000+00:002007-02-27T14:23:00.000+00:00As often is the case, we don't actually disagree m...As often is the case, we don't actually disagree much, if at all. I posted that right before bed, and I am no longer sure it makes sense. While market action could fit both with a risk-aversion move or with the US putting the "landing" into "soft landing", the moves in carry to suggest more your scenario a) than c) from the next post.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68193652525850796822007-02-27T08:43:00.000+00:002007-02-27T08:43:00.000+00:00I think what you find in these circumstances is th...I think what you find in these circumstances is that what starts out as an isolated US event swiftly impacts the ROW.<BR/><BR/>The fact that USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, and even non carry junk like EUR/CZK are all up on the day is suggestive of a degree of risk aversion. Certainly there appears to be a fair amount of 'wtf?!?!' going on in the street.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82021074781124018432007-02-27T08:29:00.000+00:002007-02-27T08:29:00.000+00:00How 'bout that Yen/$, huh?I'm not sure this is ris...How 'bout that Yen/$, huh?<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure this is risk aversion of itself. The USD is getting pummeled across my screen just now, and viz ES. I think someone decided durable goods, consumer confidence and/or (my big bet) existing home sales will be fugly. This is a US story to me. In the end that's a risk-aversion play as well, but still.<BR/><BR/>Funny how my high-2s Q4 GDP call now looks to be overoptimistic after initially appearing a huge undershoot. H2 is a ways off yet.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.com